On 14/05/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble of TraderNoble.com.

After two consecutive ‘’down days’’ U.S. equity markets rose yesterday as investors digested jobs and inflation data, with the Dow leading the recovery, closing higher by 1.29%. Weekly Jobless Claims hit another new post-pandemic low. That marked the second straight week and the third time in the last month that Jobless Claims have hit a pandemic-era low. This is a strong sign for the labour market’s recovery. On the inflation side, Producer Price Index (“PPI”) data for April rose more than expected on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. Again, this fuels the fears of runaway inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates. But unlike Wednesday, these concerns did not lead to a sharp sell-off. Instead, markets rose, likely with the focus on the Federal Reserve stressing that the inflation is temporary. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that multiple months of data were still needed to get a clear picture on the central bank’s policy stance. In terms of reopening, the CDC said that vaccinated individuals do not need to mask or distance, which would help accelerate a return to normal. European Markets closed lower after a volatile session. Regional financial institutions are lobbying the European Central Bank to extend pandemic-driven capital relief measures beyond the June 27 deadline in order to support lending growth. Italian Prime Minster Mario Draghi called on the European Union to ease debt rules as a way to promote increased fiscal spending and support growth The European Medicines Agency said it is confident that current COVID-19 vaccines work against the new variant coming out of India. In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the Japanese economy would remain below pre-pandemic levels for some time. China’s money supply growth data for April were weaker than expected, falling versus March, as the People’s Bank of China has encouraged banks to slow loan growth. Japanese investors’ worries about valuations increased after investing and technology giant Softbank’s earnings raised concerns about continued share buybacks. Elsewhere, Oil closed 35% lower after Colonial said its pipeline would be mostly back online by the end of the week, while Bitcoin fell 10% after Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company would halt acceptance of bitcoin payments.

To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 970 points yesterday and is now ahead by 944 points for May having closed April with a gain of 1244 points, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 1.22% higher at a price of 4112.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 433 points higher for a 1.29% gain at a price of 34,021.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.83% higher at a price of 13,109.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 11%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.79% lower at a price of 27,448.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower

The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.2082.

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.4048.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $109.44.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.13%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.90%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points lower at 1.65%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.5% higher at $63.78 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.22% higher at $1,823.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have the Minutes from last month’s ECB Meeting at 12.30 pm. This is followed by U.S Retail Sales and the Import/Export Price Index at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm, Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Business Inventories and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

June S&P 500

After a difficult few weeks, yesterday’s calls worked perfectively as I correctly called for the U.S. Indexes to bottom of their respective 50 Day Moving Averages. As tends to happen the first test of this key support is followed by a large rally while subsequent tests will see smaller rallies before eventually the market breaks and accelerates lower. After the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 4049 average long position, the S&P rallied back above 4120, thus enabling me to cover this position at my 4075 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be an aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 4052/4067 with a 4039 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 4135/4150 where I will be a small seller with a 4163 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at  4083. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4125.

EUR/USD

The Euro rallied to my 1.2105 T/P level on Wednesday’s 1.2075 long position and I am now flat. I will look to buy the Euro again from 1.2000/1.2045 with a 1.1965 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2080.

June Dollar Index

I am still flat and today I will continue to be a buyer from 90.00/90.40 with the same 89.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 90.70.

June DAX

After a rough few weeks in relation to my DAX calls it was nice that the market sold off to my 14850 average buy level before we rallied to my aggressive 15040 T/P level and I am still flat. Yet again the DAX has bounced off the key 14900 support level. Today, I will again be a buyer from 14910/14980 with a 14835 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15040

June FTSE

My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 6850 average buy level before rallying to my 6910 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 6830/6880 with a 6795 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6920.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow made a morning low of 33295, thus hitting my average buy level at 33395 before rallying to an afternoon high at 34181 before falling 200 points into the close. I covered my long position too early at my 33705 T/P level and I am still flat on a day when the VIX fell 16%. I have no doubt that the Fed bought the market at the 50 Day Moving Average. As mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, the Fed are trapped and will do everything in their power to prevent another crash. However, circumstances are different now, as we have higher Bond Yields. Higher inflation and a stock market that is seriously overvalued. The 50 Day MA comes in at 33373 this morning and the market will rally on any test of this area over the coming days. Today, I will be a small buyer on any dip lower to 33600/33750 with a 33495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also be an aggressive buyer from 33200/33350 with a wider 32295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has resistance from 34280/34470 where I will be a small seller with a 34625 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at  33890. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 33525. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34150.

June NASDAQ

My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 12920 buy level before rallying to my 13040 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer 12780/12880 with a wider 12675 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12970.

June BUND

No Change. I am still long from Wednesday at 169.30 with a now lower 169.45 T/P level. I will leave my stop unchanged at 168.65 ‘’Closing Price only’’.

Gold Rolling Contract

I am still flat. My only interest in buying the market is still on a dip lower to 1784/1799 with a 1773 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1806.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still a buyer from 25.80/26.40 with the same 25.35 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.75.

Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.

Hi Everyone

The S&P rallied to my 4136 sell level before selling off to my 4125 T/P level after the much weaker than expected release of U.S Retail Sales.
Subsequently  we have rallied again. It is so difficult to be short on a Friday as we have seen since the Presidential Election last November.
I will look to sell the S&P again from 4147/4162 with a tight 4171 ”Closing Stop”
If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4136.
In the last few minutes the Dollar has traded lower to my 90.35 buy level. I will now lower my  T/P level on this position to 90.55
Kind Regards
Bryan
To view the current daily levels commentary (which non-members can only view in older reports) you would need to purchase a Trader Noble Commentary Subscription from US$50/month.

 

Register for a 2 week free trial today, pass a Growth, Venture or Rocket Tryout and get a funded prop trading account for upto $120,000.


0 Comments

Leave a Reply

Avatar placeholder

Your email address will not be published.