On 08/10/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets continued their rally on a debt ceiling deal, ending yesterday’s session higher, led by the Dow with a gain of 0.98%. Congress announced that it had reached a deal to suspend the debt ceiling until December, which would provide the government with $480 billion in borrowing capacity. This removes any uncertainty around a potential default. The House voted on this Bill overnight and it will now go to the Senate on Tuesday. In terms of economic data, Jobless Claims fell sharply and came in below estimates. And Continuing Claims – which represent jobless claims for more than two weeks – also came in below estimates. This is a good sign for the labour market’s recovery. In the S&P 500, all 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets rose. German Health Minister Jens Spahn said the country anticipates few COVID-related restrictions in the fall and winter due to increased vaccine uptake. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) was said to consider a new asset purchase program for when the current Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program ends. That implies a new tool for economic support and low interest rates. Supporting this outlook were comments from ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras. He said investors’ rate-hike concerns do not reflect central bank guidance, implying continued easy money policies. On a down note, German Industrial Production data for August was weaker than anticipated, falling versus July, as manufacturing and construction activity fell. In Asia, China’s Foreign Policy Chief Yang Jiechi called his meeting with US. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan more meaningful than previous meetings with officials from the administration of President Joe Biden In addition, the White House said Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping would conduct a virtual meeting later this year to discuss areas of mutual interest going forward. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said economic growth is improving, and inflation will increase gradually, but the central bank won’t hesitate to use more stimulus if necessary. That assured investors the new government in Japan will not pull the rug out from under the carpet. On the downside, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng warned China posed its most serious risk in more than 40 years, saying it could launch a full-blown attack on the island by 2025. That could stoke regional political tensions. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.83% after the Department of Energy said it had no plans to sell crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. While Bitcoin fell 2% on profit-taking after its recent run higher.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 173 points yesterday and is now ahead by 629 points for October after making 2866 points in September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.83% higher at a price of 4399.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points higher for a 0.98% gain at a price of 34,754.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.88% higher at a price of 14,897.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.2% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.50% higher at a price of 28,093.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1567.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.3610.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $111.82.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.19%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 1.07%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed six basis points higher at 1.59%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 183% higher at $78.58 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.32% lower at $1,754.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German August Trade Balance which came in at Euro 13.0 billion versus 17 billion the previous month. Next, we have the Minutes from the last UK MPC Meeting at 9.30 am and a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 1.10 pm. This is followed by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for September and the Unemployment Rate, where the consensus is for an increase of 488K, compared to last month’s 235K. Finally, we have Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market rallying to my 4398 initial sell level before trading lower to my 4387 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P tested its 50 Day Moving Average before selling off into the close. With NFP at 1.30 pm we can expect plenty of two-way volatility upon release. The S&P has strong resistance from 4435/4450 where I will again be a seller with a 4465 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The 4450 is an important pivot point, as building value above this level will see a test of new highs at 4550. We have short-term support from 4345/4360 where I will be a strong buyer with a 4329 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4423. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4374.
I am still long at 1.1590 with the same 1.1615 T/P level. With the Daily Sentiment Index at just 9% bulls I am happy to hold on to this position for now. My stop will remain the same at 1.1525.
December Dollar Index
My latest 94.38 short position worked well as the Dollar dropped to my 94.10 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the Dollar is trading higher at 94.27. We have resistance from 94.45/94.85 where I will again be a seller with a 95.10 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 94.20.
The DAX never came close to yesterday’s buy level as the market continues to build support above the key 14900 pivot point. I will now raise my buy level to 15010/15090 with a higher 14955 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15135.
No Change. I am still a small buyer on any further dip lower to 6930/6980 with the same 6875. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7010.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow rallied above 34950, – 1100 points higher than where we traded on Wednesday morning as yet again short positions get slammed. This move higher saw my second sell level at 34755 filled, for a now 34680 average short position. I am not comfortable in being short ahead of the NFP release at 1.30 pm. I will now raise my T/P level to 34660 while leaving my 34825 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. The Dow has support below the market from 34200/34400 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 34050 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34560.
No Change. I am still short at a price of 14775 with the same 14905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my exit level on this position to a small loss at 14810. If any of the above levels are executed I will come back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The Bund is selling off as I post this Commentary. I am still flat as I continue to look to buy the Bund from 168.30/168.80 with the same 16795 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 169.15.
Gold Rolling Contract
The sideways action continues and I am still flat. I will not chase Gold higher leaving my 1717/1734 buy level unchanged with the same 1703 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1742.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 22.40 buy level before rallying to my 22.75 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver has strong support from 21.60/22.20 where I will again be a buyer with a 20.95 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 22.55.
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