On 13/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets rose ahead of the start of earnings season, with both the S&P and NASDAQ 100 again closing at new all-time highs. The Dow led yesterday’s rally, closing higher by 0.38%. Markets opened lower before rebounding throughout the day. Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Consumer Expectations survey, showing that 12-month inflation expectations are at the highest level since the survey began in 2013. Vaccine news was positive, as National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said he is certain current COVID-19 vaccines will receive full Food & Drug Administration approval given the positive data. Infrastructure garnered some headlines, as the Senate returned from a recess with lots of work to do before its next recess in August. Overall, there was not a lot of news moving markets. All eyes are on the rest of the week. Earnings season kicks off today, with reports from the big banks. Quarterly Reports will be the big catalyst for markets in the coming weeks. However, European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said next week’s policy meeting will introduce a new framework to provide continued support for the regional economy. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the government is very close to easing many of its COVID-19-related social-distancing restrictions but urged continued public caution. A survey from advisory firm BDO showed that British Business Confidence has risen to the highest level since 2005, as companies prepare for the lifting of coronavirus restrictions. In Asia, People’s Bank of China adviser Wang Yiming said the recent Reserve Ratio cut should ensure the financial system has ample liquidity. China’s Ministry of Commerce accused the U.S. of “unreasonable suppression” of its companies and undermining international trade rules after 23 entities were added to the White House’s blacklist. The Bank of Japan is expected to lower its growth outlook for this year and maintain current economic support when it holds its policy meeting later this week. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency said the highest level coronavirus related social-distancing restrictions will go into effect in Seoul to try and curb a recent rise. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.52% on increased fears surrounding how the Delta variant could impact global growth, while Bitcoin closed 4% lower on little news.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 40 points yesterday and is now ahead by 760 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.35% higher at a price of 4384.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher for a 0.38% gain at a price of 34,996.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.35% higher at a price of 14,877.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.55% higher at a price of 28,727.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1858.
The British Pound closed unchanged at 13880.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $110.39.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.65%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.37%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.52% lower at $76.01 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.22% lower at $1,804.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of June Final CPI which came in as expected with a rise of 2.3%. At 11.00 am we have U.S NFIB Business Optimism Index, followed by CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the Monthly Budget Statement at 7.00 pm.
Earnings due this afternoon from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.
September S&P 500
I was lucky yesterday that shortly after I posted the S&P made a low of 4342, thus enabling me to cover Friday’s 4348 average short position at my 4344 T/P level and I am still flat. Subsequently the S&P rallied 38 Handles, closing at a new all-time high of 4380 as this relentless rally has seen the S&P close higher for 12 of the past 15 trading sessions. The S&P has not closed below its 200 Day Moving Average since June 2020, leaving a series of unfilled gaps in the process. Last Thursday’s 1.7% fall in the S&P was again ferociously bought and once again new highs have ensued. This rally continues despite the lack of participation below the surface as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which continues to trade negatively, closing at -28 last night. This move higher leaves a huge one-way positioned market, the likes that we have never seen before. Everyone has got comfortable in buying dips and in my opinion one of these sell-offs will bust through support and the buy the dip will for a change get slammed. I am looking for a 300-400 point sell-off in the S&P followed by a mega year-end rally. When the character of the market changes, traders will be unprepared. Today, the S&P has resistance from 4390/4405 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 4421 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 4342/4357 with a 4329 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4377. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4367.
The Euro missed my initial 1.1825 buy level with a 1.1836 low print and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 1.1790/11830 with a higher 1.1755 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1860.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 92.60/93.00 with a lower 93.35 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.35.
The DAX followed the S&P higher yesterday and is now trading near all-time highs at 15760 this morning. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 15490/15560 with a higher 15435 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer from 15240/15310 with a 15175 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15605. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 15370.
No Change. My only interest in buying the FTSE is still on a dip lower to 6930/6980 with the same 6885 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7010.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow is still trading below its May 10, 35093 all-time high despite the NASDAQ closing higher for each of the past eight weeks, with a new high occurring daily. I am still flat the Dow and today, I will continue to be a seller from 35120/35270 with the same 35405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has short-term support from 34600/34750 and I will be a small buyer in this area with a 34485 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34860. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35020.
I am still short from last Friday at 14820. I will continue to look to add to this position at 14900 while leaving my 15005 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 14785 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 174.50/17490 with a higher 175.26 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 174.25.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold closed again above $1800 last night. I still do not trust this market, thus leaving my 1757/1772 buy level unchanged with the same 1748 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1779.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver just missed my 25.70 buy level with a 25.85 low print before rallying to sit at 26.25 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 25.30/25.90 with a higher 24.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.25.
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