U.S. Equity Markets were volatile on the first day of a new month, trading in a wide range, which saw the VIX close higher by 7%. Markets bounced around to start the week. Federal Reserve speakers were a main focus yesterday. In an interview with the Financial Times, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the labour market is far tighter than NonFarm payroll data would suggest. If Bullard is seeing a tight labour market, there is a good chance that that is what is playing out in the economy. This could force the Fed to accelerate the discussion of removing support from the economy. In terms of economic data, the ISM Manufacturing Index as well as the IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI showed signs of strong demand. But Business Confidence in the IHS survey hit a seven-month low on concerns over supply chain disruptions. Overall, these are good signs for the economic expansion. On infrastructure, President Joe Biden plans to meet with Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) this afternoon. The hope is the two can find a solution to the ongoing negotiations. This comes as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said there needs to be progress in talks by June 7. European Markets closed higher. European Central Bank (“ECB”) Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said the ECB would take action to offset any interest rate increases not justified by economic activity. Markit Euro-Zone’s final manufacturing PMI data for May showed its highest reading since the series started. The Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index for May provided data that were in line with estimates. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China said it is raising the foreign reserve requirements of domestic banks from 5% to 7% to rein in recent yuan strength. China’s official composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for May showed activity remained in expansion territory for the 15th month in a row. Markit Japan’s final manufacturing PMI for May increased thanks to an optimistic business outlook. South Korea’s Exports for May were weaker than anticipated, but still greater than April’s data – marking its highest growth since December 1987. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.46% higher on positive forecasts from the oil cartel OPEC and the EIA while both Gold and Bitcoin closed flat.
To mark my 2325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 280 points yesterday, on the first trading session for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.05% lower at a price of 4202.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points higher for a 0.13% gain at a price of 34,575.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.23% lower at a price of 13,654.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.16% lower at a price of 28,814.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.2213.
The British Pound closed 0.5% lower at 1.4148.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $109.40.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.18%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.82%
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.60%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.46% higher at $67.72 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.17% lower at $1,897.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. At 3.00 pm we have the U.S ISM Manufacturing Employment Index. Finally, we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm and a speech from Fed Member Brainard at 5.00 pm.
June S&P 500
The S&P tested the key 4221 Third Standard Deviation price level as the market traded the whole of my sell range for a 4220 average short position. Subsequently, we fell 25 Handles, enabling me to cover this position at my 4204 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Short-Term, the S&P continues to find support from 4158/4173 and we must break and close below here before we can see a meaningful correction. I will be a buyer in this area with the same 4147 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has strong resistance from 4215/4229 where I will again be a seller with a 4241 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4186. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4204.
No Change as the Euro traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will leave my 1.2280/1.2330 sell level unchanged with the same 1.2365 stop. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.2120/1.2165 with the same 1.2075 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1.2250. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2195.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar has had little or no movement over the past 10 days and I am still flat. We have strong support from 89.00/89.40 where I will be a buyer with a tight 88.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 89.75.
Although the DAX closed higher, it continues to trade heavy in my opinion. It is only a matter of time before we break and close below the key 15200 support level. I am not going to chase the market higher leaving my 15120/15200 buy level unchanged with the same tight 15050 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15245.
Thankfully we had no sell level in the FTSE yesterday as the market rallied on the back of the weaker Pound and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 6940/6990 with a higher 6895 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7025.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market rallying to a high of 34847 before falling 300 points This move higher had me short at 34740 before covering this position at my revised 34620 T/P level as I wanted to get June off to a positive start after my April and May experience. The Dow has strong support from 34080/34280 where I will continue to be an aggressive buyer with a now higher 33925 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 34800/34950 where I will again be a seller with a 35095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34425. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34680.
I am still short the NASDAQ at a price of 13560. It is clear that I have held this position too long and today I will now raise my exit level to 13605. My stop remains at 13705 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with new update for my Platinum Members.
The Bund just missed my initial 169.60 buy level before rallying and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my buy level slightly to 168.90/169.40 with a lower 168.55 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 169.70.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to flirt with the January highs near 1900 and I am still flat. I am not going to chase the market higher and I will leave my 1847/1862 buy level unchanged with the same 1839 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1869.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now lower my buy level to 26.70/27.30 with a lower 26.35 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 27.65.
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