On 05/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets rose as Jobless Claims fell to a 19-month low, led by the 1.25% surge in the NASDAQ 100, as yet again the NDX and S&P closed at new all-time highs. Employment data was the big driver of the day. Weekly Jobless Claims fell again, beating estimates. More importantly, they hit their lowest level in 19 months. This is a strong sign for the labour market’s recovery. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement continued to make headlines, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank would begin tapering asset purchases by $15 billion per month, avoiding the worst-case outcome. Now, all eyes are on this afternoon’s employment data, when the Census Bureau releases October’s Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. In the S&P 500, six of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Indices closed higher. Markit Euro-Zone final composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for October fell versus the preliminary reading, as new orders slipped versus September. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said he plans to lower taxes, expressing that this is the fairest way to ensure the consumer bounces back from the pandemic. German, French, British, Russian, and Chinese officials will meet with their Iranian counterparts in late November in an attempt to revive nuclear-accord talks. The Bank of England left Interest Rates unchanged, saying that it still sees benefits of waiting to see the labour market rebound before tightening policy, with Sterling selling off aggressively as a result. In Asia, China’s National Development and Reform Commission said daily coal output was close to record volumes for the year, boosting power supply optimism. Markit Japan’s final services PMI figures for October rose into expansion territory for the first time since the onset of COVID-19. South Korean Vice Finance Minister Lee Eog-weon said the government will intervene in the bond market if volatility increases. Australia’s export data for September was weaker than anticipated, as iron ore and coal shipments declined on weaker demand from China. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.30% lower despite trading higher for much of the day as OPEC said it would stick to its 400,000 barrel per day output increase, but sold off into the close, while Gold rose 1.75% despite the stronger U.S. Dollar.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 80 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 101 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 4680.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 33 points lower for a 0.09% loss at a price of 36,124.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.25% higher at a price of 16,346.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.93% higher at a price of 29,794.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.50% lower at $1.1552.
The British Pound closed 1.2% lower at 1.3497.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $113.75.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at -0.22%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 13 basis points lower at 0.94%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points lower at 1.52%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.30% lower at $82.65 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.75% higher at $1,792.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Industrial Production at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. At 12.30 pm we have the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. Finally, we have Consumer Credit at 7.00 pm.
December S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 4670 sell level before falling to an afternoon low of 4658, enabling me to cover this position at 4662 and I am now flat. We are now witnessing peak mania in everything as the RSI made another new high for the year closing at 75 while the NDX closed at 78. Any reading above 70 is considered overbought and any sell-off we have seen so far this year has occurred with an RSI above 70. The Fed took the decision on Wednesday to keep printing despite mis reading the whole inflation impact all year. They are so afraid of upsetting markets as they know that hiking rates which they need to do based on history as they fear causing a crash. Now they risk causing an epic crash with their foolish actions. The S&P has further resistance from 4685/4700 where I will again be a seller with a 4718 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4674.
The Euro got hit hard yesterday and I am now long at 1.1545 with a lower 1.1580 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 1.1495 while lowering my stop to 1.1459.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied yesterday, hitting my 94.35 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 94.10 T/P level. I will now lower my stop to 94.81.
No Change. I am still short at 15975 with the same 15930 T/P level and 16105 wider stop.
Despite the Bank of England following both the Fed and NAB this week by leaving rates unchanged, the FTSE struggled to rally. This was surprising given the 1.2% fall in Sterling. I am still flat the FTSE and I will continue to be a seller from 7310/7360 with the same 7405 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7280.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as the market traded in a narrow range. Ahead of the NFP data at 12.30 pm, I will now raise my sell level to 36280/36430 with a higher 36605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 35760/35920 with a a higher 35615 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 36150. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 36040.
The NASDAQ has now risen an incredible 2200 points in the past few weeks while yesterday’s aggressive 1.25% was the ninth consecutive day the market has closed higher. The previous record was 10 consecutive sessions, ending in December 8, 2020. This move higher has me short at an average rate of 16260. I will now raise my T/P level to 16220 while leaving my 16405 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
The BUND rallied 100 points yesterday. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered and I am now short at 169.80. I will leave my stop unchanged at 170.45 while raising my T/P level to 169.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to trade between 1750 and 1805 and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1754/1769 with a 1743 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1777.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver again fell shy of my 23.20 buy level and I am still flat. Ahead of the NFP data I will leave my 22.60/23.20 buy level unchanged with the same 22.05 stop. If taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.55.
Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.