On 17/08/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.

U.S. Equity Markets reversed earlier losses, closing the day higher, led by the Dow and S&P with both Indexes closing at new all-time highs. Markets opened lower before recovering throughout the day In the morning, Federal Reserve speakers were in focus. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he would like to see several more months of strong job gains before the central bank begins pulling back on bond purchases. There were also some headlines on asset purchase tapering, with reports suggesting that the central bank could completely wind down its asset purchases by the middle of next year. In terms of economic data, the New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Index fell sharply in August, missing estimates, on longer delivery times and lower employment. However, survey respondents remained optimistic on the demand outlook. European Markets closed lower for the first time in two weeks. Germany’s Economic Ministry said that the jump in inflation happening in the country was mostly temporary, with inflation expected to fall to normal levels at the start of next year. The U.K.’s Recruitment and Employment Confederation said that job postings were ramping up, with more businesses looking to hire workers as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. In Asia, China’s year-to-date Industrial Production and Retail Sales growth data through July were weaker than expected, as supply-chain bottlenecks weighed on output. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said the government will roll out measures to ensure a stable employment rebound, while the economy can maintain a steady recovery. Japan’s preliminary second-quarter gross domestic product growth surpassed expectations, rising versus the first quarter, boosted by business and government spending. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.68% on global growth concerns as the world continues to deal with COVID-19’s Delta variant, while Gold rose 0.64% on little news

To mark my 2375th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 222 points yesterday and is now ahead by 850 points for August, having closed July with a gain of 996 points. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.26% higher at a price of 4479.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 110 points higher for a 0.31% gain at a price of 35,625.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.03% higher at a price of 15,140.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.36% lower at a price of 27,424.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.

The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1770.

The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.3820.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $109.29.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.48%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.57%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points lower at 1.25%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.68% lower at $67.29 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.64% higher at $1,787.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK Jobless Claims which fell 7.4K versus last month’s -115K, while the Unemployment Rate was lower at 4.7%. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone GDP, Construction Output and Employment Change. This is followed by U.S. Retail Sales at 1.30 pm and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell is speaking at 6.30 pm.

September S&P 500

The S&P traded to an afternoon low of 4433 before turning around and rally 40 Handles into the close. This initial move lower saw my 4444 T/P level filled on last Thursday’s 4450 average short position and I am still flat. The buy the dip is relentless as the S&P closed at a new all-time high. The Small Cap stock Indexes and Secondary Indexes, such as the Russell 2000 and Value Line Composite Index, did not participate in yesterday’s turnaround as both Indexes closed the session lower. The NYSE Advance/Decline ratio again closed negative. This is the third consecutive session of a new all-time high accompanied by negative breadth. A similar pattern attended the July 2007 stock market high when the NYSE A/D ratio was negative on July 16, 2007, July 17, 2007 and July 18 2007. The Dow made a new all-time high on July 16, another new all-time high on July 17, before declining 11% in just 22 days to mid-August 2007. Meanwhile, the McClellan Oscillator closed with a negative reading of -31 which is more evidence of an unhealthy market. The S&P has support from 4420/4435 where I will be a buyer with a 4409 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 4480/4495 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 4511 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4446. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4468.

EUR/USD

I am still flat and today, I will lower my by level to 1.1690/1.1730 with a lower 1.1645 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1765.

September Dollar Index

No Change. I am still a small seller from 93.00/93.40 with the same 93.81 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.70.

September DAX

The DAX again fell shy of my sell range yesterday and I am still flat. The DAX is now trading 200 points lower off Friday’s 16020 all-time high. The DAX has support from 15620/15710 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 15555 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15760.

September FTSE

The FTSE again just missed my 7175 initial sell level yesterday, before falling 100 points to sit at 7060 this morning. The FTSE has support from 6940/6990 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 6895 stop. The FTSE has resistance from 7130/7180 and I will lower my sell level to this range  with a tight 7215 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7030. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7100.

Dow Rolling Contract

My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 35250 buy level (low 35230) before aggressive buying drove the market 400 points higher into the close. This move higher saw my 35362 revised T/P level filled and I am still flat. This morning, the Dow is trading 225 points lower from last night’s close at 35400. The Dow has strong resistance from 35850/36150 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 36325 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have short-term support from 35100/35250 where I will again be a buyer with a 34985 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35600. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35360.

September NASDAQ

My NASDAQ plan also worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 14955 average long position, before rallying to my 15005 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has support from 14940/15010 where I will again be a buyer with a 14865 ‘’Closing Stop’’.  I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15060.

September BUND

No Change. I am still a small seller from 177.35/177.85 with the same 178.21 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 177.05.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold has now rallied over $100 of last Monday’s ‘’Flash Crash’’ and I am still flat. Gold has strong resistance from 1812/1825 and I will now raise my sell level to this area with a higher 1837 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1804.

Silver Rolling Contract

I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 22.80/23.40 with a higher 22.35 stop. If  I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.70

Your Platinum Subscription intraday updates will appear here once they are published.

Hi Everyone

Much weaker than expected Retail Sales has the US Indexes opening lower
The NASDAQ hit my buy level of 14995 and I have now exited this long position here at 15032 as I have lower buy levels in the Dow and S&P
Remember a break and close below 14975 is bearish
Kind Regards
Bryan
Update 2

Hi Everyone

There is no doubt  the U.S. Economy is slowing dramatically as the Stimulus Cheques expire
As a result the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 4427 average long position. We are bouncing as I send this email and I have now exited this long position here at 4432 and I am now flat.
The Dow got hit hard, hitting a low of 35120. This move lower saw my 35240 buy level get hit. We have had a good month so far which I want to protect and I have now exited this long position here at 35255
Earlier the Euro hit my buy range and I am now long at 1.1720 with a now lower 1.1740 T/P level
Kind Regards
Bryan
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