On 23/07/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets traded sideways for most of the session before a late rally saw the Indexes close higher. The NASDAQ 100 led the move, closing with a gain of 0.66%. Jobless claims were the big story of the day, rising unexpectedly and coming in above estimates. Claims also hit the highest level in about two months. And the four-week moving average of Jobless Claims rose as well. But the “buy the dip” mentality remained alive and well. Equities rallied sharply off their midday lows, showing strong appetite for any perceived buying opportunity. On infrastructure, Wednesday’s procedural vote failed on party lines. But Senators remained hopeful a deal could be struck next week as the details were worked out. Corporate buybacks continue to provide support for equity markets, with companies announcing the largest amounts of buybacks in the second quarter since 2018, according to data from EPFR Global. European Markets closed higher. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said he still sees the current spike in inflation as temporary, saying the economy is lapping easy comparisons from last year. French Business Confidence data for July hit its highest level since April 2018, as orders from foreign customers boosted sentiment. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) announced its new policy framework yesterday afternoon. The Governing Council agreed to a symmetric inflation target of 2% over the medium term. The central bank added that it expects bond purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (“PEPP”) to be higher over the current quarter compared to earlier this year. The ECB expects economic activity to return to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2022. But it said a lot of work is left to be done. This was an extremely dovish announcement, which signals that support will remain in place. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China’s recent moves to boost financial system liquidity have allowed regional governments to raise debt at the lowest yield spread to sovereign debt since 2019. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said the central bank stands ready to provide more monetary stimulus if the economy requires it. The Korean Disease Control and Prevention Agency said roughly 19% of the population had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine shot while more than 13% were fully vaccinated. National Australia Bank’s second-quarter business confidence survey showed current condition sentiment hit a record high on increasing optimism about profitability. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.05% higher as it rallied with risk assets, while Bitcoin rose 3%, continuing its rebound after briefly falling below $30,000.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 29 points yesterday and is now ahead by 734 points for July after making 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.20% higher at a price of 4367.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 25 points higher for a 0.07% gain at a price of 34,823.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.66% higher at a price of 14,940.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%
This morning, the Nikkei was closed due to a bank holiday for the Olympics having finished last Wednesday at a price of 27,548.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.1765.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.3740.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $110.27.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.41%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points lower at 0.57%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points lower at 1.28%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.05% higher at $71.91 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.23% higher at $1,805.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone, UK and U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 am and 2.45 pm respectively. This is the only data of note on either side of the Atlantic.
September S&P 500
The S&P closed over the key 4333 pivot point as the market frustratingly again missed my initial 4337 buy level with a 4341 low print before surging to sit at 4372 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 4337/4353 with a higher 4323 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Much to my angst the S&P is trading just shy of its 4383 all time high. Ahead of the weekend, I do not want to be short the market. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4363.
The Euro hit a rebound high of 1.1830, on dovish comments from Lagarde, before selling off to my initial 1.1760 buy level. As I did not want to be long overnight, I covered this position at my 1.1772 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, my buy level will be from 1.1680/1.1720 with a lower 1.1645 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1750.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a small seller from 93.05/93.45 with the same 93.81 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 92.80.
Despite the DAX again closing over 15500, I am reluctant to chase the market higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 15280/15350 with a higher 15215 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15395.
The FTSE traded lower to my 6890 buy level before rallying to sit slightly higher at 6925 this morning. I covered this position at my 6907 revised T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will be a buyer on any dip lower to 6810/6860 with a lower 6765 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6895.
Dow Rolling Contract
The negative divergence with the NASDAQ continues. This morning the Sept Nasdaq contract is trading at a new all time high while internally the McClellan Oscillator weakened, closing at – 113 last night, compared to Wednesday’s -56 print. Ahead of the weekend I will now raise my sell level to 35080/35230 with a tight 35305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my buy level to 34600/34750 with a higher 34495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34980. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34890.
Better than expected earnings from Intel sees the NASDAQ trading at a new all-time high this morning, as this relentless bull market continues despite the weakening economic situation I will now raise my buy level to 14780/14860 with a higher 14695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14925.
The Bund fell shy of my 176.20 sell level with a 176.13 high print before selling off to trade at 175.80 this morning. I will now lower my sell level to 176.10/176.60 with a 176.95 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 175.85.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 1765/1780 with the same 1752 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1787.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long at 25.40 with the same 24.75 stop. This morning Silver is trading higher at 25.45 and I will leave my 25.80 T/P level unchanged.
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