On 13/10/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.

U.S. Equity Markets were little changed throughout much of yesterday, before again selling off into the close, led by the Dow finishing lower by 0.34%. Markets opened slightly lower on a quiet day, before bouncing around for the rest of the day. Federal Reserve speakers made headlines, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic saying that the Fed may allow inflation to overshoot the 2% target for a few years to achieve an average 2% target. However, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida noted that he expects many of today’s pricing pressures to be transitory. In terms of economic data, Job Openings fell for the first time in 2021 but still remained at the second-highest level on record. This is a sign that businesses are still looking to bolster their workforces. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said he does not expect the recent rise in labour costs to be permanent, advocating the central bank needs to go slow on stimulus removal. Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell for the fifth straight month in September, with survey respondents continuing to cite supply-chain bottlenecks as the main issue. French Finance Minister Bruno LeMaire said the country’s relationship with the U.S. remains strained over various security issues, ahead of a Finance Ministers’ meeting in Washington, D.C. In Asia, China’s growth concerns festered after real estate developer China Evergrande was said to miss another bond payment and coal-mine flooding stoked power generation worries. Japan’s preliminary machine tool order data for September rebounded versus August, as the pace of growth and yen value increased on a domestic and foreign basis. The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged, saying “sound growth” is expected to continue, and it will adjust monetary policy appropriately. National Australia Bank’s business confidence index for September rose into positive territory, on optimism restrictions will ease this month and next. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat on the day  while Bitcoin fell 4% on profit-taking.

To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 90 points yesterday and is now ahead by 823 points for October after making 2866 points in September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.24% lower at a price of 4350.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 117 points lower for a 0.34% loss at a price of 34,378.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.34% lower at a price of 14,662.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.94% lower at a price of 28,230.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.

The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1531.

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3585.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $113.65.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed two points higher at -0.09%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed six basis points lower at 1.14%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points lower at 1.57%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.03% higher at $81.04 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.32% higher at $1,760.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have German CPI at 7.00 am, followed by U.K. Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance and Index of Services at 9.30 am. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production and U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have CPI at 1.30 pm and the FOMC Minutes from last Month’s Meeting at 7.00 pm. Earnings from JP Morgan will released this afternoon.

December S&P 500

My latest 4339 average long S&P position worked well with the market trading as high as 4370, thus hitting my 4348 T/P level and I am now flat Evergrande contagion continues to spread which is no surprise because if you cut off funding to a highly leveraged sector, and it sees sales collapse as well, bad things tend to happen to liquidity. The FTSE Chinese – High – Yield Index has now tumbled to 275.4 which is the lowest level since late 2015. Just last May it was trading at 375.4 and looks like a falling knife. This price action would explain why U.S. traders are happy to sell rallies. This will continue until we break and close over the 50-Day Moving Average. The S&P looks like a gigantic rounding top but it will take a break and close below 4240 for the Bears to regain control. Markets will be volatile on the release of CPI at 1.30 pm. A 6% print will see the S&P get hit hard while a 5% Handle should see another relief rally. I will continue to be buyer on any dip lower to 4288/4303 with a 4275 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I do not want to be short the S&P today especially as we have the FOMC Minutes at 7.00 pm. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4316.

EUR/USD

Much weaker than expected Economic data from Europe saw the Euro hit a low so far at 1.1527. I am still long from last week at 1.1590 with the same 1.1525 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1605 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

December Dollar Index

No Change. I am still a seller on any further rally to 94.70/95.10 with the same 95.37 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 94.35.

December DAX

The DAX again traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. Ahead of U.S. CPI, I will again lower my buy level to 14790/14870 with a lower 14725 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14925.

December FTSE

No Change. I am still a buyer from 6930/6980 with the same 6875 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7020.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow fell shy of my 34230 buy level with a 34246 low print before rallying to an afternoon high at 34600. Subsequently we sold off into the close to sit at 34320 as I go to press. I will now lower my buy level to 34030/34180 with a lower 33885 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the CPI and FOMC Minutes I do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If I am taken long  I will have a T/P level at 34320.

December NASDAQ

I am still flat as the NASDAQ never came close to yesterday’s buy level. The NASDAQ has strong support from 14400/14480 and I will lower my buy level to this area with a wider 14295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14550.

December BUND

The Yield on the Bund is close to turning positive, closing last night at -9 basis points. The Bund has strong support from 167.30/167.90 and I will lower my buy level to this area with a 166.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 168.30.

Gold Rolling Contract

The boring sideways action in Gold continues and I am still flat. I do not want to chase the price of Gold higher, leaving my 1716/1733 buy range unchanged with the same 1703 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1741.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 21.55/22.15 with the same 20.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 22.50.

Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.

Hi Everyone

Higher than expected US CPI has led to a further sell-off  in the Dow while technology stocks are hold in on the back of Treasury yields falling
The Dow made a low so fat at 34110, hitting my 34150 buy level before bouncing small. I do not like the price action in the  Dow given the massive Rounding  Top that I mentioned in my  Daily Commentary
I have now exited this position here  at 34230 and I am now flat
Kind Regards
Bryan
To view the current daily levels commentary (which non-members can only view in older reports) you would need to purchase a Trader Noble Commentary Subscription from US$50/month.


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