U.S. Equity Markets got hit hard on Friday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard stoked inflation fears, with the Dow leading the decline with a loss of 1.60%, leading to a surge of 16.62% in the VIX. Comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard spooked markets. Bullard said that he sees the first interest rate hike coming as soon as 2022. This was quicker than the Fed’s dot plot showed in last week’s policy meeting. These comments sparked concerns that the Fed would remove support sooner than many investors expect. But he said it would take at least a few meetings for the central bank to figure out exactly how to remove support, so the easy-money policies should remain in place until the end of the year. Elsewhere, Senate Democrats were said to consider infrastructure spending legislation worth as much as $6 trillion if they fail to garner Republican support for their current proposal. European Markets closed lower. German Producer Price Index data for May were stronger than expected, hitting the highest level since 2008, driven by higher costs for energy and basic goods. European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said the regional economy continues to make good progress, and there is no reason to extend pandemic measures to traditional policy tools. UK Retail Sales surged in May, but missed estimates, as loosened COVID-19 restrictions brought back consumer spending. In Asia, The Bank of Japan extended the expiration of COVID-19 measures by six months, while saying it stands ready to provide more monetary support if necessary. Japan’s core consumer price index data for May were stronger than expected, but remained in contraction territory for the second straight month, implying continued economic support. The Federal Communications Commission advanced a proposal that would ban communications networks using equipment from Chinese companies deemed National Security threats. Meanwhile. Bitcoin fell 6% as the SEC delayed a ruling on a bitcoin ETF, while Gold fell 0.27% on further Dollar strength.
To mark my 2325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 315 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1019 points for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.31% lower at a price of 4166.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 533 points lower for a 1.60% loss at a price of 33,290.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.81% lower at a price of 14,049.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.3%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 3.29% lower at a price of 28,010.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.1869.
The British Pound closed 0.8% lower at 1.3810.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3%, closing at $109.82.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.21%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.75%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed nine basis points lower at 1.42%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.91% higher at $71.54 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.27% lower at $1,764.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data on either side of the Atlantic. At 1.30 pm we have the U.S Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Finally, at 3.15 pm we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde while the Fed’s Williams is due to speak at 8.00 pm.
September S&P 500
The S&P got hit hard on Friday as the 3Rd Standard Deviation at 4221 finally proved to be strong resistance, with the S&P falling over 60 Handles, with 20 of these Handles happening just before the close My S&P plan did not work well as after buying the market at 4175, I was stopped out of this trade at 4157 and I am still flat. As a result of Friday’s aggressive sell-off, the S&P has resistance from 4182/4197 where I will be a seller with a 4209 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has strong support from 4120/4135 which must hold as a break and close below 4115 will signal further downside to 3985 and then 3935/3900. This would signal that we have a Long-Term Top in the S&P. Today, I will be a strong buyer from 4118/4133 with a 4099 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4168. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4149.
The Euro sold off to my second buy level at 1.1860 for a now 1.1887 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1905 while leaving my 1.1815 stop unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
Just before the New York close on Friday, The Dollar rallied to my 92.30 sell level. I am still short as I look to add to this trade at 92.80 while leaving my 93.15 stop unchanged. As I am also long the Euro, I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 92.05.
This morning the DAX gapped lower to the bottom of Friday’s buy range at 15310 before having a small rally, which enabled me to cover this position at my 15360 revised T/P level as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The DAX is now trading over 400 points lower from last Thursday’s highs. However, for me to turn bearish we need to break and close below the key 15150/15220 support area. This morning, I will be a small buyer here with a 15095 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15270.
The FTSE traded the whole of Friday’s buy range for a now 6917 average long position. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 6955 while leaving my 6865 tight stop unchanged.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow got hit hard on Friday, closing lower for the 11th consecutive trading session. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range filled for a 33535 average long position before getting stopped out of this trade near the close at 33325 and I am still flat. Friday’s 500 point sell-off leaves the market facing strong resistance from 33520/33700 where I will be a seller with a 33850 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has short-term support from 32980/32750 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 32595 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 33360. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 33175.
The NASDAQ continues to outperform both the S&P and Dow at this time. I am still flat as the market just missed my 14250 initial sell level. Friday’s move lower leaves strong resistance from 14130/14230 where I will be a seller with a 14305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has support from 13810/13710 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 13625 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14060. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13890.
The Bund traded lower to my 172.40 T/P level on Thursday’s 172.65 short position and I am still flat. The Bund has further resistance from 173.10/173.60 where I will again be a seller with a 174.05 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.80.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold juts missed my 1760 buy level with a 1761 low print before rallying to sit at 1777 this morning. Today, I will leave my 1745/1760 buy level unchanged with the same 1733 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1768.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 24.85/25.45 with a higher 24.49 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.75.
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