On 12/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets ended the week on a high note, completely reversing Thursday’s aggressive sell-off, as both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 closed at another new all-time high. The Dow led Friday’s rally, ending the session with a gain of 1.30%. Rising Bond Yields helped markets, indicating that investors were reversing Thursday’s rotation into safety and turning back to stocks. The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Economic Report also got some attention on Friday. The report did not tell us anything new, It showed the economy is bouncing back but faces challenges from unemployment and supply-chain constraints. Now, the next catalyst for markets is earnings season, which starts this week with reports from big banks. Once again, it looks like Wall Street is setting a low bar – and an easy hurdle – for the quarter. European Markets closed higher. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that the country would repeal its digital tax on technology companies as soon as a global minimum tax rate is implemented. French European Affairs Commissioner Clement Beaune warned the country’s citizens against travel to either Spain or Portugal due to the increase in COVID-19 infections. Italy’s Industrial Production data for May was weaker than expected, falling versus April, highlighting the uneven regional recovery. In Asia, China’s Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) data for June was weaker than expected, falling versus May, indicating cost pressures may be starting to ease. The Bank of Japan said a continued state of emergency in Tokyo, related to COVID-19, will weigh on economic activity, implying additional economic support may be needed. South Korea’s government said it’s raising social-distancing restrictions to the highest level in Seoul, stoking concerns around the growth outlook. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.29% higher, following positive inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, while Gold rose 0.59% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday and is still ahead by 720 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.13% higher at a price of 4369.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 448 points higher for a 1.30% gain at a price of 34,870.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.71% higher at a price of 14,826.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.25% higher at a price of 28,569.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1865.
The British Pound closed 1% higher at 1.3880.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $110.18.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at 0.66%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points higher at 1.36%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.29% higher at $76.40 a barrel
Gold closed 0.59% higher at $1,808.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Wholesale Price Index which rose 15% versus +1.7% expected. We have no other data of note on either side of the Atlantic. However, we do have speeches from ECB Member De Guindos at 10.00 am and the Fed’s Williams at 2.30 pm.
September S&P 500
Just when it looked like we may finally see a sustained sell-off for a few days, the S&P completely reversed Thursday’s aggressive sell-off, closing at yet another new all-time high. Breadth was strong on Friday. The S&P traded the whole of my high sell-range for a now 4348 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 4344. The S&P has support from 4322/4337 where I will be a buyer with a 4309 ‘’Closing Stop’’. On my short position, I will leave my 4371 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4347.
The 1.1790 trendline held again on Friday and I am still flat the Euro. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1780/1.1825 with a higher 1.1745 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1855.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller on any further rally to 92.70/93.10 with a 93.45 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.40.
The continuing theme of Central Banks not letting any ‘’Bear Market’’ develop was shown again overnight with the Nikkei rallying 2.25%. The DAX has tested the 15300 support level at least 7/8 times over the past two months, but still this key support level holds. This morning, the DAX is trading higher at 15660- 160 points higher from where I marked prices on Friday. I will now raise my buy level to 15410/15490 with a wider 15295 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15535.
The rebound in Cable, is stopping the FTSE from following the other major Indices higher. I am still flat and this morning I will now raise my FTSE buy level to 6930/6980 with a higher 6885 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7010.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully, I had no sell level in the Dow on Friday, with the market now trading over 700 points higher from Thursday’s 34110 low print and I am still flat. This move higher saw the McClellan Oscillator improve from -155 to close at -48 on Friday. The Dow has short-term support from 34360/34520 where I will be a small buyer with a 34245 tight Closing Stop’’. The Dow has resistance from 35120/35270 where I will be a small seller with a 35405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34640. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35020.
With the 14-Day RSI closing at 74 on Friday, it is difficult to make a bullish case for this market. Friday’s rebound saw the market hit my initial 14820 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this trade 14900 with a now higher 15005 ‘’ Closing Stop’’. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 14500/14580 with the same 14425 ‘’Closing Stop’’. On my short position I will now raise my T/P level to 14770. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14645.
The DAILY Sentiment Index for U.S. Treasuries closed at 90% bulls on Friday, indicating that the strong rally in Bond markets over the past few weeks may have run its course. I am still flat the Bund and I will now lower my sell level to 174.35/174.75 with a 17515 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 174.05.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1757/1772 with the same 1748 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1779.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today, I will raise my buy level to 25.10/25.70 with a higher 24.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.10.
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