On 01/10/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets fell as Jobless Claims picked up again, finishing yesterday’s session lower, led by the Dow’s fall of 1.59%. Markets opened higher before declining throughout the day. Jobless Claims rose again, coming in above estimates. This marks the third straight week of increases for jobless claims. Even with the increases, claims still are close to the post-pandemic low set earlier in the month. In terms of other economic data, Chicago Fed manufacturing PMI fell more than expected with weakness in order backlogs. Survey respondents also highlighted ongoing supply-chain issues. This continued the recent trend of choppy U.S. economic data, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the economic recovery. Congress was said to come to an agreement on a stopgap spending bill, keeping the government in operation into December. But the infrastructure bill, which is scheduled to be voted on today, still has an uncertain path. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said it is paying close attention to recent price increases and there is no reason the issue won’t pass. French preliminary consumer price index (“CPI”) data for September was weaker than expected, declining versus August, as food and services costs contracted. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that ongoing supply-chain disruptions were hurting the country’s economic recovery. In Asia, China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) data for September fell into contraction territory, implying the government may need to increase economic support. People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang suggested to a meeting of local government officials they take steps to stabilise provincial housing markets and protect the rights of home buyers. Japan’s preliminary industrial production figures for August were weaker than anticipated, falling versus July, as supply-chain constraints hurt auto production. South Korea’s manufacturing confidence index numbers for October fell versus September as companies worried about weakening domestic demand. Elsewhere, Gold rallied 1.85% as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy was still far from full employment, indicating continued easy-money policies, while Bitcoin surged over 6% after Powell said that the Fed was not looking into banning cryptocurrencies.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 171 points yesterday, but still made 2866 points in September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.19% lower at a price of 4307.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 546 points lower for a 1.59% loss at a price of 33,843.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.43% lower at a price of 14,689.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.31% lower at a price of 28,771.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1585.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.3471.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.5%, closing at $111.28.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.21%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 1.02%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points lower at 1.48%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.27% higher at $75.03 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.85% higher at $1,756.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German August Retail Sales which rose 1.1% versus +1.5% expected. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-zone CPI at 10.00 am, U.S. Personal Income/Spending at 1.30 pm. and Markit Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and ISM Manufacturing.
December S&P 500
The S&P is now trading 115 Handles Lower from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. This is a huge move with US Indices now severely oversold. The Fear & Greed Index closed last nighty with a reading of ‘’Extreme Fear’’. This Index will open lower given the 35 Handle sell-off so far overnight. As you can see from my commentary above, the Nikkei closed over 600 points lower despite the Bank of Japan buying equity ETF’s The S&P is getting close to my 4221 3Rd Standard Deviation, where I expect a decent rally to occur. Yesterday, my S&P plan did not work well as after I bought the market at an average rate of 4336 we saw an aggressive sell-off in the last hour of trading, stopping me out near the close at a price of 4311 and I am now flat. The S&P has support from 4235/4255 where I will again be a buyer with a 4219 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I cannot see the S&P leaving another ‘’Open Gap’’ without been filled. If the S&P trades lower, I will be an aggressive buyer from 4185/4205 with a wider 4169 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4272. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 4240.
No Change. I am still long at 1.1620 as I look to add to this trade at a price of 1.1560. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.1645 while leaving my 1.1525 stop unchanged.
December Dollar Index
No Change. I am still short at 93.90 with the same 94.51 stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 93.80.
After the DAX traded lower to my 15240 buy level I emailed my Platinum Members at 7.45 pm last night to exit this trade at 15272 and I am still flat. Unfortunately, I should have exited my long S&P position at the same time. This morning the DAX is trading 270 points lower at 15,000. We have support from 14860/14940 where I will again be a buyer with a 14795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15005.
Just like the DAX above, after the FTSE hit my 7050 buy level I covered this position at my revised 7067 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the FTSE is trading slightly lower at 6980. We have support from 6890/6950 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 6855 stop. Given the continued weakness in Sterling, I do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6990.
Dow Rolling Contract
It is hard to believe that I sold the Dow yesterday morning at 34630 before taking a 50 point gain, to see the Dow trading over 1000 points lower this morning. Thankfully we had no buy level in this market yesterday. The Dow is now severely oversold with strong support from 33280/33480 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 33145 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 33710.
The NASDAQ just missed my initial 15920 sell level before selling off to hit a low so far this morning at 14551 The NASDAQ has strong support from 14440/15520 where I will also be an aggressive buyer with a 14355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15610.
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 169.10/169.50 with a higher 168.75 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 169.80.
Gold Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, Gold missed my buy level by $5 before having a $35 rally as yet again the Daily Sentiment Indicator proved what a valuable technical signal it is. I will now raise my buy level to 1717/1732 with a wider 1699 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1741.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market rallying to my 22.05 T/P level on my 21.75 average long position and I am now flat. Silver has short-term support from 21.30/21.90 where I will again be a buyer with a 20.75 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 22.40.
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