On 20/09/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets tumbled to end the week, led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed lower by 1.18% after a volatile trading session. Markets opened lower and fell throughout the day. The downward pressure continued on stocks, with only a few catalysts on Friday. Consumer Sentiment rose from the prior month and beat estimates, but it remained near the lowest levels in almost a decade. All eyes are now on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, looking for any clues on when the central bank will begin tapering its asset purchases. Given the recent softness in economic data (like Jobless Claims last Thursday and the choppy Retail Sales), Guggenheim Investments said that the Fed could push back the start of its taper until December, from November. In terms of infrastructure and the government spending bill, the outlook is unclear. A few moderate Democrats are still against the $3.5 trillion price tag on the spending bill. Late on Friday, the FDA voted against approving COVID-19 booster shots for the general public. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank internal economic-forecast models suggest inflation could hit its target ahead of schedule, implying sooner than anticipated interest rate hikes. U.K. Retail Sales data for August unexpectedly fell, as consumers pulled back on spending. Euro-Zone final consumer price index (“CPI”) data for August matched the preliminary reading and estimates, with food and fuel as the biggest additions to inflation. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China added $14 billion worth of liquidity to the financial system via reverse repos, in an attempt to support easy access to funds. Japan’s Health Ministry was said to be preparing to offer COVID-19 booster shots to the public, eight months after the second dose, boosting the growth outlook. The Bank of Korea warned adoption of a potential carbon tax could weigh on the country’s economic output by as much as 0.3% each year through 2050. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Chiu Chui-cheng said China was stoking regional political tensions by refusing to disavow its intent to reclaim Taiwan. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.84% as U.S. Gulf of Mexico production began to come back online after Hurricane Ida, while Gold fell 1% on Dollar strength. This Morning U.S Equity Futures Markets are opening sharply lower on growth worries and the fact that both the S&P and Dow are trading below their respective 50-Day Moving Averages.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 735 points last week and is now ahead by 1491 points for September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.91% lower at a price of 4432.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 166 points lower for a 0.48% loss at a price of 34,584.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.18% lower at a price of 15,333.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.57% lower at a price of 30,008
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.5% lower at $1.1729.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.3727.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2%, closing at $109.96.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at -0.28%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at 0.84%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points higher at 1.37%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 05% higher at $71.91 a barrel.
Gold closed 1% lower at $1,754 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German CPI which fell . The only other data of note is the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index which will be released at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
The S&P has fallen over 140 Handles since my last update. I did four updated emails to my Platinum Service last week, leading to consecutive gains in the S&P. I am not going to list every trade as it will take too long. This morning the S&P is trading below my 4389/4407 support level and I am now long at a price of 4389. I will add to this trade at 4369 with a lower 4355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. At Friday’s close, the CME is now delisting the full S&P 500 Futures Contract and moving all the volume to the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract. The big S&P Contract started trading in 1982 and had a nominal value of $250 per full handle. I will have a T/P level on my latest long position at 4405 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with an update for my Platinum Members. On Friday, the S&P closed just below its 50 -Day Moving Average. (4425) We have resistance from 4428/4443 where I will be a small seller with a 4455 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4417.
The Euro traded higher to my 1.1835 T/P level on my latest 1.1805 long position before selling off late in the week to sit at 1.1725 this morning. The Euro has strong support from 1.1640/1.1680 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.1595 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1720.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as I had no sell level during last week’s 1.20% rally. The Dollar has resistance from 93.50/94.00 where I will be a seller with a 94.45 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 94.30.
My DAX plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my sell range for a 15650 average short position before selling off to my 15590 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX has short-term support from 15080/15160 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 14995 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15220.
The FTSE is opening lower at 6841 this morning. I am still flat. We have strong support from 6740/6800 where I will be a strong buyer with a 6695 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6860.
Dow Rolling Contract
Just like the S&P above, my Dow plan worked well last week, leading to consecutive gains for my Platinum Members. I am now flat the Dow as I look to buy the market on any further dip lower to 33950/34130 with a 33795 wider ”Closing Stop” stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34320.
Finally, we saw an aggressive sell-off in the NASDAQ on Friday, falling over 200 points, to sit at a price of 15280 this morning. The NASDAQ has strong support from 15050/15150 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 14975 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This support is just below the 50 Day MA which comes in at a price of 15155. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15230.
On Friday, the Bund finally sold off to my 170.85 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 171.20 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 170.40 while leaving my stop unchanged for now at 169.85. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold got hit hard last Thursday and Friday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 1761 average long position. I will leave my stop unchanged at 1743 while lowering my T/P level to 1767.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 23.95 average long Silver position did not work well as I was stopped out of this trade last Thursday at 23.25 and I am still flat. It was a good stop as we are trading 4% lower at 22.38 this morning. Silver has strong support from 21.50/22.10 where I will again be a buyer with a 20.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 22.60.
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