U.S. Equity Markets started the week in positive territory as Friday’s losses were reversed, led by the Dow which closed higher by 1.76%. Markets bounced back after last week’s decline. St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard continued his speaking tour, saying that inflation could also come in at the top of the predicted range in 2022. But he noted that the taper discussion was just starting, and it is going to be a while before it is implemented. Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan also spoke, reiterating that the Fed will gradually withdraw its support for the economy. Both of these points indicate that the easy money policies will remain in place. European Markets closed higher. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said progress was made on reshaping its strategic goals, including inflation, during Governing Council talks this weekend. European and American officials warned Iran that nuclear accord negotiations are not open-ended following the country’s election of a hardline judge as president. Credit-ratings agency Fitch revised its 2021 and 2022 Gross Domestic Product outlook higher for the U.K., citing a stronger economic backdrop. In Asia, Inflation fears stoked investor concerns that central banks may raise interest rates sooner than later, after the Federal Reserve’s James Bullard suggested the possibility last Friday. The People’s Bank of China left its key one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged, signalling the central bank believes inflation pressures should ease. South Korea’s preliminary exports for June saw the rate of growth slow versus May as demand from China cooled, implying other economies may soon do the same. Australia’s preliminary retail sales for May were weaker than expected, falling versus April, as another round of social-distancing restrictions in the state of Victoria weighed. Elsewhere, Bitcoin slumped 8% as China continued to crack down on cryptocurrency mining, while Oil jumped 2.58% on little news.
To mark my 2325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 319 points yesterday and is now ahead by 700 points for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 1.40% higher at a price of 4224.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 586 points higher for a 1.76% gain at a price of 33,876.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.62% higher at a price of 14,137.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 3.07% higher at a price of 28,870.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1910.
The British Pound closed 0.8% higher at 1.3902.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4%, closing at $110.47.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at -0.17%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.77%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed eight basis points higher at 1.50%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.58% higher at $73.38 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.80% higher at $1,780.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. At 3.00 pm we have U.S Existing Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. At the same time, we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence. Finally, at 7.00 pm Fed Chairman is scheduled to testify before a House Subcommittee on Pandemic Lending and the Economy.
September S&P 500
There is no doubt that the Central Banks intervened in Equity Markets shortly after I posted yesterday morning, driving the S&P higher by 100 Handles, negating Friday’s break of the key 4165 support level, to sit above the 3rd Standard Deviation at 4220 this morning. The U.S Indexes have been frustrating to trade over the past few months especially for me with the market stopping me out of a nice long position on Friday near the close before doing the same with a 4190 short position yesterday when I was stopped out at 4209 and I am now flat. Volatility will remain high as we wait for the Powell Testimony at 7.00 pm. The S&P has further resistance from 4232/4247 where I will again be a small seller with a 4261 ‘’Closing Stop’’ which is just above the all-time high of 4257 for the September Contract. The S&P has support from 4182/4197 and I will now raise my buy level to this area with a 4165 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4220. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4208.
The Equity rally saw the Euro traded higher to my 1.1905 T/P level on Friday’s 1.1887 average long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1820/1.1865 with a 1.1785 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1898.
September Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 92.05 T/P level on my 92.30 short position and I am now flat. The Dollar has resistance from 92.25/92.75 where I will again be a seller with a 93.10 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 91.95.
In Hindsight I should have held on to yesterday’s 15310 long position as this was just above the key 15250 support level. This morning, the DAX is trading 300 points higher at 15600. We have resistance from 15700/15780 where I will be a small seller with a 15845 tight stop. The DAX has support from 15280/15350 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 15215 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15645. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15395.
The FTSE reversed earlier losses by trading higher to my 6955 T/P level on my 6917 average long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 6905/6955 with a 6859 stop which is just below yesterday morning’s low print. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6985.
Dow Rolling Contract
Since the Dow made a high of 34849 on June 1, the Dow had closed lower for thirteen days, including a loosing streak of 11 trading sessions, before reversing a large portion of these losses yesterday, to sit at 33950 this morning. This move higher saw the VIX fall 14%, closing at 17.89 last night. Meanwhile the McClellan Oscillator improved off Friday’s -177 print to close higher at -84 last night. There is nothing more frustrating for a trader than getting stopped out of a long position one day before getting stopped out of a short position the next trading session as I did yesterday after shorting the market at 33610 before being stopped at 33850 and I am still flat. The Dow has further resistance from 34020/34180 where I will again be a seller with a 34285 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has support from 33560/33720 where I will be a buyer with a 33435 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 33895. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 33855.
After the NASDAQ finally traded higher to my 14130 sell level we saw a small sell-off to my revised 14100 T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has short-term support from 14040/13950 where I will be a buyer with a 13865 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has near-term resistance from 14195/14275 where I will be a seller with a 14355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14100. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14135.
I am still flat the Bund as the market sold off just as I posted yesterday morning. The Bund has resistance from 172.60/173.10 and I will now lower my sell level to this area with a lower 173.45 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1748/1763 with a tight 1739 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1770.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 24.85/25.45 with the same 24.49 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.75.
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