On 20/10/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets spent another day in the green, finishing the day higher, led by the S&P 500 which closed higher by 074%, helping the VIX to fall by 4%. Markets opened higher and held onto the gains for the rest of the day. In terms of economic data, Housing Starts and Building Permits fell in September and missed estimates. But they remain elevated on a historical basis, showing that the housing market is still strong. Earnings season remains a catalyst for markets, with notably strong reports from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Travelers (TRV) yesterday. This should continue to be a driver for stocks as the reports pick up in the coming days and weeks. In the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, striking a conciliatory tone on Trade, said any problems regarding the Irish border protocol with the European Union would be fixed. European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said inflation should drop below 2% next year, adding there is no rush to raise Interest Rates before late 2022. Germany’s Health Minister Jens Spahn suggested ending the country’s pandemic state of emergency in November, meaning all COVID-19 related restrictions would be removed. In Asia, China’s government was said to be dialling back its economic reform push, as some of those changes, such as reducing leverage and carbon emissions, are hurting household expenses. Japan’s Economic Security Minister Takayuku Kobayashi said the country’s semiconductor manufacturing industry would become insignificant without a concrete government commitment. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s October Meeting Minutes showed policymakers expect growth to rebound going forward as COVID-19 vaccination uptake increases. North Korea was said to have fired two ballistic missiles, one from land and another from the sea, potentially stoking regional political tensions. Elsewhere, Oil gained 0.63% as investors continued to bet on a shortage of energy supply, while Bitcoin rose over 4% as the first bitcoin futures-linked exchange-traded fund began trading.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 75 points yesterday and is now ahead by 644 points for October after making 2866 points in September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.74% higher at a price of 4519.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 198 points higher for a 0.56% gain at a price of 35,457.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.72% higher at a price of 15,410.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.65% higher at a price of 29,215.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.1635.
The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.3790.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $114.27.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at -0.11%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 1.16%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed five basis points higher at 1.64%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.63% higher at $82.96 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.15% lower at $1,763.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German PPI at 7.00 am. At the same time we will see UK CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index. This is followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am and U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Quarles at 600 pm and the Fed Beige Book at 7.00 pm.
December S&P 500
The S&P has now risen by almost 200 Handles since last Wednesday as this relentless ‘’buy everything’’ rally shows no sign of ending despite Bond Yields rising to their highest level in Four months, Oil hitting its highest level since 2014 and the Atlanta GDP Now Forecast lowered yet again for Q3 to just 0.5%. The Fed continue to say they will taper but of course we all know that have no appetite to do any such thing as the last time they tried to taper in Q4 2018, the S&P fell over 20%. Trying to sell the S&P is a trying experience. After the S&P hit my second sell level at 4490 for a 4480 average short position I was stopped out of this trade at 4505 and I am now flat. The S&P is now within 0.5% of its 4550 September 3rd high. I will now raise my buy level to 4475/4490 with a 4463 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the Beige Book this evening I do not want to be short the S&P at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4502.
The Euro hit my 1.1660 sell level before selling off to my 1.1635 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro has further resistance from 1.1695/1.1745 where I will again be a seller with a tight 1.1781 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 11665.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. I will now lower my sell level to 94.15/94.55 with a lower 94.91 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 93.90.
The DAX continues to trade heavy and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 15330/15410 with a tight 15275 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15455.
The FTSE again traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. The FTSE has resistance from 7260/7310 where I will be a small seller with a 7355 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 7090/7140 with a higher 7045 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7230.
Dow Rolling Contract
I was lucky with my Dow call yesterday as the market traded higher to my 35440 sell level before lunch before thankfully trading lower to my 34290 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the Dow is trading higher at 35500 as I go to press. We are less than 150 points from all-time highs after rallying over 1700 points since the beginning of October as yet again anyone holding on to any short position gets slammed. Today, I will be a seller from 35700/35880 with a 36125 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given how overbought the Dow is trading I still do not want to be long the market at this time. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35580.
I am still flat the NASDAQ and for the second consecutive trading session I am going to stay out of the market preferring to observe the price action.
The BUND traded lower to my 168.45 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this position on any further move lower to 167.90 with a now lower 168.70 T/P level. My stop is at 167.55 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold as the market tries to build value above this week’s 1760 low print. I still do not trust this market, preferring to leave my 1730/1745 buy level unchanged with the same 1719 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1753.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Silver again built value above $23. I will now raise my buy level to 22.60/23.20 with a 21.95 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.55.
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