On 08/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets rose as the economy added more jobs than expected, finishing the day higher, led by Dow closing at a new all-time high with a gain of 0.58%. Strong jobs data pushed markets higher. The Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Nonfarm Payroll data for October showed 531,000 new hires, above the expectation for 450,000 and the prior month’s upwardly revised 312,000. The numbers signal the pace of economic growth is rising. There was also positive news on COVID-19 treatments. Pfizer (PFE) said that its COVID-19 treatment pill was highly effective at preventing death and hospitalisation in the highest-risk patients. In fact, the pharmaceutical company said that it cut hospitalisations by as much as 90% if taken within three days of diagnosis. Congress continues to try and push through the budget and infrastructure bills, and this Bill was passed late Friday and will now go to President Biden for signing. In the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. The Bank of England surprised investors by not raising interest rates last Thursday, saying instead it remains focused on the country’s fragile labour market recovery. European Central Bank Governing Council member Luis de Guindos said he is certain inflation will come back down to normal levels, even if it takes longer than estimated. The British government became the first country to approve Merck’s (MRK) COVID-19 pill, allowing for more home treatment and potentially easing hospital strain. In Asia, China’s President Xi Jinping said the country is open to holding discussions on state support for businesses, implying it is ready to engage with the U.S. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is committed to providing monetary stimulus to support the economy. Chinese real estate developer Kaisas shares were suspended from trading after the company said it missed payments on guaranteed wealth products. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen received an official delegation from the European Union, potentially stoking political tensions with China. Elsewhere, Oil closed 3.46% higher as OPEC said it would stick to its 400,000 barrel per day output increase, while Gold jumped above $1800 with a gain of 1.44%.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 210 points last Friday, and is now ahead by 311 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.37% higher at a price of 4697.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 203 points higher for a 0.37% gain at a price of 36,327.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.08% higher at a price of 16,359.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.61% lower at a price of 29,611.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1565.
The British Pound closed unchanged at 1.3497.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3%, closing at $113.38.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points lower at -0.28%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 10 basis points lower at 0.84%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed six basis points lower at 1.46%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.46% higher at $81.22 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.44% higher at $1,815.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 930 am. We have no data of note from the U.S. this afternoon. However, Fed Chairman Powell is speaking at 3.30 pm.
December S&P 500
The S&P Futures Contract surged to another new all-time high at 4711, enabling me to be short at an average rate of 4694. Subsequently, the S&P fell to my 4674 T/P level and I am now flat. This is the most overbought U.S. Market that I have witnessed in my 35 years of trading. Since the S&P bottomed four weeks ago at 4274, the market has only had two small down days out of the last 18 trading sessions as the ‘’buy everything’’ rally shows no sign of ending even though the 14 -Day RSI closed above 76 on Friday. The Daily Sentiment Index closed at 93% bulls, the highest level since January 22, 2018. From January 2018 to December 2018, the S&P fell 18% after a series of up and down moves. Given the extreme level of bullishness I have no interest in buying this market as vertical rallies always end in tears and loss of capital. Today, I will be a seller from 4690/4705 with a 4727 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4278.
No Change I am still long at 1.1545 with the same 1.1580 T/P level. I will add to this trade on any further dip to 1.1495 while leaving my 1.1459 stop unchanged.
December Dollar Index
I am still short from last Thursday at 94.35 with the same 94.81 stop. Meanwhile I will leave my 94.10 T/P level unchanged and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
No Change. I am still short at 15975 with the same 15930 T/P level and wider 16105 stop. It was noticeable that the DAX was unable to follow the U.S. Indexes higher on Friday.
My FTSE plan worked well with the market finally hitting my 7310 sell level before trading lower to my 7280 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 7320/7370 with the same 7405 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7290.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow surged to a new all-time high at 36,484 before falling 300 points, and then rallying 150 points into the close. I went short at an average rate of 36360. Unfortunately, the market just missed my 36150 T/P level before I cut this position near the close at 36315 and I am still flat. Friday’s move higher saw the RSI hit 70. We have resistance from 36400/36580 where I will again be a seller with a 36715 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the Dow at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 36280.
The NASDAQ closed higher for the 10 consecutive trading session, but thankfully below my 16405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Therefore, I am still short from Thursday at 16260 with the same stop and T/P level at 16220. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members The DSI for the NDX is closed at 93% bulls – the same level as the S&P.
One week ago, the yield on the Bund was -8 basis points, a huge concern for the ECB’s negative policy. Intervention on a large scale saw the Bund soar on Friday, closing at -28 basis points as one ECB Member after another came out saying inflation was only transitory. I do not know what planet Lagarde or the ECB are living on but of course they will not be held accountable when it turns out how far off the mark they are. One report I read last week showed 13 of the 23 ECB Members trade their own account which goes against all ethics are far as I am concerned. I was stopped out of my latest 169.80 short Bund position at 170.45. I am going to stay flat today as I wait for the market to make its next turn.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has rallied over 3.5% since Thursday, closing above $1810, and testing a two-year trendline in the process. I am afraid to short Gold and I certainly do not want to buy the market against this trendline, preferring to stay flat and see how the market reacts this afternoon when the American markets open.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Silver surged above $24. I will now raise my buy level to 23.30/23.90 with a higher 22.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.25
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