On 12/04/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble of TraderNoble.com.

U.S. Equity Markets ended the week on another high note, finishing the day higher, led by the Dow which closed with a gain of 0.89%. Markets rose after a choppy start to the morning. Producer price index (“PPI”) data was higher than expected in March, indicating input costs for manufacturers are rising. This could have sparked some fears of rising inflation. However, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida eased some of these concerns. He said the central bank expects inflation to cool off and revert back to normal levels by the end of the year. Only if inflation remains elevated into 2022 will the Fed begin to take that into account. So, the Fed is not raising Interest Rates anytime soon. The Fed announced other moves to cap interest rates. The New York Fed’s System Open Market Account manager said it is looking to expand access to its reverse repo facility, making it cheaper for banks to lend, and keep interest rates in check. There were also reports the Democrats were open to postponing a tax increase to get more Republicans on board with their infrastructure proposal. Bipartisan support could mean the bill passes through Congress faster, boosting economic output. European Markets again closed mixed. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said the next round of government stimulus would be worth $38 billion, hoping to bolster economic growth. German Export data for February were in line with expectations, implying global demand for goods remains steady. Vaccine news also continued its positive trend. The French government hit its first vaccination goal, administering 10 million shots a week before it had estimated it would reach the target. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 87.2 million yesterday, with a daily average of 1.8 million doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.49% lower on reports that Iran was set to bring 2 million barrels per day worth of supply back to the markets, while Gold fell 0.84% as the Dollar rebounded.

To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it finished with a gain of 135 points on Friday and is now down 337 points for April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.77% higher at a price of 4128.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 297 points higher for a 0.89% gain at a price of 33,800.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.63% higher at a price of 13,845.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.2% higher

Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.

Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.20% higher at a price of 29,768.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher

The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1895.

The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at $1.3702.

The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% lower at 109.65 per dollar.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed four points higher at -0.30%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 0.78%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.66%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.49% lower at $59.34 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.84% lower at $1,739.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. We have nothing else of notes on either side of the Atlantic, except  a speech from Fed Member Rosengren at 6.00 pm.

June S&P 500

My latest 4098 short position worked well with the market trading to a low of 4081, enabling me to cover this position at my 4090 T/P level before the market surged in the last two hours of trading to close at yet a new record high of 4118. After my initial T/P level was filled, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the S&P at an average rate of 4113. I am still short with a now higher 4106 T/P level. The Five-day S&P Daily Sentiment Index closed on Friday at 86.6. This implies that the recent 91% DSI reading is not a one-day wonder. The DSI is now positioned similarly to the days leading to the September 2, 2020 high. On top of this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed on Friday at an overbought 72. Each time in the past two years that we have an RSI reading above 70, the S&P has sold off at least 10%. I will leave my stop unchanged at a 4131 ‘’Closing Stop’’ on this position. I will also be an aggressive seller on any further move higher to 4138/4158 with a 4173 stop. I no longer want to be long the S&P at this time. If I am taken short a second time I will have a T/P level at 4123.

EUR/USD

My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my revised 1.1870 buy level before rallying to my 1.1900 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, I will be a buyer from 1.1825/1.1865 with a 1.1789 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1895.

June Dollar Index

I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 91.20/91.70 with a higher 90.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at  92.00.

June DAX

I am still flat as the DAX again missed my buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 15070/15130 with a higher 14995 stop. Despite the DAX trading heavy I still do not want to be short the market at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15175.

June FTSE

After the FTSE missed my 6855 T/P level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit their 6870 short position for a small loss at 6873 and I am still flat. The FTSE has resistance from 6950/7010 where I will again be a seller with a 7045 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 6915.

Dow Rolling Contract

As I was already short the S&P, I waited to sell the Dow which I did at a price of 33780, just before the New York close. I am still short with a now higher 33690 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 33950 with a now higher 34105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given the fact that the DSI closed at 72 I am prepared to take a more aggressive short stance against the Dow. Optimism is at extreme levels while P/E ratios are at extremely high. Internally the Market continues to struggle as witnessed by the McClellan Oscillator which actually fell to close at +81 on Friday. This should not be happening when U.S. Indices are closing at all-time highs. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

June NASDAQ

My latest 13740 short position worked well as the market sold off shortly after the Cash Markets opened to my revised 13700 T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ rallied into the close to sit at a price of 13840 as I go to press. I will now raise my sell level to 13910/14000 with a 14085 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 13845.

June BUND

After the Bund traded lower to my 171.60 buy level, I lowered my second buy level to 171.10. This level has still not been filled. I will now lower my T/P level to 171.80 while leaving my stop unchanged at 170.85. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

I am still flat and I will continue to be a small buyer from 1708/1723 with the same 1699 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1730.

Silver Rolling Contract

My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 25.00 buy level before rallying to my revised 25.28 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver has support from 24.30/24.90 where I will again be a buyer with a 23.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at  25.25.

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