On 01/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets moved slightly higher as investors digested economic data, following a volatile trading session where the Dow led the move higher, after rallying 400 points off its morning low, to end the session with a gain of 0.61%. Markets digested economic data and Federal Reserve speakers. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he expects to see the domestic jobs market unclog by the end of the summer with really good numbers. Then, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that he could see the central bank begin tapering asset purchases as early as this year. ADP employment change data came in above estimates, indicating that the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in June. This marked the seventh straight month of job gains for the U.S. economy. The ADP data served as a precursor to the Labour Department’s employment data, which come out tomorrow. That release will be closely watched for clues on the labour market’s (and the broader economy’s) recovery. European Markets closed lower. Euro-Zone preliminary Consumer Price Index numbers for June were in line with expectations, but fell versus May, indicating inflation may be starting to moderate. OPEC released a report saying that the oil market could face a glut of supply if it increases production too quickly. This indicates that the group may keep production tight. The United Nations said global tourism likely will not hit pre-pandemic levels until 2023, hurting the economic recoveries of some countries. In Asia, China’s official composite Purchasing Managers’ Index data for June were weaker than expected, but remained in expansion territory, as the pace of non-manufacturing growth slowed. Japan’s May preliminary industrial production figures disappointed, falling versus April on a month-over-month basis, as social-distancing restrictions weighed on domestic demand. South Korea’s industrial production for May missed expectations, but rose versus April, as automobile production dropped on a shortage of semiconductors. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.74% higher after OPEC made comments indicating that it would not flood the market with supply, while Bitcoin fell 5% after encountering strong resistance at $36,000.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 236 points yesterday to close June with a gain of 1366 points, after making 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.13% higher at a price of 4297.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 210 points higher for a 0.61% gain at a price of 34,502
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.12% lower at a price of 14,554.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.38% lower at a price of 28,683.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.1859.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.3816.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5%, closing at $111.01.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.19%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.72%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower at 1.47%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.74% higher at $73.89 a barrel
Gold closed 0.46% higher at $1,773.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales which rose 4.2% versus +5% expected. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. At 1.30 pm we have U.S Weekly Jobless Claims and Markit Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm, Finally, at 3.00 pm we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending.
September S&P 500
Frustratingly, the S&P just missed my 4266 buy level with a 4269 low print, before rallying overnight to my 4297 sell level. I am still short and I will now add to this position at 4311 while leaving my 4321 ‘’Closing Price Stop’’ unchanged. My T/P level on this short position will be 4290. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. The S&P has strong support from 4265/4280 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 4253 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4291.
Yesterday, the Euro traded lower to my 1.1855 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this trade at 1.1805 while leaving my 1.1775 stop unchanged. My T/P level will now be lowered to 11880.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar traded higher to my 92.35 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this trade at 92.85 with the same 93.10 tight stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 92.20.
The DAX got hit hard after I posted yesterday morning, trading lower to my 15460 buy level. As I do not trust the price movement in the DAX, believing this market could tank at any moment, I covered this position for a small loss at 15455. As it turned out I was wrong to take a loss with the DAX trading higher at 15590 this morning. Today, I will be a small buyer from 15380/15440 with a 15315 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15485.
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 6945 buy level before rallying to my 6970 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE continues to trade heavy. We have support from 6890/6950 where I will again be a buyer with a 6845 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6980.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow closed at its highest level in three weeks after trading in a wide range yesterday. Initially the Dow traded lower to my 34140 buy level before rallying to my revised 34211 T/P level. The rally continued throughout the U.S Session before accelerating into the close, hitting my 34550 sell level. As I did not want to be short overnight, I covered this position at my 34520 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has trendline resistance at 34849. This level needs to hold or else the Bulls will regain control. The McClellan Oscillator again closed in negative territory with a print of -41, implying that the internals are still weak. Today, I will be a seller from 34750/34910 with a 35025 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has strong support from 34410/34250 and I will be a buyer in this area with a 34095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34650. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34520.
Yesterday we can call the Month-End, Quarter- End, Half -Year – End Rally with all assets advancing. Stocks, U.S. Treasury Bonds, Commodity Indexes Precious Metals and the U.S Dollar all closing the day higher. The one interesting hold-out to a burst of buying was the NASDAQ, which closed slightly lower on a day that there was little or no movement in the NDX which had its tightest trading range of the year. However, my NASDAQ plan did work well with the market initially trading lower to my 14550 T/P level on Tuesday’s late 14580 short position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the market again at 14590 before we traded lower to my 14530 T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has resistance from 14620/14710 where I will again be a seller with a 14805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the market is still from 14260/14180 with the same 14095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14550. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14330.
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 172.70 sell level before trading lower to my 172.45 T/P level this morning and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 172.80/173.20 with the same 173.41 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.55.
Gold Rolling Contract
Even though Gold is trading higher this morning I will not raise my buy level, leaving it unchanged at 1722/1736 with the same 1709 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1745
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 25.10/25.80 with a higher 24.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.10.
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