On 11/10/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets were choppy to end the week, finishing Friday’s session lower, led by the NASDAQ 100 which finished with a loss of 0.51%. Jobs data was the big story of the day. The Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Non-Farm Payroll data for September showed 194,000 new hires versus the expectation for 500,000 and the prior month’s upwardly revised 366,000. The numbers signal the pace of economic growth is slowing. But the Unemployment Rate fell more than expected to 4.8%. The implication is this could push back the Federal Reserve’s timeline on winding down its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Now, all eyes turn to earnings season, which unofficially kicks off this week with reports from the big banks. European Markets closed mixed. German Export data for August unexpectedly declined, as trade with the U.K. fell off and the comparisons grow more difficult compared with last year. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said inflation will stick around for longer than expected, citing staffing shortages and supply-chain problems. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane stated inflation is far from a sustainable move above the central bank’s 2% target, saying recent energy price increases could hurt growth. In Asia, Markit/Caixin’s China composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for September rose versus August, moving back into expansion territory as services sector activity rebounded. The Bank of Japan lowered its quarterly economic outlook for five of the country’s nine regions due to COVID-19 restrictions, implying easy-money policies will remain in place for some time. Communications-equipment giant Samsung Electronics reported preliminary third-quarter operating profit and sales were in line with expectations due to semiconductor and mobile-phone demand. Taiwan’s export figures for September were stronger than expected due to continued strength in semiconductor demand. Elsewhere, Oil rose again by 1.66% after the Department of Energy said it had no plans to sell crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while Bitcoin rose 1% on news that Bakkt’s crypto-linked debit card would soon be available on Google Pay.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 15 points on Friday and is now ahead by 614 points for October after making 2866 points in September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.19% lower at a price of 4391.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 8 points lower for a 0.03% loss at a price of 34,746
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.51% lower at a price of 14,820.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.54% higher at a price of 27,678.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1574.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.3621.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $112.20.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four points higher at -0.15%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed nine basis points higher at 1.16%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.61%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.66% higher at $79.88 a barrel
Gold closed 0.12% lower at $1,753.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or U.S. – America has a semi-holiday for Columbus Day but stock Indexes are open with normal trading hours.
December S&P 500
Despite an awful Unemployment Report, the S&P held on to some of Friday’s early gains before having a small sell-off into the close and I am still flat. The Bulls firmly believe that the Fed will kick the tapering can down the road while the Bond Markets are telling a different story as there is no chance of inflation being ‘’transitory’’. The S&P continues to find strong resistance from 4420/4440. I will now lower my sell level to 4420/4435 with a lower 4451 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also lower my buy level to 4335/4350 with a lower 4321 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4408. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4363.
No Change. I am still long at 1.1590 withy the same 1.1615 T/P level and 1.1525 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market again traded in a narrow rage. I will now lower my sell level to 94.35/94.70 with a 95.01 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 94.10.
I am still flat the DAX. I do not really trust the price action in the DAX and I will now lower my buy level to 14910/14990 with a tight 14845 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15040.
The FTSE continues to trade sideways and outperform the European Indexes. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 6950/7000 with a 6895 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7035.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully, the Dow traded lower to my 34660 T/P level on my latest 34680 average short position and I am now flat. I will continue to be a strong buyer on any further dip lower to 34200/34380 with the same 34050 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has strong resistance from 34950/35100 where I will be a seller with a 35205 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34530. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34795.
The NASDAQ traded in a wide 200 point range on Friday, hitting a high of 14993 before selling off on the back of the 10-Year Yield breaking above 1.60%. This move lower saw my 14810 exit level hit from Thursday’s 14775 short position and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has resistance from 14880/14960 where I will again be a seller with a 15075 ‘’Wider Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14815.
I am still flat the Bund despite Friday’s 50 point sell-off. The Bund has strong support from 168.10/168.60 and I will lower my buy level to this area with a lower 167.75 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 168.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1717/1734 with the same 1703 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1742.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver hit a post NFP high at 23.20 before falling 60 points into the close. I will now raise my buy level to 21.80/22.40 with a higher 21.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 22.75.
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