U.S. Equity Markets rose to new all-time highs, led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed with a gain of 1.04%. There was some breakthrough on tax hikes, on reports that the White House could instead push for a 25% corporate tax rate (versus the initial 28% proposal). Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke with the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”), saying that the Fed will not raise Interest Rates as a reaction to temporary inflation. He added that the economy is not close to hitting the Fed’s targets, indicating that policy will remain accommodative. In terms of economic data, Jobless Claims rose again and missed estimates. This was the second straight increase for Jobless Claims, showing that the labour market’s recovery remains choppy. European Markets gained. A group of 20 Finance Ministers said they hope to reach an agreement on a global corporate minimum tax rate by mid-2021 to end tax avoidance by companies. European health authorities, including those from the U.K., Spain, and Italy, placed age restrictions on AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, potentially complicating recovery in the region. CureVac said it could receive approval from the EU for its COVID-19 vaccine by the end of June, boosting the region’s supply outlook. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) could potentially taper its pandemic emergency purchase program (“PEPP”) in the third quarter, according to Austria’s central bank. And ECB President Christine Lagarde continued to call for aggressive fiscal spending to support the economy. Elsewhere, Oil close flat despite a large build in U.S. gasoline stocks, implying lower future demand for crude, while Bitcoin rebounded 3.31% after Wednesday’s sell-off.
To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it finished with a gain of 113 points and is now down 472 points for April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 4092.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points higher for a 0.17% gain at a price of 33,503.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.04% higher at a price of 13,758.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.07% lower at a price of 29,708.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1912.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at $1.3723.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.6% higher at 109.23 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one two points lower at -034%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.75%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points lower at 1.64%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.02% lower at $59.59 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.83% lower at $1,753.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Current Account and Industrial Production at 7.00 am. This is followed by the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin at 12.00 pm and U.S PPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Wholesale Inventories.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 4092 sell level before selling off to my 4081 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to go short again at a price of 4099 and this level was filled after the close. With the RSI closing at 70 last night, I am happy to stay short for now. Everytime the RSI has hit 70 over the past twelve months, we have seen a retracement plus we are so far from the 50-Day Moving Average, it is inevitable that we have some sort of correction starting over the coming week. On top of this, the DSI close at 91% bulls last night. I will add to this trade at 4112 with a now 4123 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My T/P level on this position is 4090 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The Euro fell shy of my 1.1840 buy level with a 1.1862 low print and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1840/1.1880 with a tight 1.1795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1920.
June Dollar Index
My latest 92.55 long position did not work well as I was stopped out of this position yesterday afternoon at a price of 92.18 and I am still flat. As I go to press the Dollar is trading 92.00. We have support from 91.10/91.60 where I will again be a buyer with a 90.75 stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 91.95.
The DAX again traded soft yesterday and I am still flat as my buy range was not tested. I will now raise this buy level to 15010/15080 with a higher 14965 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15125.
The FTSE continues to make new highs for the year with the market hitting my second sell level at 6895 for a now 6870 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level to 6855 while leaving my stop unchanged at a tight 6931. If stopped, I will again be a seller from 6970/7020 with a 7051 stop. If I am taken short a second time, I will have a T/P level at 6935.
Dow Rolling Contract
The boring sideways price action continued for a third consecutive trading session and I am still flat. Ahead of the weekend, I will now raise my sell level to 33730/33900 with a higher 34085’’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has short-term support from 33150/33310 and I will raise my buy level to this area with a 32995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 33595. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 33450
After the NASDAQ traded higher to my initial 13740 sell level we sold off to my revised 13700 T/P level and I am still flat. The NASDAQ has further resistance from 13880/13960 where I will again be a seller with a 14045 ‘’Closing Stop. The NASDAQ has now rallied over 1600 points (13.5%) off the March 8, low as yet again anyone shorting the market gets slammed. Another warning sign for the bulls was the 16.95 closing level in the VIX last night, which is the lowest closing level in nearly 18 months. I am watching the price action in the VIX for a possible temporary top in the US Indices. A rally in the VIX will be key for this top to happen. The NASDAQ has short-term support from 13350/13450 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 13265 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 13820. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13530.
The Bund closed at six- week highs which is no surprise given the amount of Bond buying by the ECB. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 171.30/171.70 with a higher 17085 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 172.00.
Gold Rolling Contract
The weaker Dollar saw Gold rally to its highest level since March 1 and currently trading at 1755 as I go to press. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1712/1727 with a 1699 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1735.
Silver Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, Silver missed my 24.70 buy level with a 24.85 low print and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 24.40/25.00 with a 23.95 higher stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.35.
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