On 16/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session mixed as Indexes fluctuated between ending positive or negative all afternoon. Overnight, President Joe Biden finally signed the Infrastructure Bill into law, but the White House’s budget proposal remains uncertain. The House of Representatives will likely vote on it this week, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) signalled it is unlikely the chamber will take up the White House’s budget legislation for a vote before December. It was a relatively quiet day otherwise, with investors keeping an eye out for upcoming data on Retail Sales and Manufacturing Production this afternoon. These data points should give an indication on the health of the economic rebound and consumer spending. President Biden also met virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this morning, with many on Wall Street expecting the focus to be on lowering tensions between the two countries. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Austria’s government said it would reintroduce COVID-19 restrictions for unvaccinated individuals in an attempt to stem a resurgence in infections. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the government does not see the need to reimpose coronavirus restrictions but it is closely watching the rise in European infections. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said stable prices would be better served by increasing stimulus when inflation is below target and removing it when above. In Asia, Japan’s preliminary third-quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) data was below expectations, falling versus the second quarter and boosting stimulus expectations. China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures for October were stronger than expected, signalling economic output is recovering from the recent slide. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said there is an ongoing need for powerful monetary stimulus as inflation is nowhere near the central bank’s 2% target. The Bank of Korea said Governor Lee Ju-yeol will hold a meeting with economists later this week to discuss recent economic trends and the 2022 outlook. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold fell 0.14% on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 25 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 825 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed unchanged at a price of 4682.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12 points lower for a 0.04% loss at a price of 36,087.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.07% lower at a price of 16,189.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.2% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.56% higher at a price of 29,776.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 06% lower at $1.1365.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3411.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $114.07.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at -0.23%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher 0.96%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points higher at 1.61%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.07% higher at $79.87 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.14% lower at $1,862.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Unemployment and Average Earnings at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone GDP and Employment Change at 1000 am. Next, we have U.S. Retail Sales and the Import/Export Price Index at 1.30 pm. At 2.15 pm we have Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production. Finally, we have Wholesale Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
The S&P found more resistance at the 4700 area, hitting a high of 4697 before falling 30 Handles as the market again missed my 4664 T/P level by a few handles before rallying into the close. I am still short from last Friday at 4674 with a now higher 4669 T/P level. I will leave my stop unchanged at a ‘’Closing Price’’ of 4687. I will now move my buy level higher to 4638/4653 with a now higher 4627 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4664.
The Euro got hit hard again yesterday, trading to a new low for 2021 at 1.1354. This move lower saw my 1.1400 buy level triggered. As emailed to my Platinum Members, I will add to this trade at 1.1350 with a now lower 1.1295 stop. The Euro is severely oversold after falling over 350 points since the end of October. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1440.
December Dollar Index
Despite the Dollar trading severely overbought, after yesterday’s 0.5% rise and is now trading at it’s highest level since June 2020. This move higher saw my 9545 stop hit on my 94.85 short position and I am now flat. The Dollar has further resistance from 96.00/96.50 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 97.05 wider stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 95.65.
I was lucky yesterday as the DAX traded lower to my 16065 T/P level on my latest 16090 short position and I am still flat. The DAX has strong resistance from 16220/16290 where I will again be a seller with a 16365 stop. I still do not want to be long the market at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16170.
The FTSE continues to trade heavy and I am still flat. I will not chase the market lower, leaving my 7385/7440 sell level unchanged with the same 7461 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7355.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow again fell shy of my buy level before having a small rally into the close and I am still flat. It is interesting to see that Junk Bonds are under pressure. This normally leads to a sell-off in stocks but with the S&P making a new Monthly High for 12 consecutive months, there is no guarantee of a sell-off. Last week’s 2% sell-off in American Indexes was met with the Fed’s Balance Sheet expanding $88bn and that was the end of that sell-off. QE has been happening since Greenspan was Fed Chairman back in 2003 in much smaller amounts before increasing the amounts of QE following any small sell-off in the market. Of course, the Fed is now trapped, knowing that tapering and a rise in Interest Rates will probably cause a crash. Remember in Q4, 2018 the Fed hiked Rates three times and the Dow fell 20% before further QE was announced on December 26 that year leading to huge gains for the Dow in 2019. Today, I will leave my 35800/35950 buy level unchanged with the same 35675 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the market at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 36070.
My NASDAQ plan finally paid off as the NDX sold off in the afternoon to my 16130 T/P level on Friday’s 16165 average short position and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 16295/16395 where I will again be a seller with a 16505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have support from 15880/15980 where I will be a strong buyer with a 15775 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16235 If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 16050.
The Bund sold off to my 173.80 T/P level on my 171.05 average short position from Friday and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 170.90/171.40 with a 171.81 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 170.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1825/1840 with the same 1813 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1847.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver missed my 24.80 buy level before having a small rally. Ahead of U.S Retail Sales, I will now lower my buy level to 2390/24.50 with a tight 23.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 24.85.
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