On 03/12/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session higher as expected as yet again the McClellan Oscillator proved what a fantastic technical signal it is. The Dow led the rally closing with a gain of 1.83%. Weekly Jobless Claims were the big data point in the afternoon. Claims rose from the prior week’s 52-year low, but still came in below estimates. This continues to show that the job market has rebounded strongly. I will look for more evidence of this trend in this afternoon’s Non-Farm Payroll release. Investors shook off concerns about the Omicron variant, after a second case was confirmed here in the U.S. On Wednesday, news of the first Omicron case sent markets tumbling. And a Pfizer executive said the company does not expect a significant drop-off in vaccine efficacy with the new variant. The Federal Reserve continued its hawkish turn, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly saying that she could see the taper ending in March, with two rates hikes possible in 2022. Within the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. Euro-Zone Producer Price Index data for October was higher than anticipated, driven by rising energy costs. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said COVID-19’s negative impact on the economy has lessened, though it still will be a significant headwind to growth. The German government released new measures for unvaccinated citizens, saying that the unvaccinated can only enter essential businesses. Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the circumstances call for serious decisions as Germany tries to control infection rates. In Asia, China’s government summoned the Japanese envoy to express dismay over former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s warning against attacking Taiwan. Japan’s government reversed a decision to halt all incoming flights, saying it wanted to consider the needs of returning Japanese nationals. The People’s Bank of China removed roughly $14 billion worth of liquidity from the financial system, implying economic activity is stabilising. South Korea’s Consumer Price Index figures for November were stronger than expected, rising from October, and increasing the likelihood of a First-Quarter intertest rate hike. Elsewhere, Oil rebounded 2.12% with risk assets despite OPEC choosing to leave its production increase intact, while Gold fell 0.83% on Dollar strength.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 35 points yesterday, and is now down by 350 points for December, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.42% higher at a price of 4577.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 617 points higher for a 1.83% gain at a price of 34,639.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.71% higher at a price of 15,990.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.65% lower at a price of 27,753.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1298.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.3297.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $113.18.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.37%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.82%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.44%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.12% higher at $67.80 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.83% lower at $1,764.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Services PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 930 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls including the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have Markit Services PMI at 2.45 pm, ahead of ISM Services and Factory Orders at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
Having got stopped out of my long S&P late Wednesday, I was hoping that some more margin selling would see the S&P hit my 4460/4480 aggressive buy level but unfortunately, we only made a low of 4506, shortly before lunch before the S&P traded to an intra-day high of 4593 and I am still flat as I had no sell level in the S&P. When you have a McClellan Oscillator reading near-300 you do not under any circumstances want to be a seller. At the same time the biggest rallies come after large sell-offs as we have witnessed over three different trading sessions this week. This move higher saw the S&P regain its 50 Day Moving Average (4542) and this level should see a rally on any test. I will be a small buyer from 4528/4543 with a 4513 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has small resistance from 4595/4610 where I will be a seller with a tight 4623 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4556. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4579.
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1190/1.1240 with the same 1.1145 stop. Meanwhile, ahead of NFP, I will leave my 1.1370/1.1420 sell level unchanged at 1.1461. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1275. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1.1330.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market fell shy of my 96.20 sell level. I will now raise my sell level to 96.50/97.00 with a higher 97.41 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 96.20.
I am still flat as the DAX never came close to yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 14980/15080 with a 14895 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15135.
I am still flat the FTSE as the market rallied yesterday. Just like the DAX above, I will now raise my buy level to 6990/7040 with a tight 6945 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7080.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow did not spend much time below its 200 Day Moving Average, closing higher by 600 points as yet again anyone shorting the Dow has to be quick to take your gain. I hate using fixed stops in the market as I had the correct view in buying the dip on Wednesday in both the S&P and Dow only to be stopped on the lows. Another lesson learned. So much technical damage has been done in the Dow since the early November top. The Dow has resistance from 34945/35110 where I will be a seller with a 35295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be long the Dow at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34785.
The NDX just missed my initial 15650 buy level before rallying back above 16000 and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 15700/15800 with a higher 15595 ‘’Closing Price’’ stop. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a seller from 16150/16250 with the same 16375 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15880. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16075.
My Bund plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 172.95 sell level before trading lower to my 172.60 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 173.05/173.45 with a higher 173.81 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.70.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1737/1752 with the same 1725 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1760.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long at 22.75 with the same 22.95 T/P level and 21.75 stop.
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