U.S. Equity Markets rose to end the week, led by the NASDAQ which closed higher by 2.32%. This move higher helped the VIX to close lower by 19% at 18.81. Retail sales for April were unchanged on a month-over-month basis compared to the anticipated 1% gain, weakening the case for hyperinflation and growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said imbalances in the supply and demand for labour and goods are sending prices higher, raising inflation worries. Meanwhile, the U.S. Centre for Disease Control and Prevention updated its COVID-19 guidance, adding that vaccinated individuals no longer need to wear masks. European Markets also closed higher. European Central bank Governing Council Member Yannis Stournaras said inflation is not a concern and that a change in the current policy is not needed. ECB Governing Council Member Pablo Hernandez de Cos added that the central bank should adopt the Federal Reserve’s 2% sustained inflation target. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that the drivers pushing inflation higher would not last in the long term. All of this commentary points to easy-money policies remaining in place. Like the Federal Reserve, central banks in Europe are focused on recovering jobs and ensuring a lasting economic recovery. The European Union’s COVID-19 vaccinations increased to 186.6 million yesterday, with a daily average of 3.4 million doses administered over last week. In Asia, China’s State Council said it needs to boost coordination of monetary policy with other measures to reduce the volatility of commodity prices and bolster economic growth. This helped to ease investor concerns that rising costs will erode corporate profits. More importantly, technology stocks rebounded after dropping earlier in the week. Money managers and traders worried that rising inflation could cause a tightening of global central bank policies. China’s steps to control commodity prices could change the conversation. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank will make large exchange-traded fund purchases in necessary situations. Taiwanese Premier Su Tseng-chang said that even with the recent rise in COVID-19 cases, there was no need to raise the country’s alert level. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.38% higher as Colonial eased some fears of a major fuel shortage in the East Coast while Bitcoin rose 3.79% on Dollar weakness.
To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 50 points on Friday and is now ahead by 894 points for May having closed April with a gain of 1244 points, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.49% higher at a price of 4173.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 360 points higher for a 1.06% gain at a price of 34,382.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.17% higher at a price of 13,393.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 2.32% higher at a price of 28,084.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower
The Euro closed 0.6% higher at $1.2148.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.4096
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $109.32.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.12%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 0.86%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.63%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.38% higher at $65.19 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.88% higher at $1,839.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have the New York Empire Manufacturing Index, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Clarida at 3.05 pm.
June S&P 500
Last week, was one of the most volatile weeks of the year so far as shown by the huge movements in the VIX. The Dow Industrials registered an outside-down week, a new all-time high last Monday, a lower weekly low than the previous week and a lower close. Meanwhile, despite the two-day rally in the S&P which saw the S&P rally a huge 150 Handles off Thursday morning’s low print, the S&P closed at its lowest weekly close in five weeks. The NASDAQ had its lowest close in seven weeks, erasing April’s entire advance. There is no doubt the Fed again bought the market last Thursday/Friday to cover up the awful weak economic data witnessed over the last 10 days. Initially, my S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 4135 sell level before selling off to my 4125 revised T/P level after Retail Sales were released. Subsequently I sold the S&P again at a price of 4156 before getting stopped out of this position on the close at 4171 and I am still flat. The S&P has support from 4125/4140 where I will be a small buyer with a 4112 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have strong resistance from 4190/4205 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 4217 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4154. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4178.
The Euro surged after U.S Retail Sales were released as my buy level never came close to being executed. The Euro has strong resistance from 1.2190/1.2240 where I will be a seller with a 1.2275 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 1.2035/1.2085 with a higher 1.1995 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1.2150. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2120.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar traded lower to my 90.30 buy level. I will add to this trade at 89.90 while leaving my 89.65 stop unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 90.55 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The DAX build value above 15300 as the buy the dip saw strong buying off Thursday’s 14805 low print. The DAX has resistance from 15550/15630 where I will be a small seller with a 15705 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15495.
The FTSE saw strong buying on Friday and I am still flat. We have short-term support from 6935/6985 where I will be a small buyer with a 6895 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7020.
Dow Rolling Contract
As I was already short the S&P, I waited to sell the Dow which I did near the close at a price of 34380. I will add to this trade at 34550 while raising my stop to a 34675 ‘’Closing Price’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 34250 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
I am still flat as the NASDAQ surged over 2% on Friday. We have resistance from 13460/13540 where I will again be a seller with a tight 13625 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 13390.
No Change. I am still long from last week at 169.30 with the same 169.45 T/P level. I will also leave my 168.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Gold Rolling Contract
I will now raise my buy level to 1793/1807 with a higher 1784 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1814.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Silver again traded sideways/higher for most of Friday. I will now raise my buy level to 26.10/26.70 with a higher 25.85 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 27.05.
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