On 01/09/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets bounced around again, with plenty of two-way trading, before ending yesterday with small losses, led by the S&P which closed 0.14% lower. Markets continued their choppy trade. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said she needs more evidence inflation will exceed 2% for some time before accepting it has met the central bank’s goal. This went against recent commentary from other Federal Reserve presidents. Economic data was weak for the second straight day. Both Consumer Confidence and Chicago Fed PMI missed estimates in their most recent readings. It was a quiet day otherwise. Investors are still looking forward to the employment data releases later in the week for any clues on the economic recovery and possible Fed policy changes. European Markets closed lower. Euro-Zone Preliminary Consumer Price index data for August was stronger than expected, rising versus July, due to rising food and energy costs. European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said high inflation would only be temporary, with many of the historical low price trends still intact. French consumer spending for July unexpectedly contracted, as money spent on manufactured goods turned negative for the first time in several months. In Asia, China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for August fell back into contraction territory for the first time since February 2020, as services sector activity slowed. Japan’s preliminary industrial production figures for July were stronger than expected, but declined on a month-over-month basis as supply-chain issues weighed. China’s currency regulator was said to question financial institutions whether they’re hedged for yuan volatility, implying the currency’s value could tumble in the near term. South Korea’s First Vice Finance Minister Lee Eog-weon said the government would be closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase tapering plans for financial market volatility. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.3% as weak Chinese economic data sparked concerns of falling demand, while Bitcoin closed 3% lower on little news.
To mark my 2375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 296 points yesterday, closing August with a gain of 1543 points, having gained 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.14% lower at a price of 4522.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 39 points lower for a 0.11% loss at a price of 35,360.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.14% lower at a price of 15,582.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.29% higher at a price of 28,451
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1792.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.3750.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $110.16.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at -0.38%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 0.62%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points higher at 1.32%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.3% lower at $68.77 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.15% higher at $1,817.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales for July, which slumped 5.1% versus -0.9% expected. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed at 1.15 pm by U.S. ADP Employment Change, which will be closely watched ahead of Friday’s NFP. Finally, at 2.45 pm we have U.S. Manufacturing PMI.
September S&P 500
The idea that S&P would find strong resistance at the 4540/4550 area proved correct as the S&P traded lower to my 4524 T/P level on yesterday morning’s 4541 short position. The S&P is already trading 16 Handles higher than last night’s Chicago close. I still believe that after 10 months of consecutive gains that we will finally get a meaningful correction in September. The S&P has strong resistance from 4535/4560 and I have gone short here this morning at a price of 4538. I will add to this trade at 4560 with a 4571 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 4477/4492 where I will be a buyer with a 4465 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My T/P level on my short S&P position will be 4525. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4504.
No Change. I am still a small buyer from 1.1720/1.1760 with the same 1.1673 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1790.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market continues to trade in narrow ranges which it has done for most of the Summer. The Dollar has short-term resistance from 93.10/93.60 where I will be a seller with a 94.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.85.
My DAX plan worked really well as the market traded to a morning high of 16000 before falling 250 points. This move lower generated a Key Downside Reversal. So far, in 2021 none of these KDRs have worked as Central Banks have continued to buy any meaningful sell-off. After my 15990 sell level was triggered, unfortunately I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 15970 and I am still flat. The reason I exited this position was because I had enough risk with my short S&P and NASDAQ positions at that time. This morning the DAX is trading 140 points higher from yesterday’s low at a price of 15920. We have resistance from 16020/16090 where I will again be a seller with a 16175 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15970.
After the FTSE traded lower to my 7080 buy level I covered this position for a small gain at 7091 as I wanted to be flat overnight. This morning the FTSE is opening higher at 7145. We have support from 7040/7090 where I will again be a buyer with a 6995 stop. I still do not to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7125.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 35295 buy level before rallying to my 35365 revised T/P level and I am now flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 35120/35270 with the same tight 34895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has massive resistance from 35850/36050 and I will be an aggressive seller in this area with the same 36305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35380. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35600.
Thankfully, the NASDAQ traded lower to my 15535 revised T/P level on my 15560 average short position from Monday and I am still flat. This morning the NASDAQ is threatening to make yet another new all-time high, trading at 15640, as I go to press. We have strong resistance from 15690/15780 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 15905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15625.
The BUND just missed my 176.70 sell level before having a meaningful sell-off that saw yields rise by six basis points. I will now lower my sell level to 175.90/176.40 with a lower 176.75 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 175.55.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a small buyer from 1770/1785 with the same 1759 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1792
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 22.90/23.50 with the same 22.55 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.85.
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