On 23/04/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble of TraderNoble.com.

U.S. Equity Markets fell despite upbeat economic data, finishing the day lower, led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed lower by 1.25%. As a result the VIX spiked for the second consecutive trading session, closing 7% higher. Markets rose throughout the morning on strong jobs data. Initial jobless claims fell once again, hitting a post-pandemic low for the second straight week. Continuing Claims also hit the lowest level in more than a year. This is a strong sign for the economic rebound. In other economic data, Existing Home Sales fell. However, homes only lasted 18 days on the market, which is another strong showing for housing demand. Markets sold off in the afternoon on reports that President Joe Biden was open to raising the Capital Gains Tax Rate. Biden is expected to make the proposal sometime next week. The consequence could be less investment in the stock market. If individuals are going to be penalised for owning stocks, why would they invest? This is why markets sold off sharply on the headline. In contrast, European Markets closed higher. The European Central Bank’s monetary policy release was the big story in Europe. The central bank left rates unchanged, as expected. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank will keep policy accommodative, as the recent wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe likely pushed the region into a recession again. She added that the ECB will accelerate the purchase of bonds in order to keep borrowing costs low. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi was said to be preparing a $265 billion recovery package to overhaul the country’s economy, with focus on infrastructure and green energy. Russia’s economic ministry lowered its 2021 growth outlook from 3.4% to 2.9% because of a gradual increase in oil production. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China injected another $1.54 billion worth of liquidity into the financial system via reverse repurchase operations. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike told reporters she had made a formal request to the government to reinstate a state of emergency to try and bring rising coronavirus infections back under control. National Australia Bank’s first-quarter business confidence index showed companies’ outlook is improving, which should portend expanding economic activity. Elsewhere, Bitcoin continued its recent sell-off, closing 4.5% lower while Gold fell 0.53% on Dollar strength.

To mark my 2300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 290 points yesterday and is now ahead by 554 points for April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, having made 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.92% lower at a price of 4135.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 321 points lower for a 0.94% loss at a price of 33,816.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.24% lower at a price of 13,762.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1%.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.38% higher at a price of 29,188.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher

The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.2015.

The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at $1.3840.

The Japanese Yen closed 0.2% lower at 107.92 per dollar.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.26%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at 0.73%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower at 1.54%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 044% higher at $61.21 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.53% lower at $1,784.20 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Retail Sales and the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement at 7.00 am. This is followed by German, UK, Euro-Zone and U.S Markit Manufacturing/Services PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 am and 2.45 pm respectively. Finally, we have New Hole Sales at 3.00 pm and a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 3.30 pm.

June S&P 500

My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 4136 initial buy level before thankfully rallying to my 4148 T/P level and I am still flat. As long as the S&P continues to trade below the key 4147/4162 resistance area I am happy to be a seller. Today, I will be a seller on any rally to this area with a 4185 wider and ‘’Closing Stop’’. I am watching the VIX closely as a break and close over 20 will attract S&P selling.  The S&P has initial support from 4081/4096 where I will be a buyer with a 4069 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4137. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4110.

EUR/USD

I am still flat and today I will lower my buy level to 1.1925/1.1970 while leaving my stop unchanged at a tight 1.1895. Ahead of the weekend I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2000.

June Dollar Index

No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 90.55/90.95 with the same 89.95 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 91.25.

June DAX

Continued aggressive bond buying from the ECB prevented the DAX from following the U.S Indexes lower. I still do not trust the DAX but the market needs to break and close below 14900 for me to turn bearish. The DAX has initial support from 14940/15020 and I will be a buyer in this area with a tight 14865 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15065.

June FTSE

The weakness in Sterling prevented the FTSE from trading lower yesterday and I am still flat. I will leave my 6760/6810 buy level unchanged with the same 6705 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6840.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow trading in a wider 450 point range yesterday as the market  again met strong resistance at the now key 34150/34300 resistance area. In my opinion the Dow is close to making at least a short-term top. The price action in Bitcoin has resembled the Dow’s move over the past 12 months and with Bitcoin getting hit again as I go to press, we need to keep an eye on this market along  with the VIX as mentioned in my S&P commentary above. The Dow has strong support from 33400/33580 and I will be an aggressive buyer on any dip to this area with a 33195 wider and ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 33740.

June NASDAQ

My latest 13920 short position worked well with the market trading lower to my 13860 buy level. Subsequently the market got hit hard, trading lower to my 13730 buy level before rallying into the close as my 13770 revised T/P level was filled and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has strong support from 13480/13580 and I will be an aggressive buyer on any dip to this area with a 13375 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has resistance from 13850/13930 where I will again be a seller with a 14005 ”Closing Stop”. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13650. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 13790.

June BUND

I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 170.00/170.40 with a higher and tight 169.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 170.70.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still a buyer from 1745/1759 with the same 1732 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1765.

Silver Rolling Contract

The boring sideways price action in Silver continued yesterday and I am still flat. I will not chase this market higher and I will leave my  25.00/25.60 buy level unchanged with the same 24.65 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.90.

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