On 02/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets rose on strong jobs data ending the day higher, led by the S&P which ended yesterday’s session at a new all-time high with a gain of 0.52%. Jobless Claims fell again and beat expectations after two straight weeks of increases. Jobless Claims now sit at their lowest level since March 14, 2020. The four-week moving average sits at 392,750 versus 398,750 last week. This is a strong sign for the labour market. Elsewhere, ISM manufacturing data missed estimates, but remained at elevated levels. This is a reason for optimism within the broader U.S. economy. Federal Reserve speakers continue to take a more hawkish tone. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said he would like to see the central bank start tapering its asset purchases soon, as the extra liquidity has spurred economic demand. This was echoed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who said he is ready to slow the pace of asset purchases this year. European Markets closed higher. Markit Euro-Zone’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for June rose versus the preliminary reading, on strength in Germany and France. The European Central Bank was said to be preparing an announcement to lift the cap on bank dividends, allowing them to start returning capital to shareholders in October. Germany’s Finance Ministry said it would be extending the end date for startup-business aid until the end of this year in an attempt to foster economic growth. In Asia, China’s President Xi Jinping warned the country’s adversaries against impeding its progress, while renewing his call for reunification with Taiwan. Markit/Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI numbers for June were below expectations, with growth slowing versus May, as output and new orders fell. The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey indicated business confidence for large manufacturers hit its highest level since the end of 2018, implying the nation’s economy is turning the corner. South Korea’s government unveiled a $29.2 billion supplementary budget, its largest such effort, in attempt to create new jobs and spur economic growth. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.91% higher ahead of OPEC’s production meeting, while Bitcoin continues its recent sell-off falling 5% on little news.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 95 points on the first trading day for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.52% higher at a price of 4319.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 131 points higher for a 0.38% gain at a price of 34,633.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.04% higher at a price of 14,560.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.27% higher at a price of 28,783.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1842.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.3760.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5%, closing at $111.60.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.20%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.73%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower at 1.46%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.91% higher at $75.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.28% higher at $1,779.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Producer Prices at 10.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. The expectation is for 700,000 jobs being created versus last month’s 559K. Finally, we have ISM New York at 2.45 pm and Factory Orders at 3.00 pm.
September S&P 500
The S&P has now closed higher for the last five Quarters, while yesterday marked the eight- straight day of consecutive gains as the market closed at yet another new record high. The Disconnect from reality continues with the Market Cap to GDP now at an unprecedented 205% while the Price/Earnings Ratio at a never seen before level of 3.12.1. I am still flat the S&P as the market again just missed my 4280 buy level with a 4285 low print before trading to an overnight high of 4314. The S&P has trendline resistance at 4351 and my own view is that somewhere between here and 4351 will mark some- what of a top in the market. Inflation is increasing as shown by this week’s Housing Data and the fact that Oil is now trading above $75 a barrel. Ahead of the NFP data I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 4265/4280 with the same 4253 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has strong resistance from 4325/4345 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 4361 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Be careful with any long positions as this market can roll-over at any stage given how extended the U.S Indexes are at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4291. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4312.
Thankfully, the Euro rallied to my 1.1880 T/P level on Wednesday’s 1.1855 long position before selling off to sit at 1.1840 this morning. The Euro has support from 1.1760/1.1810 which must hold or else there is every possibility of a further move lower to 1.1650,1.1500 and 1.1440. I will be a small buyer in this area with a tight 1.1735 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1840.
September Dollar Index
I am still short at 92.35 with the same 92.20 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this trade at 92.85 while leaving my stop unchanged at 93.10.
For the second consecutive trading session, the DAX look like it was going to break support levels before reversing in the afternoon and I am still flat. Ahead of the weekend I will not chase any rally in the DAX and today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 15360/15420 with a lower 15295 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15465.
The weakness in Sterling helped the FTSE to rally yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 6945/6995 with a higher 6895 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7025.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow. The market has now rallied over 1600 points in the last 10 days, since the 33023 low last Monday week. Ahead of the Long-Weekend in America, I will now raise my buy level to 34300/34450 with a 34165 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has resistance from 34820/34970 and I will now raise my sell level to this area with a 35105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Which is just above the all-time high from May 10. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34560. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34710.
No Change. I am still an aggressive buyer from 14280/14200 with a higher 14125 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 14640/14720 with the same 14805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14350. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14590.
Ahead of the NFP data I will now raise my sell level to 173.05/173.45 with a tight 173.71 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.80.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. My only interest in buying Gold is still on a dip lower to 1722/1736 with the same 1709 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1745.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver just missed my buy level yesterday before having a small rally and I a still flat. Today, I will now lower my buy level slightly to 24.80/25.40 with a tight 24.45 stop If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.70.
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