On 15/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
After a volatile week, U.S. Equity Markets finished Friday’s session higher, led by NASDAQ 100 closing with a gain of 1.04%. As a result the VIX closed 8% lower at a price of 16.29. Friday saw a couple important economic data releases. JOLTS Job Openings showed that businesses continue to look to hire at a near-record pace, while the pace of people quitting their jobs surged in September. The other important release was University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The survey showed that Consumer Sentiment fell to the lowest level in 10 years, with people citing rising inflation as a huge concern. Earnings season is more or less finished, with 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting. Of those companies, 81% have beaten analyst estimates for earnings. That is well above the historical rate of 76%, according to data from FactSet, implying earnings could remain a tailwind for markets going forward. European Markets declined. Euro-Zone Industrial Production data for September fell less than estimated, as supply-chain issues did not cause as big of a problem. Germany’s government said annual tax revenue should be $40 billion higher than it forecast in May through 2025, totalling around $206 billion. ECB member Olli Rehn said that inflation may be around longer than expected, but added that the pressures are still temporary. In Asia, China’s Central Committee called on the country to unite around President Xi Jinping and work toward meeting his goals for the next three centuries. Japanese exporters rallied as Japanese Yen weakness boosted the sales and earnings outlook. The city of Beijing called on companies to cancel all non-essential conferences as daily COVID infections rose to the highest level since June of last year. South Korea’s import price index figures for October rose versus September, hitting the highest level since 2008, fuelling inflation concerns. OPEC lowered its crude demand forecast for 2022, citing lower demand from both China and India. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1% as OPEC lowered its crude demand forecast for 2022, citing lower demand from both China and India while Bitcoin sold off 2% after the SEC denied an application for a bitcoin spot ETF.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 20 points on Friday, and is now ahead by 800 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.72% higher at a price of 4682.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points higher for a 0.50% gain at a price of 36,100.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.04% higher at a price of 16,199.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.2% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.59% higher at a price of 29,277.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1439.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.3420.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $113.91.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at -0.26%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower 0.91%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.57%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1% lower at $79.80 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.20% higher at $1,865.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance at 10.00 am. The only other data of note is the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm.
December S&P 500
There is a new darling stock on Wall Street called Rivian, the Electric Vehicle Company that just came public last Wednesday. It is seriously mind boggling when this company has not earned any discernible revenue yet and is now the biggest company by market value with no revenue. Mind Boggling valuations are exactly what one expects at the end of a mania. The coming crash will be equally as mind boggling for different reasons. Friday’s move higher saw the whole of my S&P sell range triggered after a surge in the last 20 minutes of trading. I am now short at an average rate of 4674 with the same 4687 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 4665. Meanwhile, I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 4608/4623 with the same 4595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4637.
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1.1370/1.1420 with the same 1.1325 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1460.
December Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar from last week at an average rate of 94.85. I will leave my stop and T/P levels unchanged at 95.45 and 94.65 respectively.
The DAX missed my 16055 T/P level by five points. I am still short at 16090 with a now higher 16065 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 16160 while leaving my 16205 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The FTSE traded heavy for most of Friday’s session as the market hit my 7350 T/P level on my 7370 latest short position and I am now flat. Today, I will be a seller from 7380/7430 with a tight 7461 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level again at a price of 7350.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow rallied on Friday, just missing 35850 buy level and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 35800/35950 with a higher 35675 ‘’Closing Stop’’. As I am short both the NDX and S&P, I will have no sell level in the Dow this morning. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 36080.
Late in Friday’s session the NDX traded the whole of my sell range for a now 16165 average short position. I will now lower my stop to a ‘’Closing Price’’ of 16292, while raising my T/P level on this trade to 16130.
The Bund traded higher on Friday, hitting my 171.00 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 170.80 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 171.50 while leaving my 171.81 stop unchanged.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold as the market continues to hold above last week’s break of the 30-Month Trendline at 1825. With the Dollar as strong as it is I will not chase this breakout, leaving my 1825/1840 buy level unchanged with the same 1813 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1847.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 24.20/24.80 with a higher 23.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.10.
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