On 11/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets finished the day lower, after a volatile trading session which saw the VIX closed higher by 6% at a price of 18.84. The NASDAQ 100 led the decline with a loss of 1.44%. CPI data for October was 6.2%, well above the estimate. This shows that inflation is still running hot. Rising inflation increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to react and raise interest rates. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the central bank should begin considering raising rates as soon as the spring of 2022. In fact, he said that he is currently estimating two rate hikes next year. In terms of other economic data, Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 267,000, marking a new post-pandemic low. This is another strong sign of the labour market’s recovery. But the high inflation data overweighed the strong labour market data, sending equities lower. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. Italy’s Industrial Production numbers for September were stronger than anticipated, rising versus August, as machinery and vehicle output rebounded. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said he expects current labour shortages to ease as the economy rebounds to pre-pandemic levels. European Central Bank Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel warned against raising rates too quickly, saying it would hurt households. In Asia, China’s Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) figures for October were higher than expected, rising versus September, as the National Bureau of Statistics cited adverse weather for rising food prices. The Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan’s economic outlook survey for October showed business optimism hit its highest level in seven years. China’s Producer Price Index (“PPI”) data for October hit the highest level in 26 years due to rising energy and raw material costs. South Korea’s Unemployment Rate rose for the second straight month in October, while easing COVID restrictions boosted prospects for job gains. Elsewhere, Oil fell 3.48% as U.S. crude inventories increased, while Gold rose 1.15% as investors rushed into inflation hedges.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 59 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 750 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.82% lower at a price of 4646.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower for a 0.66% loss at a price of 36,079.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.44% lower at a price of 15,985.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.61% lower at a price of 29,106.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% higher.
The Euro closed 09% higher at $1.1478.
The British Pound closed 1.2% lower at 1.3402.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.9%, closing at $113.92.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at -0.24%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 12 basis points higher 0.94%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 13 basis points higher at 1.57%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.48% lower at $80.24 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.15% higher at $1,847.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. GDP, Trade Balance, Index of Services and Industrial Production at 7.00 am. The only other data of note is Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am.
December S&P 500
Although U.S. Banks and the Bond Market are closed tomorrow, it is a normal trading session for the U.S. Indexes. I have been looking for a decent correction in the S&P and finally we are seeing some proof of this with the S&P trading 85 Handles lower from last Friday’s high. As usual the Central Bankers have no clue what is going on in the real world judging by yesterday’s 6.2% print in CPI, the highest reading in over 30 years, since 1990. Back in 1990 Bond Yields were over 7%. Of course, if the S&P continues to sell-off we will see more intervention form the Fed despite the real threat of Stagflation as growth slows down dramatically. The S&P has strong support from 4608/4623 where I will be a buyer with a 4595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 4662/4675 where I will be a seller with a 4687 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4637. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4651.
My Euro plan worked well with the market hitting my 1.1535 buy level before rallying to my 1.1570 tight T/P level. Subsequently the Euro was slammed into the New York close, hitting new lows for 2021, closing at 1.1478. The Euro has strong support from 1.1390/1.1440 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.1335 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1480.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar closed 0.9% higher yesterday, after falling 0.3% at one stage. This is a huge move for the Greenback. This move higher saw my 94.60 sell level triggered. I will add to this trade at 95.10 with a now higher 95.45 stop. I will raise my T/P level to 94.30 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The DAX opened lower yesterday morning, allowing me to cover my 15975 short position for a small loss at 15996 and I am still flat as frustratingly the market just missed my second sell level at 16090. Today, I will be a small seller from 16070/16150 with a tight 16205 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16020.
The sell-off in Sterling prevented the FTSE from falling yesterday as the market again just missed my sell level. I will now lower my sell range to 7330/7370 with a 7415 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7300.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow has now fallen over 550 points from last Monday’s high which is no surprise given how much stocks are over-owned, over-loved, overbought and long over-due for a major decline. Of course, any sell-off will not be straight forward given the level of appetite to buy the dip. The Dow has support from 35750/35900 where I will be a buyer with a 35595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow just missed my 36380 sell level by 30 points yesterday which is frustrating. I will now lower my sell level to 36250/36410 with a lower 36575 ‘’Closing Stop’’ which is just above Monday’s 36565 all-time high. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 36030. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 36135.
Frustrating, the NDX missed my 16260 sell level by 28 points before falling over 2% at one stage and I am still flat. The NDX has strong support from 15820/15920 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 15695 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15990.
The Bund traded lower to my 170.90 T/P level on my 171.05 average short position after U.S. inflation printed its highest level since 1990. Maybe, Lagarde and the rest of the ECB Members will take notice of this number and stop the B/S about inflation been transitory. The Bund has resistance from 170.80/171.30 where I will again be a seller with a 171.75 stop. I do not want to be long the Bund at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 170.50.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold soared yesterday, hitting a high of 1870 before selling off $25 into the New York close after the Dollar rose. Gold has strong support from 1810/1825 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1799 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1833.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 24.05 buy level before hitting my 24.35 T/P level with a high of 25.15 after a rise of 4.5%. Silver has support from 23.65/24.25 where I will be a buyer with a 23.12 stop. If I were taken long I will have a T/P level at 24.55.
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