On 20/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets fell on COVID-19 Delta variant fears, led by the Dow which ended yesterday’s session with a loss of 2.09%, leading to a VIX which rose over 22%. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy warned that many cities are likely to reimpose mask mandates, as daily COVID-19 cases hit the highest level since May. White House officials expressed concern about the slowing rate of coronavirus vaccinations, fuelling investors’ worries about a diminished growth outlook. This drove yesterday’s sell-off. In terms of economic data, the NAHB Housing Market Index fell and missed estimates, but remained near all-time highs. This showed that homebuilders remain optimistic about the housing market. Aside from COVID-19 developments, the big catalyst this week will be more corporate earnings, with reports from Big Tech companies. European Markets closed lower. Again, the main story here was the Delta variant. In other headlines, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will introduce a new monetary policy framework at this week’s meeting, in order to provide continued support for the regional economy. Germany’s Bundesbank said it expects economic output to reach pre-COVID-19 levels in the third quarter, as supply bottlenecks improve and the services sector recovers. OPEC and its allies resolved an oil output dispute, agreeing to increase supply beginning in August. In Asia, China’s economic planner said the government in Beijing will continue to sell more of its commodity stockpiles in an attempt to ease prices. Japanese auto and electronics makers came under pressure as recent yen strength and slowing global growth concerns weighed on the demand outlook. South Korea reported more than 1,200 new coronavirus infections on Monday, the 13th straight day above 1,000, stoking speculation the government will broaden social-distancing restrictions. Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Centre told airlines it plans to strengthen coronavirus quarantine and testing measures for flight crews, in an attempt to limit potential infections. Elsewhere, Oil fell 7.35% as OPEC agreed to raise production by 400,000 barrels per day every month until September 2022, while Bitcoin fell 4% on little news.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 207 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1288 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.59% lower at a price of 4258.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 725 points lower for a 2.09% loss at a price of 33,962.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.90% lower at a price of 14,549.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.1% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.96% lower at a price of 27,388.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1785.
The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at 1.3681.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3%, closing at $109.52.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at -0.39%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed eight basis points lower at 0.55%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed nine basis points lower at 1.20%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 7.35% lower at $67.47 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.01% lower at $1,808.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German PPI which came in as expected at +1.3%. At 9.00 am we have the ECB Bank Lending Survey and Current Account. This is followed by U.S Housing Starts and Building Permits at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have earnings from both Netflix and Travellers.
September S&P 500
The S&P had its biggest Daily fall for the year-to-date, testing the 4232, 50-Day Moving Average with a low of 4224 before rallying into the close and again overnight to sit at 4277 this morning. Internally the market has been hammered. Two or three times a year the McClellan Oscillator gives a strong buy signal and we have one this morning as the MO closed at an extremely oversold -300. Normally a -250 print will set up a strong rally. Yesterday, my S&P plan worked well with the market hitting my 4240 buy level before rallying to my 4253 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 4238/4353 with a wider 4221 ‘’Closing Stop’’ which is just below yesterday’s low print. The S&P has short-term resistance from 4293/4308 where I will be a seller with a 4321 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4367. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4282.
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1.1710/1.1750 with the same 1.1685 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1780.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a small seller from 93.10/93.50 with the same 93.75 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.85.
My DAX plan did not work well as the DAX sliced through the key 15300 support level, closing at 15100. I bought the DAX at an average rate of 15245 before getting stopped at 15155. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the DAX again at 15070 before cutting this position too early at 15112 and I am now flat. The DAX has support from 14910/14980 where I will again be a buyer with a 14845 stop. We have resistance from 15340/15410 where I will be a small seller with a tight 15455 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15040. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15290.
The FTSE traded the whole of my buy range for a 6800 average long position. This morning as I post my Daily Commentary, the FTSE has hit my 6820 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again be a buyer from 6740/6790 with a 6695 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6830.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow gapped lower at yesterday’s open, slicing through its 34383, 50 Day Moving Average, hitting a low of 33741 before rebounding to sit at 34225 this morning. This initial move lower had me long at 34305 before being stopped at 34125. Subsequently, I bought the Dow again at 34050 and 33900. I covered the 33900 buy level at 33965, and I have now exited my 34050 buy level here at 34225 and I am now flat. The Dow has resistance from 34320/34470 where I will be a small seller with a 34605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 33850/33980 with a 33695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34210. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34120.
The NASDAQ hit both of my buy levels yesterday. As I had so many open positions at the same time, I covered my 14480 second buy level at 14515 and my initial 14560 buy level at 14570 and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has resistance from 14710/14800 where I will be a seller with a 14880 stop. My only interest in buying the NASDAQ is from 14380/14300 with a 14225 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14645. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14480
The Bund hit my second sell level at 175.70 and I am now short at an average price of 172.45. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 172.20 while leaving my 176.05 tight stop unchanged.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1770/1785 with a 1759 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1792
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver hit my second buy level at 25.10 for a now 25.40 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 25.45 while leaving my 24.75 stop unchanged.
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