On 01/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets traded in a narrow range for most of Friday’s session before surging in the last 20 minutes of trading, as both the NDX and S&P 500 closed at new all-time highs. The NDX led the gains closing 0.46% higher. Markets opened lower on big tech earnings. Both Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) endorsed conservative fourth-quarter outlooks, warning that supply-chain disruptions weighed on revenue potential. Since these are two of the largest weightings in the S&P 500, they weighed on broader markets. In terms of economic data, core PCE – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – matched estimates in October. And it also fell to the lowest month-over-month change since February, suggesting that inflation pressures may be easing. Elsewhere, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose from the prior month as consumers look to increase spending ahead of the holiday season. These positive data points helped to offset some of the drawdown from the big tech companies. In the S&P 500, seven of 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets also closed higher. Euro-Zone preliminary gross domestic product (“GDP”) data for the third quarter was stronger than anticipated, as COVID vaccination uptake boosted activity. Euro-Zone preliminary consumer price index data for October exceeded expectations as energy prices surged. The British government warned that COVID-19 restrictions could return in Wales if it does not begin to see daily cases drop. In Asia, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said she is trying to hold regular dialogue with China in an attempt to resolve trade tensions. The People’s Bank of China added roughly $31.3 billion worth of funds to the financial system in an attempt to increase bank liquidity. Japan’s Industrial Production data for September disappointed, declining for the third straight month due to falling car production. South Korea’s Industrial Production figures for September were weaker than expected, falling versus August, as declining automobile and electrical equipment activity weighed. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.53% as crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma fell to the lowest level in three years, while Gold fell 1.03% on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 93 points on Friday, ending October with a gain of 1028 points after making 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.19% higher at a price of 4605.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 89 points higher for a 0.25% gain at a price of 35,819.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.46% higher at a price of 15,850.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.25% higher at a price of 28,892.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% higher.
The Euro closed 1.2% lower at $1.1551.
The British Pound closed 0.8% lower at 1.3692.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $113.92.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at -0.11%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 1.03%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower at 1.56%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.53% higher at $83.52 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.03% lower at $1,782.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales at 7.00 am, followed by U.K. Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9.30 am. With the U.S. not changing clocks until next weekend, American Markets will open and close an hour earlier, Dublin time for the week. We have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 1.45 pm. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending at 2.00 pm.
December S&P 500
The S&P closed at a new all-time high on Friday, despite increased negative divergence, driven higher by a few technology stocks while the rest of the components continue to struggle. Internally, the market was weak as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which only closed slightly positive with a +40 print. As I mentioned on Friday, I cannot buy a vertical market but we still have to respect the price action. After the S&P hit my 4595 sell level we saw a small 10 Handle sell-off. As I wanted to be flat over the weekend I covered this position at my 4592 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. The break and close over 4570 is short-term bullish. Today, I will be a small buyer from 4565/4580 with a 4553 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 4619/4634 where I will be a seller with a 4651 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4592. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4608.
The volatility in the Euro from Thursday lunch time until Friday’s close was stunning with the Euro falling over 1.2%, completely reversing Thursday’s 0.8% rise following the Lagarde Press Conference. Friday’s sell-off saw my 1.1635 T/P level filled on my 1.1660 short position and I am now flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.1440/1.1490 where I will be a strong buyer with a 1.1395 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1530.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar fell just shy of my 92.90 buy level before rallying 100 points to sit at 94.15 as I go to press. We have strong resistance from 94.45/94.95 where I will be a seller with a 95.31 tight stop .If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 94.20.
I am still flat the DAX as the market continues to hold the key 15400 support level. We have short-term support from 15510/15580 and I will raise my buy level to this area with a 15445 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15625.
I am still flat the FTSE as the market again fell shy of my sell range. With US Indexes trading higher this morning, I will now raise my sell range to 7275/7315 with a higher 7351 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If I am take short I will have a T/P level at 7245.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as the market looks to break above its October high. I will now raise my buy level to 35550/35720 with a higher 35495 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my sell level to 36080/36250 with a 36425 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35850. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35960.
After the NASDAQ traded higher to my 15805 initial sell level, we had a small sell-off enabling me to cover this position at my 15785 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The NDX is severely overbought after rising 1700 points in the past three weeks. We have resistance from 15930/16020 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 16105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15860
Just before lunch on Friday, I was stopped out of my 169.00 long position at 168.25. Subsequently, I bought the Bund again at 167.75 (as emailed to my Platinum Members), before the Bund rallied to my 168.15 T/P level and I am now flat. I just cannot see the ECB allowing Bund yields to rise further given the level of European Debt. Today, I will again be a buyer from 167.30/167.80 with a 166.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 168.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold fell shy of my 1775 buy level before having a small rally into the New York close and I am still flat. As I am still long Silver, I will now lower my buy level to 1750/1765 with a 1739 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1773.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at 24.00 with the same 24.30 stop. I will not add to this position, thus leaving my 23.49 stop unchanged.
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