trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 03/02/2022 via Trader Talent

Thursday, 3 February 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          You could almost hear jaw drops in Frankfurt yesterday. European inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 5.1% y/y in January, defying expectations for a base-effect driven decline. Core inflation fell by less than hoped for, to 2.3%. Euro area money markets stepped up rate hike bets ahead of the ECB meeting (today). They now discount a total of +-25 bps rate increases by the end of this year. Short-term bond rates added 1.2-2.2 bps (2y-5y German Bund) and 2.7-3.4 bps (2y-5y swap). The long end outperformed, remaining unchanged …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 02/02/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Wednesday, February 2, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • The US dollar extends this week’s losses. It’s the worst performing currency, even losing out against JPY and CHF in spite of the risk rebound of the past days. The trade-weighted dollar now changes hands at 96, exactly where it was trading ahead of last week’s hawkish FOMC meeting. In between, it set a new recovery high at 97.27. The same goes for EUR/USD which is back at 1.13+ after dipping to 1.1121 on Friday. There’s no strong driver for this USD-reversal, but it …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 02/02/2022 via Trader Talent

Wednesday, 2 February 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          The most interesting action occurred on German bond markets yesterday. Yields surged further north in the wake of the much smaller-than-expected HICP decline. The short end of the curve underperformed with the 2y yield gapping another 5.8 bps higher to -0.47%. It closed above the -0.50% ECB deposit rate for the first time since 2016. Yields further down the curve added 1.8 bps (5y) over 2.6 bps (10y) to 3.8 bps (30y) with new recovery highs for the former two. Economic data in the US had …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 01/02/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Tuesday, February 1, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Short-term yields in the US and Europe finally took a breather after a sharp hawkish repositioning. Fed Powell at last week’s policy meeting signaled the Fed would accelerate policy normalization as inflation is rising faster than expected and probably will last longer than the Fed anticipated until now. Powell’s view for sure prevails within the Fed. However, after Raphael Bostic yesterday opened the debate on a 50 bps rate hike in March, other colleagues (George, Daly) overnight advocated to stick to a gradual …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 01/02/2022 via Trader Talent

Tuesday, 1 February 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Wall Street tried to shrug off a rough month by printing impressive back-to-back gains. The Nasdaq outperformed, eking out another 3%+ gain. January is still the worst month for the tech-heavy index since March 2020 though. US yields rose with the belly outperforming the wings. The short end added 1.5 bps even as some Fed governors including Daly leaned against current market expectations of five rate hikes. Fed’s Esther George in an interview preferred “more aggressive action on the balance sheet [that] could allow for a …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 31/01/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Monday, January 31, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Spanish January inflation numbers and German (regional) data soon sent the same message: European inflation won’t fall back as much as thought at the start of the year. The Spanish setback, related to a sharp rise in the electricity bill in January last year, was compensated for by rising core prices such as food and utilities. Downward tax-related German price pressure was partly offset by soaring energy prices and rising costs of services. Spanish and German national readings (EU harmonized) came in at …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 31/01/2022 via Trader Talent

Monday, 31 January 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          US stock markets ended the week in the way they started: with serious volatility. Opening gains quickly faded into <1% declines before a furious late-session rally hurled the likes of the Nasdaq to more than 3% higher. Solid big-tech earnings (Apple) helped counter geopolitical and Fed policy uncertainty. Core bonds parted ways. USTs gained, bull steepening the curve with changes ranging from -2.6 to 4.6 bps at the short end and -1.8 to -2.9 bps for long tenors. German yields added 0.4 bps (2y) to 1.4 …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 28/01/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Friday, January 28, 2022 Daily Market Overview Markets • Risk sentiment remains shaky with main European indices losing up to 2%. The EuroStoxx 50 does hold above the lows from the start of the week (4035) and the incoming mild uptrend line / neckline multiple top formation (4051). Losing those levels would be disastrous from a technical point of view and introduce the start of a new selling wave. We understand investor caution going into the weekend given the instability in the Russia/Ukraine conflict and following this week’s hawkish Fed message. US equity futures turned Apple-led gains into losses and …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 24/01/2022 via Trader Talent

Monday, 24 January 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Key US equity indices lost another 2% on Friday and more importantly high-level support marks. The S&P fell below the neckline of a triple top formation at 4495, suggesting more downward potential towards the October low of 4279 with the final target of the technical formation even at 4172. The tech-index Nasdaq was already in correction modus (>10% from all-time top in November), but now lost the neckline of a huge double top formation which served as resistance in H1 2021 (14175). The move lower suggests …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 21/01/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Friday, January 21, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • European stock markets can’t escape the rot today. Main indices lose up to 2% and more. The EuroStoxx 50 trades below first support at 4231. A sustained break paves the way to the low 4000-zone. It will be a key session for US indices as well. They open around 0.5% weaker. The S&P yesterday closed below the neck line of a triple top formation at 4495. A sustained break lower gives more downward potential towards the October low of 4279 with the final target …