Trader Noble Market Commentary 12/08/2021

On 12/08/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.

U.S. Equity Markets bounced around as investors digested inflation data, before closing mixed as the Dow closed at a new all-time high with a gain of 0.62% while the NASDAQ 100 closed lower by 0.17%. Inflation data was the big story of the day. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, CPI – which measures price increases for a basket of goods – rose 4.3% in July when excluding volatile products like energy and food. That was in line with Wall Street’s estimate. That is well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. But, more importantly, it came in below June’s reading of 4.5%. If inflation does begin to trend lower as we head into November, it could indicate that inflation is beginning to return to normal levels, around 2%. Federal Reserve speakers were also in focus. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said that he would like to see a few more months of jobs data before the central bank begins to taper its asset purchases. This was followed by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who said that he supports a tapering announcement in September, before beginning the actual tapering in October. European Markets again closed higher The British government said that more than 75% of its population had received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 89% had received at least one dose, helping the prospects for reopening the economy. German CPI came in at 3.1% for July, matching estimates, driven primarily by higher energy prices and easy comparison to last year’s period. London’s Heathrow Airport saw 1.5 million travellers in July, a 70% jump from the same month in 2020, as the U.K. loosened its travel restrictions from other countries. In Asia, Japanese holding company SoftBank said it would hold off on investing in Chinese technology companies until it gets a clearer picture of the regulatory landscape. South Korea’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in July, as government support helped lower the pace of layoffs. South Korean exports surged in the first 10 days of August, driven by heavy demand for semiconductors. Australian consumer confidence fell, but not as much as expected, as the country continues to implement new COVID-19 restrictions. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.46% higher after the White House said it was not calling for U.S. companies to hike output and flood the market with supply, while Gold rose 1.27% on Dollar weakness.

To mark my 2375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 50 points yesterday and is now ahead by 539 points for August, having closed July with a gain of 996 points. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.25% higher at a price of 4447.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 220 points higher for a 0.62% gain at a price of 35,484.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.17% lower at a price of 15,027.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.20% lower at a price of 28,015.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.

The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1741.

The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.3859.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $110.41.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.46%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.59%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.34%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.46% higher at $69.25 a barrel.

Gold closed 1.27% higher at $1,751.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK. GDP which rose 4.8% versus, as expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production and this is followed by U.S. PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have earnings from Disney this afternoon.

September S&P 500

The NFIB Business Sentiment Index was released yesterday and it took a bit of a hit in July, coming in at 99.7, from 102.5 in June. This is the biggest decline of 2021, undercutting the consensus estimate of 102.0 by a fairly hefty margin. Last October, it was sitting at 104.0 and that was before the vaccination process and the ensuing two massive rounds of Fiscal Stimulus. Now that is cause for pause. Expansion plans receded from +15% to +13% and look very depressed from an historical perspective. The Index ‘’Assessing Economic Improvement’’ worsened from -12% to -20% while the ‘’Current Inventory Index’’ has gone from +3% in March, to a record 12% in July. Finally, for the first time this year, the net share raising wages dipped in July to 38% from 39%. This is another report showing that stock markets have lost the run of themselves as there is no doubt in my opinion that the U.S Economy is slowing. Yesterday, after the S&P hit my 4439 sell level I covered this position for a small gain at 4434 as I am still short the Dow. The S&P has further resistance from 4445/4460 where I will again be a seller with a 4471 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 4400/4415 with a higher 4389 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4436. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4425.

EUR/USD

The Euro fell shy of my 1.1680 buy level before rallying post CPI to sit at 1.1740 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1660/1.1700 with a higher 1.1615 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1730.

September Dollar Index

I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 93.30/93.80 with a lower 94.25 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 93.05.

September DAX

The DAX made a new all-time closing high and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 15560/15640 with a tight 15495 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15690.

September FTSE

The FTSE rallied yesterday, and I am still flat. As I am still short the Dow, I will now raise my sell level to 7205/7265 with a higher 7305 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7170.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow rallied 0.62% yesterday, the strongest advance of the three main U.S. Indexes, led by Caterpillar’s 3.55% gain. Yesterday’s move higher saw the Dow hit my 35380 sell level. I am still short and I will now add to this trade at a higher price of 35560. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 35320 while my stop will be unchanged at a ‘’closing price’’ of 35625. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

September NASDAQ

Frustratingly, the NASDAQ just missed my initial 15130 sell level before falling 140 points and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 15080/15160 with a lower 15235 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Remember, a break and close below 14975 will see lower prices. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15030.

September BUND

Remember, when negative Interest Rates were unthinkable? In Europe they have become increasingly normal, even in nominal terms. Subtract inflation to get a real yield and yields are even deeper underwater. German 10 Year Bund Real Yields are now an incredible -4.25%. Of course, this real yield presumes inflation will stay where it is for another 10 years, which is unlikely. The real point here is to highlight the particularly toxic combination now afflicting the developed world: Zero or below Zero Nominal Rates combined with inflation that is historically mild, but still at the highest level in recent memory. The scary part is how Central Banks and Governments are trapped. Raising Rates would aggravate their massive debt payments, by cutting Rates would make them even more negative and might spark more inflation. Where this leads is hard to say, but it definitely will not be good. I am still flat the Bund and I will now lower my sell level to 176.95/177.45 with a lower 177.81 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 176.65.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold rallied yesterday after the CPI print and is testing last Monday’s two-and-a-half-year-long trendline. The line crosses at 1765 and this should act as resistance on any further test. Today, I will be a small seller from 1767/1782 with a 1791 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1760.

Silver Rolling Contract

I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 22.50/23.10 with a higher 21.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.40.

Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.

Hi Everyone

Silver traded lower to my 23.10 buy level before having a small bounce and I have now exited this long position here at 23.21

Kind Regards

Bryan

Update 2

Hi Everyone

Stocks rebounded off afternoon lows to post new all-time closing highs for both the Dow and S&P

This latest move higher has me short the S&P at 4450. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 4442

Just before the close the NASDAQ hit my sell level at 15085. As I am short both the Dow and S&P, I have now exited my short NASDAQ position here at 15072

Kind Regards

Bryan

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