On 19/11/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday’s session mixed as the Dow closed lower while the NDX closed at a new all-time high following a gain of 1.07%. 268,000 individuals filed Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending November 13, according to the U.S. Department of Labour. This was below the prior week’s upwardly revised 269,000 figure, but above Wall Street’s estimate of 260,000. The number also marked a new low since the COVID-19 pandemic began. In other economic data, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rose and beat estimates. It now sits close to the highest level in 48 years, set in June. New York Fed President John Williams noted that there has been a pickup in both underlying inflation and inflation expectations. However, he reiterated the central bank’s stance that inflation will return to normal levels in the near future. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. Euro-Zone new car registration data for October fell 30.3%, declining for the fourth straight month, as automakers are striking a more optimistic tone on semiconductor availability. European Central Bank (“ECB”) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the inflation outlook aligns with current policy, and pandemic asset purchases should end in March. ECB data showed investments for the first nine months of the year into Euro-Area funds were $897 million, the highest level since 2014. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also warned that the country was undergoing a fourth wave of COVID-19 cases, while also announcing new restrictions for unvaccinated citizens. In Asia, Japan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Toshimitsu Mogi said the government’s stimulus plans could exceed $260 billion. The People’s Bank of China removed another $7.8 billion worth of funds from the financial system, saying it wanted to keep liquidity relatively stable. Bank of Korea interest rate hike speculation increased ahead of next week’s meeting, as third-quarter household income rose by a record 8%. Chinese technology stocks fell on disappointing quarterly results from Baidu (BIDU) and Bilibili (BILI). The pain for Chinese tech stocks continued after Alibaba’s (BABA) report this morning. Elsewhere Oil closed 1.07% higher despite headlines that major economies were looking into releasing crude from their reserves, while Bitcoin fell 4% as lawmakers tried to work out how to enforce the new crypto reporting law in the Infrastructure Bill.
To mark my 2425th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 130 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 790 points for November, after ending October with a gain of 1028 points, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.34% higher at a price of 4704.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 60 points lower for a 0.17% loss at a price of 35,870.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.07% higher at a price of 16,482.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.30% lower at a price of 29,598.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1368.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.3498.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $114.30.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.27%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at 0.93%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.59%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.07% higher at $78.35 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.45% lower at $1,859.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front at 7.00 am we have German PPI and U.K. GFK Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales and Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement. At 8.30 am we have another speech from ECB President Lagarde, followed by the Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am. Finally, we have speeches this afternoon from Fed Members Waller and Clarida at 3.45 pm and 5.15 pm respectively.
December S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 4700 sell level before falling over 30 Handles, enabling me to cover this position at my 4689 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P reversed all of its earlier losses, closing at 4700 as yet again if you do not take your gain on any short-position it will evaporate. It was interesting to see Mohamed EL-Elrian (Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz saying yesterday that the Fed could be heading towards an historic monetary policy mistake by reacting too slowly to rising inflationary pressures. The S&P has resistance from 4712/4727 where I will again be a seller with a 4741 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 4650/4665 with a higher 4639 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4703. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4675.
Yet again the DSI has proved to be such a reliable indicator as the Euro’s rally gathered momentum, closing at 1.1370, enabling me to cover my very long 1.1330 position at 1.1355 and I am now flat. The Euro has support from 1.1270/1.1320 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.1235 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1370.
December Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller from 95.90/96.40 with the same 96.91 wider stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 95.60
After the DAX fell shy of my 16180 T/P level by 7 points, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short-position at 16215 and I am now flat. The DAX has further resistance from 16310/16380 where I will again be a seller with a 16465 stop. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16265.
The FTSE continues to trade heavy and I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase the market lower, thus leaving my 7330/7380 sell level unchanged with the same 7435 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7300.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded in a wide range yesterday, after hitting and intra-day high of 36018, allowing me to cover my 35910 long position at 35990, before the market fell over 350 points. Just like the S&P we spent the rest of the session trying to recover these losses, closing 60 points lower at 35,870 and I am still flat. The Dow has strong support from 35580/35730 where I will be a buyer with a 35425 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 35850.
My latest 16310 short position did not work well as I was stopped out of this trade at 16420 and I am now flat. The NDX closed at a new all-time high, thanks to the surge in Apple Shares as the technology sector gets even more overbought. The NDX has further resistance from 16590/16690 where I will again be a seller with a 16805 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 16530.
Late in the session, the Bund traded higher to my 171.32 sell level. I will add to this trade at 171.82 while leaving my stop unchanged at 172.15. I will now raise my T/P level on this short position to 171.05.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as I do not trust this breakout in Gold. I will continue to be a small buyer on any further dip lower to 1825/1840 with a 1813 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1847.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 23.90/24.50 with the same 23.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 24.80.
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