On 02/12/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
Following one of the largest intra-day reversals in many months, U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s trading session on the lows of the day as both the Dow and S&P closed below their respective 50-Day Moving Averages. In the early afternoon, strong economic data boosted markets. According to the November Employment Survey from payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the private sector added 534,000 jobs. November’s jobs report marked the 12th straight month of employment gains for the U.S. economy, according to ADP’s data. And it was the 17th consecutive month of job gains out of the last 18. The trend of job gains is still improving. This will be something to look forward to in the Nonfarm Payrolls Report tomorrow. Markets began to sell off in the afternoon on reports that the U.S. had confirmed its first case of the Omicron variant. This led to uncertainty over the economic outlook and a possible return of COVID-19 restrictions. But BioNTech’s CEO reiterated that the current vaccines would likely prevent serious disease from the Omicron variant. Still, the threat of the virus forced investors to sell. Within the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed higher. Markit Euro-Zone’s final manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) figures for November eased versus the initial reading, yet marked the 17th consecutive month of expansion. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (“OECD”) lowered its 2021 global growth estimate from 5.7% to 5.6% in its quarterly economic outlook. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said everyone in the U.K. will be able to receive a COVID-19 booster shot by the end of January. In Asia, Markit Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI data for November unexpectedly fell into contraction territory despite output hitting the highest level since July. Markit Japan’s final manufacturing PMI numbers for November rose versus the initial reading as output and new orders hit the highest level since April. South Korea’s export numbers for November exceeded expectations, rising versus October, as semiconductor and automobile shipments abroad increased. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said parliament would investigate the algorithms used by social media platforms, possibly warranting new regulation. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.28% as the first Omicron variant in the U.S. hurt the global growth outlook, while Gold closed higher by 0.22%.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 385 points yesterday, on the first trading session for December, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.18% lower at a price of 4513.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 461 points lower for a 1.34% loss at a price of 34,022.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.60% lower at a price of 15,877.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.8% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.41% higher at a price of 27,935.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1314.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.3261.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.7%, closing at $112.82.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.35%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.81%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points lower at 1.42%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.28% lower at $65.65 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.22% higher at $1,779.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Unemployment and PPI at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB Member Panetta at 2.00 pm
December S&P 500
Yesterday was a wild trading session for the S&P, hitting an afternoon high at 4650 before falling a huge 150 Handles into the close. My S&P plan did not work well as I bought the S&P at an average rate of 4549 before getting stopped out of this position at 4525 and I am now flat. The decline accelerated in the last 15 minutes after the 50 Day Moving Average was broken. Two weeks ago we saw the Fear & Greed Index print Extreme Greed, while last night we closed at 19 which is Extreme Fear, incredible change in sentiment in just 14 days. With the McClellan Oscillator closing last night at -295, I cannot be a seller of the S&P. The S&P has strong support from 4460/4480 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 4439 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4508.
No Change. The Euro just missed my 1.1370 sell level with a 1.1360 high print before falling 50 points and I am still flat. Today, I will leave my 1.1370/1.1420 sell level unchanged with the same 1.1461 stop. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1190/1.1240 with a 1.1145 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1.1330. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1275.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar fell shy of my 96.20 sell level before having a small sell-off into the New York close. I will continue to be a seller from 96.20/96.70 with the same 97.11 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 95.90.
The DAX closed over 2% higher before selling off in the after hours into the New York close. I am still flat as I continue to be a small buyer from 14820/14970 with the same 14795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15040.
I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level slightly to 6930/6990 with a lower 6865 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7035.
Dow Rolling Contract
Just like the S&P above, the Dow fell over 1000 points off its 35000 afternoon high print. There are a lot of trapped long positions above the market with a number of these positions stopped as the market accelerated 300 points lower in the last 15 minutes of trading into the close. I bought the Dow at an average rate of 34370 before getting stopped at 34095 and I am still flat. The 14-Day RSI closed at an oversold reading of 27 last night. It was three weeks ago that the RSI was overbought with a reading of 71. Yesterday’s higher Gap opening in the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, was attended by a NYSE Advance/Decline Ratio of nearly 10-to-1 and a NYSE Tick of +1761, the highest positive Tick in nine months. The strong start did not end that way as all three Indexes made new lows for the session as the buy the dip crowd got slammed. With the McClellan Oscillator closing at -295 last night it is no wonder that the Dow is trading 250 points higher from last night’s close as I go to press. The Dow has strong support from 33750/33950 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with a wider 33595 ‘’Closing Stop’’ I certainly do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34130.
My NASDAQ plan worked well as the market rallied to my 16340 sell level before selling off to my 16270 T/P level. Subsequently, the market sold off to my 15970 buy level before thankfully rallying back to my 16050 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has strong support at its 50 -Day MA which comes in at a price of 15600 this morning. This level should act as strong support on any initial test. I will be an aggressive buyer from 15650/15500 with a 15395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NDX has resistance from 16150/16250 where I will be a small seller with a 16375 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15780. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16080.
No Change. I am still a seller from 172.95/173.45 with the same 173.91 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold outperformed Silver yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer from 1738/1753 with the same 1725 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1762.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my second buy level at 22.45 for a now 22.75 average long position. I will now lower my stop on this position to 21.75 while also lowering my T/P level to 22.95
Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.To view the current daily levels commentary (which non-members can only view in older reports) you would need to purchase a Trader Noble Commentary Subscription from US$50/month.