Trader Noble Market Commentary 13/05/2021

On 13/05/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble of TraderNoble.com.

U.S. Equity Markets sold off sharply again on inflation fears, finishing the day lower, led by the NASDAQ which finished yesterday’s session with a loss 2.62%. Inflation was the main story once again. U.S. consumer price index (“CPI”) came in well above estimates. This sparked fears that inflation was surging, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates to stop the economy from overheating Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida tried to ease some of these fears after the release. Clarida reiterated it is more focused on recovering the jobs lost during the pandemic than on gains in inflation. He added that the Fed continues to see the recent rise in prices as temporary. It believes many of these are being driven by bottlenecks such as labor shortages that are hurting production. Clarida said current easy-money policies will remain in place until the Fed can achieve its longer-term goals. But the stock market bears will continue to push the inflation narrative until they are proven wrong. That could remain a headwind for stocks. European Markets closed lower after opening higher. European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said the region’s economy could grow by more than the 4% it’s currently projecting for this year. The European Commission followed this by raising its own expectations. The EC now sees 2021 Gross Domestic Product growth rising from 3.8% to 4.3% while also boosting its 2022 expectation. Euro-Zone Industrial Production data surged in March, but came in below expectations, signalling the regional economic recovery remained uneven. In Asia, South Korea’s unemployment data for April were weaker than expected, falling versus March, as the country’s economy has regained pre-pandemic levels of growth. China’s Ministry of Finance and other government agencies held discussions regarding property tax reform, following up on March commentary about removing speculative purchases. The People’s Bank of China conducted reverse repurchase operations, adding roughly $1.6 billion worth of liquidity to the country’s financial system. Japanese investors worried about valuations after carmaker Nissan Motor and shipbuilder Mitsui E&S guided revenue below expectations due to rising costs. Elsewhere, Gold fell 0.83% on Dollar strength while Bitcoin fell 5% on mixed news.

To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 70 points yesterday and is now down by 26 points for May having closed April with a gain of 1244 points, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 2.14% lower at a price of 4062.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 681 points lower for a 1.99% loss at a price of 33,587.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.62% lower at a price of 13,001.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.61% lower at a price of 28,147.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% higher

The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.2073.

The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at 1.4060.

The Japanese Yen fell 1%, closing at $109.61.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at -0.12%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at 0.89%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed six basis points higher at 1.69%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.83% higher at $66.28 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.83% lower at $1,816.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. The only U.S Data are PPI and the Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm.

June S&P 500

My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my revised 4111 buy level before rallying to my 4123 T/P level and I am still flat. The S&P has now fallen nearly 200 Handles since last Monday’s 4237 high print and is now testing its 50 Day Moving Average at 4045. With the Dow close to its 50 Day MA also, I would expect a decent bounce near current levels. I have mentioned a few times over the past two months that the Fed are trapped and this has been enhanced by yesterday’s CPI data. With so much debt in the system they have no choice but to leave rates unchanged and continue with their massive QE programme. The S&P has strong support from 4042/4057 where I will again be a buyer with a 4029 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4075.

EUR/USD

The Euro traded lower to my 1.2075 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this trade at 1.2030 while leaving my 1.1995 stop unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.2105.

June Dollar Index

My latest 90.35 long position worked well with the Dollar rallying to my 90.55 T/P level and I am still flat. The Dollar has support from 90.00/90.50 where I will again be a buyer with a 89.65 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 90.80.

June DAX

The DAX continues to outperform the U.S Indexes despite most of the Germany economy closed. For me to turn bearish we need to break and close below the key 14900 support level. Today, I will be a small buyer from 14810/14890 with a 14745 stop. I no longer want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15040.

June FTSE

Yesterday morning the FTSE rallied to my 6965 T/P level on my 6940 average long position and I am still flat. This morning the FTSE is trading slightly higher at 6945. The FTSE has support below here from 6820/6870 where I will again be a buyer with a 6775 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6910.

Dow Rolling Contract

With a VIX rising 26% yesterday the Dow got slammed, and is now trading 1500 points below last Monday’s new all-time high. Unfortunately, the Dow did not get through yesterday’s CPI data unscathed and I stopped myself out of my latest 34320 long position at 33950 and I am still flat. I am sure most of you had enough of this position before I took my hit. The last two months have been the hardest market conditions that I have experienced since the February 2020 crash. I cannot see the Fed stand back and led another large correction take place because they are trapped as I mentioned above in my S&P commentary. The 50 Day Moving Average comes in just below here at 33318 and I would expect any test of this area to offer strong support. Today, I will again be an aggressive buyer from 33500/33305 with a 33125 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 33705.

June NASDAQ

My NASDAQ plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to 13195 buy level before rallying to my 13270 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to rebuy the NASDAQ at 13120 before we rallied to my 13180 T/P level and I am still flat despite the market trading lower at 13040 as I go to press. The NASDAQ is now oversold with strong support from 12850/12950 where I will again be a buyer with a 12785 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13040.

June BUND

Late in the European session the Bund hit my second buy level at 169.00 for a now 169.30 average long position. I will now lower my stop on this position to a tight ‘’Closing Price’’ of 168.65 while lowering my T/P level to 169.60. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

I am still flat and I will now lower my buy level to 1785/1797 with a lower 1773 stop If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1805.

Silver Rolling Contract

I am still flat and I will also lower my buy level to 25.80/26.40 with a lower 25.35 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.75.

Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.

Hi Everyone

Finally a nice update to report after a difficult past six weeks as the US Indexes rallied nicely off their respective 50 Day Moving Averages as predicted in this morning’s Daily Commentary.

Both the S&P and Dow traded the whole of my buy range for a 33395 and 4049 long position before rallying to my 33705 T/P level in the Dow and 4075 level in the S&P.

With the Dow now trading above 34000 having risen 800 points off this morning’s low print I have no doubt the Fed intervened again

The DAX traded the whole of my buy range for a 14850 average buy level before rallying to my aggressive 15040 T/P level as the key 14900 support level again held

I bought the FTSE at 6850 before the market rallied to my 6910 T/P level while I also bought the NASDAQ at 12920 before we rallied to my 13040 T/P level.

Earlier the Euro hit my 1.2105 T/P level

My only only position is long the Bund from yesterday at 169.30

Kind Regards

Bryan

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