On 04/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.

U.S. Equity Markets soared on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with all three main Indexes closing yet again at new all-time highs. Markets were on hold throughout most of the day as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. In the morning, ADP employment change data came in above estimates, extending a string of positive jobs reports. This supported the case for the Federal Reserve to withdraw support. In the afternoon, the Fed announced it would be reducing asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasurys’ and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities. It will further reduce the purchases again in December, the Fed said. This is the tapering announcement that everyone had come to expect at this meeting. And the central bank said that it expects many of the inflationary pressures to be transitory. In his post-policy meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the tapering does not give any timeline for the start of interest rate hikes. European Markets closed mixed. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the regional economy likely wouldn’t meet the conditions for a rate hike until at least 2023. Eurostat’s Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate for September was in line with expectations, falling versus August, as businesses increased hiring. Germany’s government is said to be pushing forward with plans to offer a COVID vaccine booster to anyone interested, supporting the economic outlook. In Asia, China’s Premier Li Keqiang said the country’s economy is facing new downward pressure and will have to cut taxes and fees to support growth. Following a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan’s new government confirmed its ongoing support for the economy until inflation hits the 2% target. Chinese state-run media outlet The Paper said power plant coal supply was up to 19.1 days at the end of October versus 5.1 days at the end of September, easing power supply concerns. Vietnam’s government said 200 manufacturers that produce goods for Nike are back to full operation after the country recently eased COVID restrictions. Elsewhere, Oil fell 3.63% after a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories, while Gold closed 0.86% lower as the Federal Reserve begin to withdraw support from the economy

To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 140 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 21 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.65% higher at a price of 4660.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 104 points higher for a 0.24% gain at a price of 36,157.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.08% higher at a price of 16,144.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.43% lower at a price of 29,520.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.

The Euro closed 0.25% higher at $1.1610.

The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.3685.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $114.01.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.15%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 1.07%

US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points higher at 1.60%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.63% lower at $0.86 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.86% lower at $1,767.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have German Factory Orders and Markit Service PMI at 7.00 am and 8.55 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone and U.K. Markit Services PMI at 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. At 12.00 pm we have the Bank of England Rate Announcement, followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Unit Labour Costs and Non-Farm Productivity at 12.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 1.00 pm.

December S&P 500

This fantasy melt-up phase of the S&P shows very little sign of ending much to my frustration. Last night, the 14 -Day RSI closed at its most overbought reading for the year (73.47) after Fed Chairman Powell said there was no need to hike Interest Rates anytime soon. This comment did not suit my latest 4628 short position as I was stopped out on the close at 4651 and I am now flat. The Fear & Greed Index closed at 82 which is Extreme Greed. In my opinion we are setting up for one of the largest crashes in history as this reckless policy of QE continues in an inflationary environment. The S&P has further resistance from 4667/4685 where I will again be a seller with a 4701 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the S&P at this time. If I am taken short I will have T/P level at 4654.

EUR/USD

The Euro traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1510/1.1560 with a 1.1475 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1590.

December Dollar Index

I will now lower my sell level to 94.25/94.75 with a 95.11 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 94.00.

December DAX

The DAX fell shy of my 15880 T/P level before trading on the close to my second sell level at 16020 for a now 15975 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this trade to 15930 while leaving my 16105 stop unchanged for now.

December FTSE

No Change. I am still a seller from 7310/7360 with the same 7405 stop. I expect the Bank of England to be more aggressive than both the Fed and ECB when we have their rate announcement at 12.00 pm. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7270.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow Transports are trading at new all-time highs after Avis Budget Group surged 218% intra-day on Tuesday. This was move was enough to see the Transports surge 14.5% to new highs which is the most ever. I did not anticipate the Dow Transports making a new all-time high as this moves now erases the Dow Theory Non-Confirmation that had existed relative to the Industrials. I am still flat the Dow as I continue to be a small seller from 36230/36380 with the same 36525 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 36090. The Dow has support from 35720/35870 where I will be a buyer with a 35595 ‘’Closing Stop. If

 I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35995.

December NASDAQ

My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market hitting my 16040 initial sell level before trading lower to my 15990 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Incredibly, the NDX rallied over 150 points from this low into the close, resulting in the 14 -Day RSI closing at 76. Today, I will be a seller from 16195/16290 with a 16405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16130.

December BUND

I am still flat. The Bund has resistance from 169.50/170.10 where I will be a small seller with a 170.45 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 169.20.

Gold Rolling Contract

My Gold plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1760 buy level before rallying, $13, enabling me to cover this position at 1764 and I am now flat. Gold has support from 1739/1754 where I will again be a buyer with a 1727 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1762.

Silver Rolling Contract

Silver just missed my 22.90 buy level before rallying 60 points into the New York close and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 22.60/23.20 with a 22.05 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.55.

Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.

Hi Everyone

Apologies for the late update but I have been travelling for most of the day
With the NDX 14-Day RSI above 78, I am asking  the question are we dealing with peak mania here as practically every  chart  is vertical
So far today, Oil is selling  off and has closed $2 low after yesterday’s 4% fall while the Dollar has strengthened on the back of yesterday’s kick the can down the road from the Fed
A number of my calls have hit
The S&P hit my 4670 sell level before trading to a low of 4656, enabling me to cover this position at 4662 and I am now flat
The NDX traded the whole of my sell range for a now 16260 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this trade to 16190.
The rally in the Dollar saw my 94.35 sell level executed. I am still short with a now higher 94.10 T/P level/
.
I bought the Euro at 1.1545 with a now lower 1.1580 T/P level
Finally, the Bund  traded the whole of my sell range as the ECB again bought European Bonds to keep interest rates low
I am now short the Bund at an average rate of 169.80 with a now higher 169.60 T/P level
Kind Regards
Bryan
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