On 17/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session higher, led by the NASDAQ 100 which ended Tuesday with a gain of 0.75%. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the central bank remains patient regarding the inflation outlook, but won’t hesitate to act if necessary. In terms of economic data, Retail Sales for October rose 1.7%, higher than the expectation for a 1.4% increase and the prior month’s upwardly revised 0.8% gain. This was the strongest gain for Retail Sales since March. The data points to a strengthening domestic economy. Meanwhile, the NAHB’s Housing Market Index rose for the fourth straight month, showing that homebuilders remain extremely optimistic on housing demand in the near future. Strong earnings were also a tailwind for markets, with Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) posting better-than-expected reports. Within the S&P 500, six of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed higher. Euro-Zone preliminary third-quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) data was in line with expectations, as consumer spending strength offset manufacturing delays. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said ensuring favorable financing conditions are necessary to support the economic recovery. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the main economic measure for raising rates has now been cleared, implying a rate hike at the central bank’s next policy meeting. In Asia, The White House and Zhongnanhai said Tuesday Morning’s virtual meeting between President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping worked to reduce tensions between the two countries. People’s Bank of China reserve requirement ratio cut expectations eased after the central bank left the one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged. Japan reported its lowest daily COVID-19 infection total in 18 months, as its vaccination rate exceeded 75%, boosting the economic outlook. Global growth optimism increased on the heels of China’s weekend economic data and regional U.S. manufacturing numbers demonstrating factory employment increases. Elsewhere, Gold declined 080% on Dollar strength, while Bitcoin fell 7% as Chinese officials said the country would continue to crack down on bitcoin mining.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 200 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 625 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.39% higher at a price of 4700.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points higher for a 0.15% gain at a price of 36,142.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.75% higher at a price of 16,309.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.11% higher at a price of 29,808.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.1320.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.3420.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7%, closing at $114.83.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.24%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher 1.00%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points higher at 1.64%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.14% lower at $79.81 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.80% lower at $1,849.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index at 7.00 am. This is followed by the EU Financial Stability Report at 9.00 am and Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits at 1.30 pm. Finally, this afternoon we have speeches from Fed Members Williams, Bowman, Daly and Waller at 2.10 pm, 4.00 pm, 5.40 pm and 5.45 pm respectively.
December S&P 500
It was a frustrating trading session yesterday as the S&P just missed my 4669 T/P level by two Handles before rallying to a high of 4709. Subsequently, we sold off 15 Handles into the close and in the process stopped me out of my 4674 short position at 4694 and I am now flat. Yesterday’s sharp rally came on further negative divergence. Nobody expects anything but for this rally to continue into year-end despite increasing negative divergences across all the technical signals that I follow. One could argue that we have a similar set-up to February 2020 before the market crashed 35% after COVID -19 hit. Bitcoin has now fallen over $7000 since hitting a new high above $67000 last week, an indication of how quickly sentiment can change. Yesterday’s stronger than expected U.S. Retail Sales and PCE confirm how far behind the curve the Fed is. These numbers show the Fed should not only be tapering but also hiking Interest Rates instead of doubling down on all their inflation transitory BS. Treasury Secretary Yellen who has got the inflation picture wrong all year has now said inflation will not fall until mid- 2022. Today, I will be a seller on any further rally to 4710/4725 with a 4741 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 4638/4653 buy level unchanged with the same 4627 ‘’Closing Stop’’ If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4698. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4666.
Normally when we the Dollar strengthen, Equity Markets get hit but not this time as the Euro made a new low for the year at 1.1315 I added to my 1.1400 long position at 1.1350 for a now 1.1375 average long position. With the Euro severely oversold, I will add to this trade again at 1.1280 with a now lower 1.1235 stop. I do not normally adopt this strategy but with sentiment to the Dollar near all-time highs I have decided to be aggressive with my bullish Euro stance. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1410 on this position.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat. As I am long the Euro I will now raise my Dollar sell level to 96.20/96.70 with a higher 97.15 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 95.85.
The weaker Euro saw the DAX hit new all-time highs for the year. This move higher saw my 16240 sell level triggered. I will now add to this position at 16320 with a now higher 16385 stop. I will also raise my T/P level to 16180.
The FTSE continues to trade heavy and has not participated in the latest rally over the past week. As I have enough short positions on board I will not chase the FTSE lower , leaving my 7385/7435 sell level unchanged with a now higher 7471 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7355.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow made a high of 36317 yesterday afternoon, before falling 200 points into the close. I am still flat as I continue to be a buyer from 35800/35950 with the same 35675 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 36070.
The NDX was the strongest of the U.S Indexes yesterday, closing near the high of the day after a gain of 0.75%. This latest move higher has me short at 16310. I will raise my T/P level on this position to 16250 while lowering my stop to a ‘’Closing Price’’ of 16405.
I am still flat the Bund as the market fell shy of yesterday’s sell range. I will now raise my sell level to 171.10/171.60 with a higher 172.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 170.80.
Gold Rolling Contract
The stronger Dollar finally saw some weakness in Gold over the past 24 hours. I am still flat and I will now lower my buy level to 1812/1827 with a 1799 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1835.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 23.90/24.50 with the same 23.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 24.85.
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