On 23/09/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets surged on the day of the Fed’s policy announcement, finishing the day higher, led by the Dow which closed with a gain of 1%. This move higher saw the VIX close 14% lower at a price of 20.87. Markets opened sharply higher before the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement in the evening. The news of Evergrande preparing to pay a coupon payment on its debt was the big driver, as it would mean that the worst-case scenario would be avoided. In its policy meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected. But the Fed also said that it could soon begin tapering its asset purchases if the economy’s recovery proceeds as expected. In his post-policy meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that fully tapering asset purchases by the middle of 2022 would likely be an appropriate timeline. In terms of economic data, Existing Home Sales fell, breaking a two-month string of gains. But importantly, the data beat estimates. European Markets closed higher. European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller said it could boost its Quantitative Easing programme once the current emergency-asset purchases expire. Italy’s Industrial Sales data for July increased, but the pace of growth slowed versus June as the data lapped more difficult year-over-year comparisons. Germany’s Federal Finance Agency Chief Tammo Diemer said it would reduce the amount of debt it sells in the fourth quarter by $4.69 billion. In Asia, China Evergrande’s main Hengda Real Estate unit said it negotiated terms with bondholders to make interest payments due September 23. The People’s Bank of China injected $14 billion worth of liquidity into the financial system via reverse repurchase operations in an attempt to boost access to funds. The Bank of Japan maintained its current monetary policy ahead of next week’s general election, saying it believes global growth will continue to support the ongoing economic rebound. The Asian Development Bank said the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant continues to provide a risk to its regional growth forecast of 7.1% for this year. Elsewhere, Oil rose 218% after EIA data showed a larger than expected decline in U.S. crude inventories, while Gold fell 0.52% on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 285 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2191 points for September, having closed August with a gain of 1543 points, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, and 2273 points last December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.95% lower at a price of 4395.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 338 points higher for a 1.0% gain at a price of 34,258.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.99% higher at a price of 15,176.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.67% lower at a price of 29,639
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1695.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3635.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4%, closing at $109.87.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed eight basis points lower at 0.72%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.32%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.18% higher at $72.93 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.52% lower at $1,762 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Services PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am and 930 am respectively. This is followed at 12.00 pm by the Bank of England Rate Decision. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Finally, we have Markit Services PMI at 2.45 pm and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 4.00 pm.
December S&P 500
After the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a 4385 average short position we had a small sell-off to my revised 4384 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to re-sell the S&P again at a price of 4402 before the market traded lower to my 4388 T/P level and I am now flat The S&P has now rallied over 110 Handles off Monday’s 4295 low print as yet again anyone short the S&P has to be quick to take their profit. The downside breakaway gap from last Friday at 4425 continues and it will take a break and close above here for me to turn short-term bullish. Today, I will be a seller on any further rally to 4412/4427 with a 4441 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 4340/4355 with a 4329 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4401. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4368.
Following the release of the FOMC Statement, the Euro traded lower to my 1.1690 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 1.1720 T/P level. I will now raise my stop on this position to 1.1675 and if any of the above levels are filled, I will be back with an updated email for my Platinum Members.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my 93.45 sell level. I am still short with a now lower 93.71 stop and a T/P level at 93.20.
Thankfully, we had no sell level in either the FTSE or DAX yesterday, as both markets have surged over the past 24 hours. The DAX has now rallied over 600 points since Monday’s low to open at 15610 this morning. The DAX has support from 15380/15460 and I will raise my buy level to this area with a tight 15295 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15520
The FTSE never came close to yesterday’s 6910 initial buy level before surging to open higher at 7100 this morning. The FTSE is now on a buy signal as we closed over 7020. I will now raise my buy level to 6980/7040 with a higher 6935 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7075.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 34350 sell level with a high of 34440, before selling off to a post FOMC Statement low at 34195. This move lower enabled me to cover this short position at my 34280 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The Dow has strong resistance from 34570/34730 where I will again be a seller with a tight 34845 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has short-term support from 33750/33900 and I will raise my buy level to this area with a higher 33625 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34450. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34050.
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 15190 sell level before selling off to my 15125 revised T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the NASDAQ is trading higher at 15230. We have resistance from 15295/15375 where I will again be a small seller with a tight 15445 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15245.
I am still flat as the BUND has again traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. I will now lower my buy level to 170.30/170.80 with a tight 169.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 171.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a small buyer from 1734/1749 with the same 1723 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1757.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 21.70/22.30 with the same 21.25 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 22.65.
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