U.S. Equity Markets rebounded on strong economic data, before ending yesterday’s session mixed after the Dow made a new all-time high while the NASDAQ closed lower. Strong jobs data served as a tailwind for markets. ADP Employment Change data showed that 742,000 jobs were added in April. While this was below Wall Street’s estimate, it marked the fourth straight month of job gains. And it was the 11th month of gains in the past 12 months. Elsewhere, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen walked back comments about rising interest rates and fiscal spending, saying she was not recommending tightening Federal Reserve policy. Remember, these comments sparked a sharp sell-off in U.S. stocks on Tuesday – especially growth names. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that, while the economy has recovered, it remains far from the Fed’s goals. This indicates no changes to central bank policy anytime soon. European Markets closed higher. Group of Seven Foreign Ministers discussed a U.S. proposal to use greater cooperation in countering what it believes to be economic coercion by China. Markit Euro-Zone’s final composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for April rose from the initial reading, hitting the highest level since last July. This was a strong sign for economic activity in the Euro-Zone. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said that he wants to extend economic support beyond the summer, even if the pandemic dies down by then. In Asia, Markit Australia’s final composite PMI data for April rose versus the preliminary data, marking the eighth straight month of expansion, and hitting its highest level ever. New Zealand’s first-quarter employment data were stronger than expected, indicating economic activity there is accelerating. Hong Kong’s Retail Sales data for March were weaker than expected, implying recent economic strength may have slowed toward the end of the first quarter. Elsewhere, Gold rose 0.56% as Fed speakers indicates that policy will remain loose for some time, while Bitcoin closed 5.5% higher as Coin Shares data showed the largest inflow into crypto products since February.
To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 55 points yesterday and is now ahead by 139 points for May having closed April with a gain of 1244 points, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.07% higher at a price of 4167.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 97 points higher for a 0.29% gain at a price of 34,230.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.3% lower at a price of 13,503.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.83% lower at a price of 28,812.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.2007.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.3907.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $109.19.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.23%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.82%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.57%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.09% lower at $65.63 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.56% higher at $1,782.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Factory Orders at 7.00 am, followed by the Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 900 am and Retail Sales at 10.00 am. At 12.00 pm we have the Bank of England Rate Decision and at 1.30 pm we have the U.S Weekly Jobless Claims, Unit Labour Costs and Non-Farm Productivity. Meanwhile, the ECB’s Lagarde and Fed Member Williams are speaking this afternoon at 12.25 pm and 2.00 pm respectively.
June S&P 500
You cannot really make this stuff up as no sooner a top official (Yellen) states the obvious that Interest Rates may well rise to curb the escalating inflation, leading to a 3% fall in the NASDAQ only to deny these comments a few hours later. As I said to my Platinum Members yesterday, the Fed are trapped having created the biggest bubble in history with the highest valuations ever, yet still committing $120 bn in QE each month. One of these imminent sell-offs is not coming back and that is the time to get a macro short position on board. Yesterday, the S&P just missed both my sell and buy levels and I am still flat I will now lower my buy level to 4122/4137 with a lower 4108 ‘’Closing Stop’’. However, I will not chase the S&P lower and I will leave my 4188/4203 sell level unchanged with the same 4215 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4148. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4178.
I am still long from Tuesday at 1.2020 with the same 1.2040 T/P level. I will continue to add to this trade at 1.1970 while leaving my 1.1935 stop unchanged.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level slightly to 90.40/90.80 with a lower 89.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 91.10.
Just when it looked like the DAX would break lower having finally closed below the 14900 key support level on Tuesday, up stepped the buyers (ECB?) again first thing yesterday morning. It is frustrating when you loose money on both sides of the balance sheet as I have done over the past two days. Yesterday, I sold the market at 15090 before getting stopped at 15155 and I am now flat. I am going to stay flat until I feel my edge has returned to this market.
No Change. I am still a buyer from 6800/6850 with the same 6765 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6885.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow made a new all-time high at 34,331, unconfirmed by both the S&P and NASDAQ, having rallied nearly 600 points off Tuesday afternoon’s low print. However, the Dow needs to break and close below 33750 for me to turn bearish. Today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 33870/34020 with a 33735 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34160.
I was lucky yesterday as the NASDAQ rallied to a rebound high of 13662, enabling me to cover my ill-timed 13640 average long position from Tuesday at 13650 as outlined in yesterday’s commentary and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has support at its 50 -Day Moving Average which comes in at 13340 and I will be a buyer against this support. Today. My buy level will be from 13280/13380 with a 13195 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13445.
No Change. I am still a buyer from 169.55/170.05 with the same 169.18 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 170.35.
Gold Rolling Contract
I still do not trust this rally in Gold. My only interest in buying the market is still on a dip lower to 1737/1752 with the same 1729 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1760.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 25.20/25.80 with the same 24.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.10.
Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.