Trader Noble Market Commentary 18/11/2021

On 18/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.

U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session lower after a volatile trading day in which the VIX closed 5% higher. The Dow led the major Indexes lower closing with a loss of 0.58%. Housing market economic data was mixed, with Housing Starts missing estimates and Building Permits coming in above expectations. Still, both metrics are elevated on a historical basis, proving the housing market’s ongoing strength. Earnings continued to come in strong, with solid reports from both Target (TGT) and Lowe’s (LOW). The U.S.-China relationship remained in focus after this week’s call between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report saying that the U.S. should scale back investment in China over security concerns. The debt ceiling also made headlines, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying she is confident that a deal can be reached by the new deadline of December 15. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets again closed higher. Britain’s Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) data for October rose to the highest level in 10 years, likely indicating the Bank of England will raise rates at its next meeting. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) said it is doubling the amount of cash it will accept as collateral to lend sovereign debt, in an attempt to boost bond liquidity. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said the central bank will keep its policy stance in place, adding the current “uncomfortable” levels of inflation are temporary. In Asia, Japan’s export figures for October were weaker than anticipated, hitting the lowest level since February, as auto parts availability weighed on car shipments abroad. The People’s Bank of China removed almost $8 billion worth of funds from the financial system in an attempt to keep liquidity stable. The Japanese yen fell to the lowest level since 2017 versus the dollar, based on speculation the government’s stimulus plans may increase to support growth. South Korean inflation concerns rose on worries strengthening U.S. economic data would boost the dollar and weigh on the won. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2.86% after President Joe Biden reportedly asked China to release crude reserves to lower oil prices, while Gold rose 0.73% on Dollar weakness.

To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 35 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 660 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.26% lower at a price of 4689.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 211 points lower for a 0.58% loss at a price of 35,931.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.01% lower at a price of 16,308.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.40% lower at a price of 29,688.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.

The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.1328.

The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.3491.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.5%, closing at $11421.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.25%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 0.96%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed six basis points lower at 1.58%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.86% lower at $77.53 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.73% higher at $1,866.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front the ECB’s Panetta speaks at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 4.00 pm.

December S&P 500

Despite negative Breadth across the Board, the S&P only closed with a loss of 0.26%, helped by the NDX closing unchanged. However, traders are nervous after a number of analysts came out over the past few days commenting on the overvaluation of the stock market. I am still flat the S&P and I will now lower my sell level to 4698/4715 with a wider 4731 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the S&P is still on a dip lower to 4638/4653 with the same 4627 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4689. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4664.

EUR/USD

The Euro traded lower to my third buy level at 1.1280 for a now 1.1330 average long position. Yesterday’s low saw the Daily Sentiment Index decline to just 9% bulls, the lowest level since Feb 18, 2020. Given the oversold backdrop I am happy to stay long the Euro with a T/P level at 1.1380 Meanwhile, I will leave my 1.1235 stop unchanged.

December Dollar Index

My Dollar plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 96.20 sell level before selling off to my 95.85 T/P level and I am now flat. We may have hit at least a short-term top at yesterday’s 96.24 high print. As a result, I will be a seller from 95.95/96.45 with a 96.91 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 95.65.

December DAX

No Change. I am still short at 16240 with the same 16180 T/P level. I will continue to add to this trade on any move higher to 16320 while leaving my 16385 stop unchanged.

December FTSE

Talk of higher Interest Rates by the Bank of England have stopped the FTSE’s rally over the past week. I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 7330/7380 with a 7435 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7298.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow declined twice the amount of the S&P in yesterday’s session as it looks more and more likely that this month’s 36565 high print may be one of importance A break and close below 35400 will confirm this scenario. However, we are still in the seasonally strong period of the year ahead of Thanksgiving next Thursday. The sell-off in the Dow yesterday saw the market hit my 35910 buy level. I will add to this trade at 35700 with a now lower 35990 T/P level. I will now lower my stop to a ‘’Closing Price’’ of 35575 and if any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

December NASDAQ

I am still short at a price of 16310 with the same 16250 T/P level. I will also leave my 16405 ‘’Closing Price’’ stop unchanged.

December BUND

The Bund had a small rally yesterday and I am still flat. The rally is no surprise given the doubling down of the transitory narrative from ECB Officials. Today, I will raise my sell level to 171.25/171.75 with a 172.15 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 170.95.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold rallied after the Euro bounced 60 points of its morning low. I am still flat with a now higher buy range of 1832/1847 with a 1819 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at  1854.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change. My only interest in buying Silver is still on a dip lower to 23.90/24.50 with the same 23.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 24.80.

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Hi  Everyone