U.S. Equity Markets fell to start the week, finishing the day lower, led by the NASDAQ which finished yesterday’s session with a loss of 0.60%. This move lower saw the VIX close 5% higher. Inflation was in focus once again. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said that Fed policy would remain extremely accommodative until the economy makes “substantial progress” in the labour market. Bostic added that the U.S. economy was still 8 million jobs short of its goal. This followed similar commentary from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida last week. The concern here is that the Fed is more focused on the labour market, and will let inflation overheat while it focuses on bringing those jobs back. Bostic also said that inflation was a healthy sign of economic growth, while Clarida said the Fed will act if inflation proves to not be transitory. In terms of economic data, homebuilder optimism held steady this month, as strong home demand offset concerns of rising costs. European Markets again closed lower despite more upbeat news. European Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager said it is too soon to consider a second regional recovery fund, adding the goal is an economic rebound, not spend the most money. Germany’s COVID-19 infection rate continues to fall, remaining below key thresholds that could see the government of Europe’s largest economy ease social-distancing restrictions. Iran’s government is said to be preparing to resume oil production at pre-sanction levels of 4 million barrels per day in anticipation of striking a nuclear accord deal with the U.S. In Asia, China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales data for April were weaker than expected, falling versus March, in a sign economic activity might be slowing. Japan’s producer price index data for April were stronger than expected, rising versus March, as raw material prices climbed. China’s National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui said rising commodity prices may be hurting companies selling to consumers, implying potential price controls. In an effort to try and contain a recent resurgence in coronavirus infections, Taiwan’s government urged individuals to limit social gatherings and work from home. Elsewhere, Bitcoin plummeted 13% after Tesla CEO Elon Musk sparked speculation that the company may exit its bitcoin position, while Gold jumped 1.56% on continued easy money policies.
To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 325 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1219 points for May having closed April with a gain of 1244 points, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.25% lower at a price of 4162.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points lower for a 0.16% loss at a price of 34,327.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.60% lower at a price of 13,312.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.92% lower at a price of 27,824.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.2158.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.4145.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $109.21.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.11%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.87%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.65%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.42% higher at $66.15 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.56% higher at $1,865.30 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Average Earnings and Unemployment at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone Trade Balance, GDP and Unemployment at 10.00 am. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits, Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 3.00 pm.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 4139 buy level before rallying to my 4154 T/P level and I am now flat. The 4128/4145 support area is key as break and close below here will see prices accelerate to the downside. Today I will be a buyer in this area with a 4115 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I am not going to chase the S&P lower and I will leave my 4190/4205 sell level unchanged with the same 4217 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4157. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4180.
The Euro traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 1.2205/1.2245 with a 1.2278 stop. Meanwhile, I will leave my 1.2035/1.2085 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1995 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1.2165. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2120.
June Dollar Index
I am still long at 90.30 with the same 90.55 T/P level. I will leave my stop unchanged at 89.65 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
I am still flat and today I will continue to be a small seller on any further rally to 15580/15640 with the same 15705 stop. Given how overbought the DAX is trading I do not want to be long the market at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15535.
My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 6975 buy level before rallying to my 7020 T/P level and I am still flat. As long as the FTSE does not break and close below 6900, the market is a buy on dips. Today, I will be a buyer from 6945/6995 with a 6895 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7030.
Dow Rolling Contract
Having hit an overnight high at 34445, the Dow turned lower by hitting my 34250 T/P level on my latest 34380 short position from Friday and I am still flat. The Dow needs to break the key support from 33950/34100 for me to get more aggressive for a downside move Today, I will be a buyer in this area with a 33825 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has resistance from 34620/34780 where I will be a small seller with a 34875 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34240 If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34500.
The NASDAQ hit a low of 13181 before rallying 140 points into the close. Today, I will be a buyer from 13130/13230 with a 12995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I am not going to chase the price of the market lower, leaving my 13460/13540 sell level unchanged with the same 13625 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13305. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 13395.
I am still long the Bund at 169.30. I will now lower my T/P level to 169.35 while leaving my 168.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Thankfully we had no sell level in either Gold or Silver yesterday with both markets surging. Gold is now trading at 1866. I will now raise my buy level to 1815/1827 with a higher 1799 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1836.
Silver Rolling Contract
I will now raise my buy level in silver to 27.10/27.70 as I look for the February high of $30 to be tested over the coming days. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 28.35.
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