On 09/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets declined as Japan went back into a State of Emergency, ending the day lower, led again by the S&P which closed with a loss of 0.86%. This move lower saw the VIX surge 17%. Investors continued to rotate into the safety of bonds, pushing yields lower, and helping to accelerate the sell-off in stocks. But economic data did not make the situation any better… Weekly Jobless Claims rose unexpectedly last week, with another 373,000 individuals filing for Jobless Claims in the week ending July 3, according to the U.S. Labour Department. This was higher than the prior week’s upwardly revised 371,000 number and Wall Street’s estimate of 350,000 people. This marks the second-lowest level since March 14, 2020, behind only last week’s numbers. It could be that as some States are ending additional government benefits, individuals are rushing to take advantage of them. European Markets closed lower. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) is anticipated to announce new inflation targeting strategy that will enable it to run above the central bank’s 2% target without raising Interest Rates. This could have fuelled concerns over higher inflation. German Export data for May were weaker than estimated, but remained in line with April’s data, suggesting the pace of growth is stabilising. The Spanish government is considering reimposing restrictions in some of its regions as COVID-19 cases rise. In Asia, China’s State Council said it would use central bank policy tools, including a reserve requirement ratio cut, to improve lending capacity and boost economic support. Japan’s Virus Policy Czar Yasutoshi Nishimura said a government advisory panel had approved a new state of emergency in Tokyo covering July 12 to August 22. This also meant that the country would not allow any spectators at this summer’s Olympic games. This was the big story of the day across global markets, sparking fears of a slowing economic recovery. South Korea’s daily COVID-19 infection count surpassed the December peak, as the government warned it could bolster social-distancing measures if the outbreak was not contained. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.72% following positive inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, while Bitcoin fell 5% after a broader cryptocurrency sell-off.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 285 points yesterday and is now ahead by 720 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.86% lower at a price of 4320.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points lower for a 0.75% loss at a price of 34,421.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.60% lower at a price of 14,722.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.63% lower at a price of 27,940.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1841.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.3768.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $110.02.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.60%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.32%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.27% higher at $74.69 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% lower at $1,798.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK GDP which rose 0.8% versus +1.5% expected. At 9.30 am we have UK Trade Balance and this is followed at 12.30 pm by the Minutes from last Month’s ECB Meeting. Finally, we have Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm and the latest Fed Policy Monetary Report at 5.00 pm.
September S&P 500
Yesterday’s session proved again why I will only use a ‘’Closing Stop’’ on my US Indexes. Shortly after I posted the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 4307 average long position, before hitting a subsequent low at 4279. There was no way U.S. Traders would leave a 70 point ‘’Open Gap’’ from Wednesday’s close and the market rebounded to my 4313 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Overnight, the S&P hit a low of 4293 in Asia before rallying to sit higher at 4316 as I send this Commentary. The 4280/4300 area is now critical support for the S&P which I believe will finally be broken either on the next test or the following one. Today, I will be a buyer from 4280/4295 with a 4269 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has left a large Gap from Wednesday and if we rally to close this Gap, I will be a seller from 4340/4355 with a wider 4371’’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4306. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4330.
The Euro rallied off the 1.1780 trendline support, hitting my 1.1840 T/P level on my 1.1830 average long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 1.1760/1.1800 with a tight 1.1725 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1835.
September Dollar Index
The sell-off in the Dollar saw the market hit my 92.40 T/P level on my latest 92.50 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again look to sell the Dollar from 92.80/93.20 with a 93.51 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.55.
The DAX traded the whole of my buy range for a 15400 average long position. The DAX tested the key 15300 support area before buyers came in and pushed the market higher to my 15430 revised T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the DAX is trading higher at 15500. I will not chase the DAX and I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 15250/15320 with a 15195 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15375.
After the FTSE traded lower to my 6950 buy level we had a small rally, enabling me to cover this position at my 6975 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has support from 6880/6930 where I will again be a buyer with a 6835 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6960.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow hit my 34250 buy level we made a low of 34110, just missing my 34100 second buy level before the Bears got frustrated again as the Dow rallied nearly 400 points off the low to sit just below 34500 this morning. This initial move higher saw my 34330 revised T/P level filled and I am now flat. The Dow has strong support at 33800 and this level must be broken for a few days to have confidence that we have a more sustainable top in the market. We have short-term support from 34020/34200 where I will again be a buyer with a 33895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the Dow. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34340.
The NASDAQ traded the whole of my buy range for a 14640 average long position before rallying to my 14675 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has support from 14500/14580 where I will again be a strong buyer with a 14425 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my sell level to 14810/14880 with a lower 14965 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14645. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14760.
My BUND plan worked well as the market rallied to my 17470 sell level before trading lower in the afternoon to my 174.35 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 174.60/175.00 with a lower 175.31 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 174.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1757/1772 with the same 1749 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1779.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded in a narrow range as the key 25.50 support level continues to hold. Ahead of the weekend I will leave my 24.90/25.50 buy level unchanged with the same 24.45 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.80.
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