trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 06/12/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Tuesday, December 6, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Your average daily soap opera tonight will most likely hold more plot twists than markets do today. European equity markets whipsawed in a tight range just below the zero point and WS opens flat in a session devoid of news and economic data. Core bonds gained with US Treasuries underperforming Bunds. US yields initially gave back some of yesterday’s post-ISM gains but erased those in early US dealings. The long end slightly outperforms, causing the inversion to deepen further. German yields drop 5.2 …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 06/12/2022 via Trader Talent

Tuesday, 06 December 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •            “All” it took for US investors to digest Friday’s strong payrolls was a weekend of time, another eye-opening WSJ article and a strong US non-manufacturing ISM. Recall that the initial post-payrolls move (higher yields, stronger dollar, weaker stocks) was surprisingly undone by last week’s US closing bell. The trading week yesterday still started with some positive Asian vibes related to looser Chinese Covid-moves, but morphed to a very neutral setting in Europe and eventually a risk-off climate in the US. The WSJ emphasized that the biggest …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 05/12/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Monday, December 5, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • When the Fed wants to make some last-minute changes to market positioning going into a Fed policy meeting, they often make use of their favorite news media, the Wall Street Journal, to dot the I’s and cross the T’s. It didn’t surprise us to read exactly that today. “Brisk wage growth could lead officials to consider raising their policy rate above 5% in 2023 to fight inflation”. The message strokes with Fed guidance of late, but is completely ignored by markets. Last week’s …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 05/12/2022 via Trader Talent

Monday, 5 December 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          The reaction to Friday’s strong payrolls report is telling. Net job growth beat consensus at 263k with average hourly earnings growth accelerating to 0.6% M/M and 5.1% Y/Y. The unemployment rate stabilized at 3.7%, though a lower participation rate helped. The payrolls confirm the still red hot US labour market and seemed to serve as the perfect excuse to stop current corrections on bond/FX/stock markets going into the final Fed policy meeting of the year. In a first reaction, this all played out: the dollar firmed, …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 02/12/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Friday, December 2, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • SCREEEEEECH! The core bond rally came to a screeching halt at the end of this week. In defiance of the slightly disappointing ADP job report, November US payrolls easily surpassed consensus estimates. US yields propel between 8.9 bps (30y) and 13.5 bps (2y) higher. The critical 10y yield support at 3.5% was saved by the bell. German yields in the US slipstream swapped intraday losses of more than 6 bps for gains up to 3 bps. Over there, the 10y was at risk …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 02/12/2022 via Trader Talent

Friday, 2 December 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Yesterday, the post-Powell bond rally simply continued as markets read US data as supporting the case for the Fed to slow its anti-inflationary campaign in December and maybe also at Q1 2023 meetings. US data were mixed, but in line with the recent reaction function, soft data outweighed. Challenger job cuts jumped sharply, mainly as companies are cutting costs. Weekly jobless claims improved (225k from 241k), but continuing claims, which recently got more attention as a pointer for the labour market, rose further. October spending (0.8% …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 01/12/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Thursday, December 1, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Yesterday’s (perceived) soft speech of Fed chair Powell (slowing the pace of rate hikes to 50 bps in December) at that time triggered a sharp rally both on US bond and equity markets (Nasdaq +4.41%). Today’s reaction in Asian and Europe was much more modest/diffuse. Gains on Asian markets were mostly limited to about 1.0%, even as comments from Chinese officials suggested a less strict anti-Covid approach going forward. European equities are also lagging far behind yesterday’s US gains (0.5%-1.0%). At the same …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 01/12/2022 via Trader Talent

Thursday, 1 December 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Yesterday, EMU November headline CPI eased more than expected from 10.6% to 10.0%, but didn’t came as a surprise after member states’ data published on Wednesday. Core inflation holding stubbornly high at 5.0% even caused a temporary rebound in German/EUM yields (about 5.0 bps), but the gains were largely reversed at the close (German 2-y +2.3 bps, 30-y unchanged). Early in US dealings, US yields held a tentative upward bias going into Fed Powell’s speech even as ADP job growth (127k from 239k) eased more than …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 30/11/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Wednesday, November 30, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • European inflation eased a little more than expected from 10.6% to 10% in November vs 10.4% expected. The downside surprise wasn’t really one after several national readings flagging the possibility of this to happen. Energy and services costs helped ease the number, even as food prices rose more quickly. Markets seemed to focus more on the core reading instead as ECB governors, including de Guindos on Tuesday, recently shifted the focus from headline to core inflation. This gauge stabilized at 5% y/y, suggesting …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 30/11/2022 via Trader Talent

Wednesday, 30 November 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          First releases of EMU November CPI in several EMU members states fueled the debate whether or not EMU inflation has reached its peak. Spanish headline inflation dropped faster than expected (HICP -0.5% M/M and 6.6% Y/Y, from 7.1% Y/Y). Belgian CPI showed a similar picture (-0.23% M/M to 10.63% Y/Y, from 12,27%). However, in both cases core inflation continued to rise. German regional inflation data suggested a substantial slowdown, but in the end, the harmonized measure only eased to 0.0% M/M and 11.3% Y/Y (from 11,6%), …