U.S. Equity Markets were volatile on vaccine and inflation concerns, before ending yesterday’s session with mixed results. Markets were lower early in the morning, before turning sharply higher. Vaccine news sparked some concerns, after the U.S. halted Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine over blood clot fears. Johnson & Johnson also said it was delaying the rollout of its vaccine in Europe pending an investigation. Despite this, the White House said the halt would not impact the country’s vaccine rollout. Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) data also came in above estimates, sparking fears of a spike in inflation. But core CPI came in below estimates. This data coincides with what we have been hearing from members of the Federal Reserve… Inflation may raise near term, but the issue will be temporary. Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin remained optimistic on the economy, saying that it should be back to full output by the fall. Now, all eyes turn to the start of earnings season this afternoon. European Markets closed mixed. Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for April was weaker than expected, falling versus March, amid ongoing COVID-19 related lockdowns. The German cabinet was said to have passed a bill to make tighter social-distancing restrictions mandatory in areas considered to be coronavirus hotspots. And the Bank of France said that the country’s economy was faring better through the most recent round of lockdowns. Elsewhere, Oil gained 1.16% as OPEC raised its demand outlook for 2021, while Gold rose 0.73%, after CPI data pointed to a pickup in inflation, boosting hedges like gold.
To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it finished with a gain of 55 points yesterday and is now down 102 points for April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.33% higher at a price of 4141.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points lower for a 0.20% loss at a price of 33,677.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.21% higher at a price of 13,986.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.2% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.72% higher at a price of 29,751.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1950.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at $1.3755.
The Japanese Yen closed 03% higher at 109.05 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one points lower at -0.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.77%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points lower at 1.62%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.18% higher at $60.40 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.73% higher at $1,745.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am and this is followed at 12.00 pm by U.S MBA Mortgage Applications. At 1.30 pm we have the Import/Export Price Index ahead of a speech from the ECB’s Lagarde at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Chair Powell at 5.00 pm and the Fed’s Beige Book at 7.00 pm.
June S&P 500
Despite the S&P trading in wide 39 Handle range, the VIX hit new lows for the year, closing 1.55% lower at 16.65. I feel that I am one of the few voices in the market expressing my concerns about the elevated state of the U.S Stock Market at this time. Already in April we have left five ‘’Open Gaps’’ which is incredible especially as the RSI rose again to close at 73 last night. As you know all ‘’Open Gaps’’ get filled in the S&P and we have at least 11 Open Gaps going back to last November’s 3210 low print, ahead of the Presidential Election. We are in a huge bubble and as we know from history nothing matters in a bubble until it does and bursts. Yesterday’s late rally saw the S&P trade higher to my 4135 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this trade at 4150 with the same 4161 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 4125 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.1880 buy level before rallying to my 1.1910 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro is trading higher at 1.1950 as I go to press. We have support from 1.1880/1.1920 where I will again be a buyer with a tight 1.1845 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1950.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat and today I will lower my buy level to 91.10/91.50 with a lower 90.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 91.80
I am still flat as yet again the DAX traded in a narrow range below the highs made before the Easter break. I will now raise my buy level to 15080/15150 with a higher 15025 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15190.
No Change. I am still a seller from 6910/6960 with the same 7005 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 6875.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow just missed my 33850 sell level with a 33820 high print before falling almost 300 points on the Johnson and Johnson vaccine news and I am still flat. I will not chase the market lower and I will leave my 33850/34010 sell level unchanged with the same 34135 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 33725.
The NASDAQ hit a new all-time high as the market traded higher to my 13930 sell level. I will add to this trade at 14020 with a now higher 14105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my T/P level to 13880 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 170.65/171.05 with a higher 170.12 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 171.35.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold missed my 1716 buy level before closing 0.75% higher and I am still flat. Gold has short-term support from 1709/1725 where I will be a buyer with a 1698 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1732.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as the market rallied to my 25.05 T/P level on my latest 24.80 long position and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 24.35/24.95 with a 23.81 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.30.
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