On 14/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets largely shrugged off inflation fears before declining into the close, led by the S&P which closed with a small loss of 0.35%. This small decline in stocks saw the VIX close 5.88% higher at 17.12. Inflation data were the big catalyst yesterday. Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) came in above estimates, and above the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, for the second straight month. This could stoke fears of inflation (and the Fed removing support from the economy), and cause the bears to press their short bets. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that now was the time for the central bank to begin tapering its Asset Purchases. Again, this could stoke fears of a lack of stimulus from the central bank. The other big catalyst today was the start of earnings season – with reports from banking giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS). The reports were positive, with JPMorgan releasing another $3 billion from its provisions for bad loans and making positive commentary on the rebound in consumer spending. Investors will continue to watch earnings reports for the market’s next big move. European Markets closed mixed. European Central Bank Supervisory Board Member Margarita Delgado said it will most likely lift dividend limits later this year, but would halt excessive payouts. The Bank of England removed restrictions on bank dividends and share buybacks as the economy continues to recover. German Health Minister Jens Spahn said the incidence of coronavirus infections is increasingly losing its significance with regards to social-distancing measures. In Asia, Japan’s Defense Ministry said Taiwan’s stability was important for the defense of its country, potentially stoking regional political tensions. China’s export data for June were stronger than expected, rising versus May, and indicating global economic demand remains strong. The Bank of Japan was said to consider offering to pay interest to banks lending to businesses supporting climate change, in an attempt to support economic growth. South Korea’s Disease Control and Prevention Agency said daily coronavirus infections exceeded 1,000 for the seventh straight day, but eased versus the recent high of 1,378. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.61% higher while Bitcoin sold off overnight and is currently trading 3% lower at $31,800.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 115 points yesterday and is now ahead by 875 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points.
The S&P 500 closed 0.35% lower at a price of 4369.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 107 points lower for a 0.31% loss at a price of 34,888.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.02% lower at a price of 14,874.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.32% lower at a price of 28,626.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.5% lower at $1.1790.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.3830.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $110.51.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.28%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at 0.62%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points higher at 1.41%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.61% higher at $77.23 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.13% higher at $1,808.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK CPI which rose 2.5% versus 22% expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production and this is followed at 12.00 pm by U.S MBA Mortgage Applications. Next , we have U.S PPI at 1.30 pm and the Bank of Canada Rate Decision at 3.00 pm. Finally, Fed Chair Powell Testifies before Congress at 5.00 pm.
Earnings Due This Afternoon from Delta Airlines, Bank of America and Citigroup.
September S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 4357 buy level before rallying to my 4367 T/P level and I am now flat. Internally the market was very weak yesterday as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed at -112. The weak Breadth tells us Institutions are unloading long positions and that we should be prepared for a market sell-off from here. A break and close below 4290 in the September Contract would confirm this view. The S&P has short-term support from 4323/4338 where I will be a small buyer with a 4309 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance at yesterday’s 4383 high print. I will be a seller from 4378/4393 with a 4405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4347. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4369.
The Euro traded the whole of yesterday’s buy range and I am now long at an average rate of 1.1810. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1825 while leaving my 1.1755 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
After the Dollar traded higher to my 92.60 initial sell level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 92.45 and I am still flat. Today, I will again be small seller from 92.90/93.30 with a higher 93.65 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.60.
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 15490/15550 with a 15.435 stop. If I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be an aggressive buyer from 15240/15310 with the same 15175 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15590. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 15380.
No Change. I am still a buyer on any further dip to 6930/6980 with the same 6885 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7010.
Dow Rolling Contract
The negative divergence continues. The Dow had every chance to break the May 10 high of 35093 but failed miserably again at this attempt yesterday, before having a small sell-off into the close. I am still flat and I will continue to be a small buyer from 34500/34650 with a tight 34395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my sell level to 35090/35240 with a lower 35375 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34770. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34990.
The NASDAQ made yet another new all-time high, trading higher to my second sell level at 14900 for a now 14860 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 14830 while leaving my 15005 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
I am still flat the Bund with the market again trading in a narrow range during yesterday’s session. I will leave my 174.50/174.90 sell level unchanged with the same 175.26 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 174.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
I still do not trust the break of Gold over $1800. I am reluctant to chase the market higher, thus leaving my 1757/1772 buy level again unchanged with the same 1748 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1779.
Silver Rolling Contract
Twice Silver missed my 25.90 buy level before rallying 40 points and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my buy level to 25.05/25.65 with a lower 24.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.95.
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