U.S. Equity Markets fell as investors digest inflation and Retail Sales data ending the day lower, led by the NASDAQ 100 which ended yesterday’s session with a loss of 0.69%. As a result, the VIX closed a further 4% higher at 17.02. Economic data releases weighed on markets. The main two being watched were Retail Sales and PPI. Retail sales fell more than expected in May, as consumers pulled back on big-ticket purchases (like autos) in favour of smaller spending at places like restaurants. And PPI data came in higher than expected, stoking inflation fears in the U.S. economy. Now investors will wait and see how the Federal Reserve handles this evening’s policy announcement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. In other economic data, Homebuilder Confidence fell, as rising material prices slowed the rate of new construction. But the release showed that demand remains elevated. Infrastructure remained in the news, with reports suggesting that President Joe Biden would give bipartisan negotiations 7 to 10 days to show any progress, after which he will try and push the bill through via budget reconciliation. European Markets again closed higher. The Euro-Zone’s Trade Balance data for May were weaker than anticipated, as surging imports signalled rebounding regional economic demand European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said it will not withdraw stimulus before all countries in the region have seen a sustained economic rebound. The Bank of France also boosted its full-year economic growth outlook from 5.4% to 5.8%, citing strong spending and investment. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China left its one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged, implying the central bank still feels it is too soon to tighten monetary policy. Bank of Japan officials were said to see no need to increase bond purchases as part of its policy update later this week, opting instead to wait and see the effects of tweaks made in March. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol hinted late last week the central bank would look to commence an orderly exit of easy-money policies if the economic recovery remained strong. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.93%, to the highest level since 2018 on demand optimism, while Gold fell 0.28%.
To mark my 2325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 220 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1279 points for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.20% lower at a price of 4246.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 94 points lower for a 0.27% loss at a price of 34,299.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.69% lower at a price of 14,030.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.96% higher at a price of 29,441
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.2128.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.4079.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $110.12.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -023%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.77%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.50%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.93% higher at $72.12 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.28% lower at $1,856.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index at 7.00 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. At 1.30 pm we have Housing Starts, Building Permits and the Import/Export Price Index. Finally, we have the FOMC Statement at 7.00 pm and the Powell Press Conference at 7.30 pm.
June S&P 500
For the second consecutive trading session, the S&P just missed my buy level before rallying 10 Handles into the close. Despite the fact that the S&P is close to all-time highs, internally the market is weak and I do not like the price action. However, if we do sell-off this evening we will probably still see a further rally into the June Expiration on Friday. Ahead of the FOMC Statement, I will now lower my buy level to 4215/4228 with a lower 4204 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will not chase the S&P lower, leaving my 4270/4285 sell level unchanged with the same 4297 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4238. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4261.
I am still long the Euro at 1.2130. I will continue to add to this trade at 1.2080 with the same 1.2055 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.2145 which is just below yesterday’s 1.2147 high print. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a small buyer from 89.60/90.10 with the same 8925 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 90.40.
The boring sideways price action continues in the DAX albeit at near record price levels. I am still flat as I refuse to chase the market higher, leaving my 15480/15550 buy level unchanged with the same 15405 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15595.
The FTSE continues to remain firm ahead of Friday’s Expiration and I am still flat. Just like the DAX above, I do not want to chase the market higher leaving my 7030/7080 buy level unchanged with the same 6995 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7110.
Dow Rolling Contract
My latest 34340 long Dow position worked well with the market trading higher to my 34420 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to rebuy the Dow again at 34220, before we rallied to my 34290 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has now closed lower for seven straight sessions. The Dow has further support from 33850/34030 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 33695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the FOMC Statement, I will leave my 34700/34900 sell level unchanged with the same 35085 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34180. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34590.
It took a while but finally the NASDAQ traded lower to my 14050 T/P level on Monday’s 14100 latest short position and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 14160/14280 where I will again be a seller with a 14355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be an aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 13780/13680 with a lower 13595 ‘Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14105. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13840.
Ahead of this evening’s FOMC Meeting, the Bund traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. I will continue to be a small seller from 172.95/173.45 with the same 173.81 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.65.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Gold continues to struggle after hitting strong resistance at the 1900 level last week. I will now lower my buy level slightly to 1820/1832 with a lower 1809 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1841.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 27.40 buy level before rallying to my revised 27.60 T/P level and I am still flat. Silver has short-term support from 26.45/27.05 where I will again be a buyer with a 25.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 27.35.
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