On 02/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets bounced around to start the month, trading in a narrow range ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting, as the NASDAQ 100 again led the gains, closing higher by 0.35%. Markets opened higher and held onto their gains throughout the day. In terms of economic data, ISM Manufacturing data for October came in better than expected as demand remained strong. Investors have their eyes on the upcoming days, though… 167 S&P 500 Index members report quarterly results this week, making it the largest earnings week of the quarter. Following tomorrow’s Fed Meeting we have the press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. And rounding out the week is Monthly Payroll data, which could be looked to for clues on any future Fed policy decisions. European Markets closed higher. Iraq’s Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar said monthly oil output increases of 400,000 barrels per day should be more than enough to satisfy demand and stabilise prices. German Retail Sales unexpectedly fell in September. However, they remained 3.5% above pre-COVID levels. German Finance Minister candidate Christian Lindner said the European Central Bank needs to do more to contain inflation before it becomes a problem. In Asia, Japan’s preliminary election results indicated Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party maintained its majority, implying increased stimulus spending. China’s official composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for October fell versus September, but remained in expansion territory, as manufacturing activity disappointed. Japan’s final manufacturing PMI figures for October rose versus the initial reading, as easing COVID restrictions led to improvements in orders and output. South Korea’s exports for October were weaker than anticipated but rose versus September, as manufacturers said a lack of raw materials and shipping delays hindered output. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.43% after OPEC suggested that it would not raise oil output more than planned and that its current output strategy was enough to satisfy demand, while Gold closed 0.52% higher on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 150 points yesterday, on the first trading session for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.18% higher at a price of 4613.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 94 points higher for a 0.26% gain at a price of 35,913.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.35% higher at a price of 15,905.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 07%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.61% higher at a price of 29,647.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.1601.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.3662.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $113.99.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.10%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 1.04%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.57%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.43% higher at $83.95 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.53% higher at $1,792.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German and Euro-Zone Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am and 9.00 am respectively. The only U.S. data of note is earnings from Verisk this afternoon.
December S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 4619 initial sell level before falling 20 Handles, enabling me to cover this position at my 4608 T/P level and I am now flat. If the Fed announce that they will start to taper at tomorrow’s Meeting, then how can this vertical extension across Global Indexes, Oil and Bitcoin continue without this previous incremental liquidity? Yes, both the Fed and ECB continue to print like crazy and we may finally get confirmation that the liquidity party is coming to an end. It will not end in 2021 and we should be all aware of this as the final bubble phase tends to be the most extreme as we saw with the NASDAQ in 2000. The 2000 bubble ended after then Fed Chairman Greenspan pulled liquidity after flooding the system ahead of Y2K and the market crashed, led by the NDX falling 78% from 5000 to less than 1000 in a matter of months. The S&P is now trading right at the upper Weekly Bollinger Band while over the weekend Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson came out with a note saying bull market will not last beyond Thanksgiving in three weeks. By the way Wilson has an excellent track record. Today, I will again look to sell the S&P from 4615/4630 with a 4641 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be a small buyer from 4565/4580 with the same 4553 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4605. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4590.
The Euro rallied 0.3% yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1490/1.1540 with a 1.1455 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1570.
December Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller from 94.40/94.90 with the same 95.31 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 94.15.
Fundamentals do not matter anymore especially in relation to the DAX. One economic miss after another does not stop the DAX from trading close to all-time highs. Yesterday, it was German Retail Sales which collapsed with a fall of over 2%, yet the DAX rallied to sit above 15800 as I go to press. This is insane. The DAX has resistance from 15910/15990 where I will be a small seller with a wider 16105 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15850.
I am still flat the FTSE s the market again traded in a narrow range. We have resistance from 7310/7360 and I will now raise my sell level to this area with a 7405 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7280.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow made a new high above 36000 before having a small sell-off and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 35610/35760 with a tight 35495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my sell level to 36130/36280 while leaving my 36425 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35880. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 36015.
The NASDAQ just missed my 15930 sell level with a 15912 high before falling 140 points. Subsequently we regained these lost points into the close and I am still flat. The 14-Day RSI closed above 70 yesterday confirming how overbought this market is after rising 1800 points in less than three weeks. Today, I will be a seller from 15960/16060 with a 16145 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15880.
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 167.80 buy level before rallying to my 168.20 T/P level and I am now flat. I will continue to buy the dip in the Bund, believing the ECB will do everything in their power to prevent rise in Yields. Today, my buy level will be from 167.50/168.00 with a 166.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 16830
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1758/1773 with a tight 1747 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1780.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at 24.00 with the same 23.49 stop and 24.30 T/P level.
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