On 19/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets declined on rising inflation fears and lower consumer sentiment, ending Friday’s session lower, led by the Dow which closed with a loss of 0.86%. Consumer Sentiment fell drastically in early July, with one-year inflation expectations hitting a 13-year high. Meanwhile, Retail Sales posted a surprise rise in June thanks to demand for restaurants and clothing stores. Energy stocks were largely down due to ongoing uncertainty over the oil production disagreement between OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Investors are worried the agreement to control supply could fall apart. That could result in member countries unloading inventory at will, over-supplying the market. European Markets closed lower. U.S. President Joe Biden said the White House COVID-19 team was working on when to lift restrictions on visitors from Europe. This has been a complaint of European Union Member States as they are willing to let Americans travel to their countries. These comments came on the heels of a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. European vehicle sales increased by 13% in June, marking the fourth-straight month of gains. This was another sign of the industry’s ongoing rebound as consumer demand recovers. Supporting this was commentary from the organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (“OPEC”). Its monthly oil report projected global oil demand would surpass 100 million barrels per day in the second half of 2022. In Asia, The Bank of Japan opted to maintain its current monetary policy. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the outlook remained uncertain, and that it wouldn’t hesitate to offer additional economic support. China’s state-run media outlets also made dovish comments. They talked up the potential for the central bank to further ease monetary policy, adding it would use multiple tools to ensure ample liquidity. Conversely, the Bank of Korea struck a different tone Governor Lee Ju-yeol said the central bank could hike interest rates later this year, as the country’s economy continues to recover. He said the rebound necessitates the removal of support measures put in place to boost demand. Elsewhere, Gold fell 0.97% declined on slight improvements to the dollar, while Bitcoin rose 0.50% on reports that Bank of America approved Bitcoin futures trading for some clients.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 95 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1081 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.76% lower at a price of 4327.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points lower for a 0.86% loss at a price of 34,687.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.77% lower at a price of 14,681.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.25% lower at a price of 27,652.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1794.
The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at 1.3752.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $109.89.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.36%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 0.63%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.29%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.22% lower at $72.83 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.97% lower at $1,810.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Construction Output at 10.00 am. The only other data of note is U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm.
September S&P 500
The S&P just missed my 4373 initial sell level with a 4367 high print before selling off to an overnight low so far at 4296.50. As it stands both the Dow and S&P made a buying climax last week, with new weekly highs but lower weekly closes. For the S&P, the new weekly high was also a new all-time high. Just before Friday’s close I emailed my Platinum Members to cancel any buy level in the S&P and I am still flat. Value below 4308 is bearish and tells us to look to set up shorts for a move lower to 4263 and then 4225/4245 where I will look to exit any short positions and setup longs. I will be an aggressive buy level in this area with a 4209 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 4322/4337 where I will be a small seller with a 4349 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4263. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4312.
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1.1710/1.1750 with the same 1.1685 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1780.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller from 9310/93.50 with the same 93.75 stop. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.85
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 15470 buy level before rallying to my 15525 T/P level and I am still flat. The DAX has strong support from 15210/15280 where I will again be a buyer with a 15155 tight stop. Remember, a break and close below 15300 is bearish. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15325.
My FTSE plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 6910 buy level before rallying to my 6940 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further sip lower to 6780/6825 with a 6745 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6855.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow tested its May 10 all-time high of 35093 with a 35091 high shortly after the Cash Markets opened on Friday. The market opened with a strong Advance/Decline Ratio of 3.80-to-1, but within 45 minutes, Breadth had turned negative and stayed that way throughout the rest of session. This move lower saw my 34700 buy level hit before emailing my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 34710 and I am still flat. This morning, the Dow is trading lower at 34500. We have short-term support from 34230/34380 where I will again be a buyer with a 34125 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has strong support from 33900/34050 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 33785 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34505. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 34230.
Frustratingly, the NASDAQ missed my 14870 initial sell level with a 14867 high print before selling off to an overnight low of 14611. I am still flat and today I will continue to be a buyer from 14480/14560 with the same 14395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has resistance from 14750/14830 where I will be a small seller with a 14905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15625. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14695.
This morning the Bund opened in my sell range from Friday and I am now short in small size at 175.20. I will add to this trade at 175.70 while leaving my 176.05 stop unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 175.90 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold. As I am now long Silver, I will lower my buy level to 1765/1780 with a lower 1757 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1788.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 25.70 buy level. I will add to this trade at 25.10 while leaving my 24.75 stop unchanged. I will also lower my T/P level to 25.80 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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