U.S. Equity Markets surged on positive economic data, with all three main Indexes closing at new all-time highs. Jobless claims fell, and came in well below estimates. In fact, they hit the lowest level since the pandemic disrupted the labour market last March. This is a good sign for the labour market’s recovery. Retail sales data also surged in March, boosted by the most recent round of stimulus cheques. That marked the second month-over-month increase for retail sales so far in 2021. Housing market data also gave reason for optimism. Homebuilder sentiment increased in April, despite headwinds from high supply-chain costs, as demand remains elevated. Vaccine news was positive once again, with Moderna saying that it could have a booster shot for COVID-19 strains ready by the fall. Earnings continued to show optimism over the economy, with Bank of America posting better-than-expected earnings and revenue. European Markets closed higher for the second consecutive trading session. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the economy will need both fiscal and monetary support until well after the COVID-19 crisis is over. European Union Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides said it is still aiming to have 70% of all adults in the region vaccinated by the end of the summer. The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) told the EU to boost spending by 3% of gross domestic product in order to fuel the economic recovery. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the economy was gathering upward momentum, but the central bank will continue to support financial and economic stability. The People’s Bank of China left its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged, signalling it did not see the need for easier terms for financial institution borrowing. South Korea’s central bank left interest rates unchanged, as Governor Lee Ju-Yeol said he anticipates economic growth in the mid-3% range this year versus 3% last year. Elsewhere, Gold surged 1.68% on a major drop in Treasury yields and weakness in the dollar, while Bitcoin rose 2.53% as cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase debuted on the Nasdaq exchange.
To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it finished with a loss of 145 points yesterday and is now down by 17 points for April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.11% higher at a price of 4170.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points higher for a 0.90% gain at a price of 34,035.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.61% higher at a price of 14,026.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.07% higher at a price of 29,642.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1969.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at $1.3785.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at 108.75 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four points lower at -0.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed nine basis points lower at 0.73%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points lower at 1.57%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.29% higher at $63.39 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.68% higher at $1,761.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance and CPI at 10.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S Building Permits and Housing Starts. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan did not work well as the relentless rally carried the market to yet another all-time High. I went short at an average rate of 4142 before being stopped on the close at 4161 and I am still flat. The Daily Sentiment Index closed again above 90% bulls last night while the RSI closed at a new 14-month high above 73. We are now trading at a record 202% Market Cap to GDP, while at the same time 96% of the S&P stocks are trading above their respective 200-Day Moving Averages. On top of this the S&P is trading well above its Quarterly Bollinger Band. In my opinion, traders are engaging in investing behaviour that would be severely punished in any other time in history. But, because they are not the belief in further rallies becomes self-fulfilling. As a result the S&P has now rallied nearly 300 Handles since the 3839 low print on March 25. The S&P has further resistance from 4170/4186 where I will again be a seller with a 4201 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 4100/4115 with a tight 4089 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4155. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4129.
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1.1910/1.1950 with a tight 1.1885 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1980.
June Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a buyer from 91.05/91.45 with the same 90.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 91.75.
After the DAX traded higher to my revised 15275 sell level I covered this short position for a small gain at 15245 and I am still flat. Despite the U.S Indices hitting new highs, the DAX is struggling. We have resistance from 15350/15430 where I will again be a seller with a 15505 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 15010/15090 with a higher 14945 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15310. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15130.
The FTSE traded higher to my 6940 sell level. I am still short and I will now add to this trade at 7000 with a now higher 7035 stop. I will also raise my T/P level to 6915 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The incredible announcement that Bank of America is buying $25bn of their own stock sent the Dow to new all-time highs. As a result, the Dow traded the whole of my sell range for a now 33970 average short position. I will leave my stop unchanged at a 34205 ‘’Closing Stop’’ while raising my T/P level to 33915. The RSI for the Dow closed at 72.39 last night, following a 2000 point rally in the last three weeks. Traders continue to ignore tax hikes, the insane level of debt and valuations but in my opinion, you ignore these all you want as this is what happened when the late Bernie Madoff blew up his fund 20 years ago
Apologies my NASDAQ commentary never got posted yesterday. I did go short in small size late in the day at a price of 14000. I will add to this trade at 14080 with a now higher 14155 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My T/P level on this position is 13940 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
The weaker Dollar and weakness in Treasury Yields saw Gold surge 1.68% yesterday and I am still flat as thankfully we had no sell level in yesterday’s commentary. I will now raise my buy level to 1730/1745 with a tight 1718 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1752.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 24.80/25.40 with a higher 24.35 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.75.
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