Sunset

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

Daily Market Overview

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Markets

• Two main stories were running the show on markets today. Both of them supported the ongoing core bond sell-off which recently concentrated on European markets. Germany initiated the first phase of a three-staged emergency plan to secure natural gas supplies (see below). Spooked markets send Dutch gas prices about 10% higher while Brent oil adds 3.4% in a spill-over move. Both boost inflation expectations for a tenth day (!) straight to a new 14-year high (2.84%). Today’s national inflation readings (March) are testament to how such soaring commodity prices actually affect realized price trends. Belgian CPI in March accelerated from 8.04% to 8.31% y/y (see below for details). Spanish HICP soared to a whopping, off the charts 9.8%. In Germany, prices rose 7.6% measured via the European approach, up from 5.5% and crushing the 6.8% estimate. Individual state readings reveal energy, transportation and housing costs (which include utility bills) as some of the biggest contributors. All this points to big upward risks to the EMU release due on Friday and, more than anything else, means the ECB cannot delay the long-overdue policy normalization any longer. ECB’s Kazimir (“wish that we exit the territory of negative rates within a year at the latest), Muller (“it’s right to ask whether such low interest rates are still appropriate) and Makhlouf (“we are concerned at the impact of inflation”) agree. President Lagarde stuck to the “optionality, gradualism, flexibility” mantra but we know she knows better. Money markets bring forward rate hike bets (> three 25 bps increases this year) as well as increase the expected peak policy rate (near 1.5% end next year) today. It brings about another European yield curve bear flattening. Changes in Germany range from +6 bps (30y) to 11 bps (2y). Swap yields add 6-7 bps at the front end and 5 bps in long tenors. The US curve steepens marginally with moves from flat to +3.5 bps, unbothered by a spot-on yet strong ADP job report (455k vs 450k consensus). These more limited moves hide an intraday recovery of 6-7 bps though.

• Markets have long frontloaded Fed tightening. This favoured the dollar over many of its peers. We are now witnessing the same with respect to the ECB and the euro. EUR/USD (1.1139) extends yesterday’s gains. It escapes from a bullish ascending triangle via the 1.1121 resistance (January interim low) level. Granted, dollar weakness is at play too. EUR/GBP is going for a second test of the 0.847 resistance. A break higher would hurl the pair back in the sideways trading range that long dominated in 2021. The Japanese yen is holding up pretty well despite rising core bond yields and commodity prices. The only in theory supporting factor is the fragile equity environment (stocks down 1% in Europe). USD/JPY inches below 122.
 
News Headlines

• German economy minister Habeck this morning initiated the first (“early warning”) of three phases of an emergency plan in case of a Russian gas cut-off. Current gas stocks cover approximately 20 days of forward consumption. Habeck called on firms and individuals to try and reduce energy consumption as much as possible. His office will also create a crisis team to deal with the stability of future gas supply. In the third and final phase, the state will intervene and regulate the gas flow. The warning comes because of the stand-off on Russia’s demand for “hostile states” to pay EUR and USD-denominated gas contracts in rubles. Gas prices rise by another 5%-10% today. The main European benchmark (TTF nat gas future) trades again at €120/megawatt-hour from an €110 opening.

• Belgian inflation rises from 8.04% Y/Y in February to 8.31% Y/Y in March, its highest level since March 1983. Inflation based on the national health index goes from 7.56% Y/Y to 7.68% Y/Y. The high inflation remains largely due to energy prices which have an annual inflation rate of 57.22% and contribute 4.82 percentage points. Core inflation rose from 3.28% Y/Y to 3.75% Y/Y. Inflation for food products (including alcoholic beverages) stands at 4.63% this month, compared to 3.84% last month. Inflation for services has risen to 3.78% from 3.20%. Inflation for rents has increased from 2.49% to 2.64%.
 

Graphs & Table

European 2y swap yield (weekly) on track for a fourth and biggest monthly increase (> 60 bps) since the creation of the monetary union.

EUR/USD: forces a break out of the bullish triangle via 1.1121 resistance level.

Dutch gas prices jump about 10% amid supply disruption/rationing fears.

EuroStoxx50: test of psychological 4k barrier fails for now.

Note: All times and dates are CET. More reports are available at KBCEconomics.be which you may sign up to.

This document has been prepared by the KBC Economics Markets desk and has not been produced by the Research department. The desk consists of Mathias Van der Jeugt, Peter Wuyts and Mathias Janssens, analists at KBC Bank N.V., which is regulated by the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA).
These market recommendations are the result of qualitative analysis, incorporating room for past experiences and personal assessments. The views are based on current market circumstances and can change any moment. The most prominent input comes from publicly available data, financial news, economic and monetary policies and commonly used technical analysis.
The KBC Economics – Markets desk has used reasonable efforts to obtain this information from sources which it believes to be reliable but the contents of this document have been prepared without any substantive analysis being undertaken into these sources.
It has not been assessed as to whether or not these insights would be suitable for any particular investor.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and can be opposite to previous recommendations due to changed market conditions.
The authors of this recommendation do not warrant the accuracy, completeness or value (commercial or otherwise) of any recommendation. Neither are the authors liable to those who receive these recommendations for the content of it or for any loss or damage arising (whether in tort (including negligence), breach of contract, breach of statutory duty or otherwise) from any actions or omissions of the authors in reliance on any recommendation, or for any claim whatsoever in respect of the content of, or information contained in, any recommendation. Any opinions expressed herein reflect the judgement at the time the investment recommendation was prepared and are subject to change without notice.
Given the nature of this advice (linked to currencies and interest rates) , the advice is overall not specific in nature.   As such there is no reference to any corporate finance contract and as such there is no 12 month overview based on the different advices.
This document is only valid during a very  limited period of time, due to rapidly changing market conditions.

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