On 24/06/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble.
U.S. Equity Markets bounced around in a narrow range as investors digest economic data, ending the day mixed with the Dow closing lower by 0.22% while the NASDAQ 100 closed with a tiny gain of 0.03%. Markets are still digesting Tuesday’s Testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Remember, he said central bank policy will be determined by the economy’s ability to recover lost jobs and not inflation forecasts. In terms of economic data, June’s IHS Markit PMI showed strength – with manufacturing PMI hitting a record high and services PMI hitting the second-highest level ever. New Home Sales fell, hitting the lowest level in a year, as tight supply continued to push prices higher. Now, all eyes will be on the personal consumption expenditures data at the end of the week, looking for clues on inflation and a possible policy shift from the Federal Reserve. European Markets declined despite positive economic data. Markit Euro-Zone’s preliminary composite PMI data for June were stronger than expected due to continued manufacturing strength. European Central Bank Governing Council members were said to be closing in on an agreement to used sustained inflation targeting, similar to the Federal Reserve. A UK survey showed that businesses are the most confident they have been on the economic outlook since 2016. In Asia, Markit Japan’s preliminary manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data for June showed the rate of growth slowed to its lowest rate since February, as a result of ongoing COVID-19 restrictions. China’s government was said to consider keeping coronavirus-related travel restrictions in place for another year in an attempt to contain the spread of new variants from abroad. Bank of Japan meeting minutes showed board members are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook, as stimulus deployed by other nations boosts global demand. Taiwan’s industrial production figures for May beat expectations, rising versus April, as technology related product demand remained strong. Elsewhere, Oil gained 0.52% gained on little news, while Bitcoin rose 1.88%.
To mark my 2350th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on [email protected] for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 39 points yesterday and is now ahead by 799 points for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
The S&P 500 closed 0.11% lower at a price of 4241.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 71 points lower for a 0.21% loss at a price of 33,874
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.03% higher at a price of 14,274.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.05% lower at a price of 28,875.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1929.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 13961.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $110.89.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.17%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 0.79%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.49%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.37% higher at $73.22 a barrel
Gold closed 0.16% lower at $1,773.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey and the Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. This is followed at 12.00 pm by the Bank of England Minutes from last month’s meeting. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP, Wholesale Inventories, PCE and Durable Goods Orders. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Williams and the Kansas City Fed Activity Index at 4.00 pm.
September S&P 500
The S&P had a small sell-off into the close but again missed my buy level before rallying 10 Handles overnight to sit at 4243 this morning. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning, the S&P traded lower to my 4234 T/P level on my 4236 latest short position and I am now flat. This morning I will be a buyer on any dip lower to 4213/4228 with a tight 4199‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P is now trading at its largest ever disconnect of asset prices and the overall economy while Market Cap versus GDP is now at a record high of 203%. On top of this Price To Sales on the S&P are at a never before seen 3.1. Since the November Presidential Election, every new high made in the Fed’s Balance Sheet has been followed by a new high in the S&P, while every dip to the 50 -Day Moving Average is met buy aggressive buying. Internally the market is weak and is a warning sign that one of these sharp sell-offs in the S&P could replicate the price action seen in Tesla and Bitcoin over the past two months. The S&P tends to rally in the last week of June and into the July 4th Holiday before summer markets take over. With the NASDAQ again at record highs this morning it is only a matter of time before we see a new high in the S&P but remember this market could rollover at any stage. I will be a small seller on any further rally to 4262/4277 with a 4291 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4240. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4251.
I am still flat as I continue to be a buyer from 1.1840/1.1890 with the same 1.1795 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1920.
September Dollar Index
I will now lower my sell level to 92.00/92.40 with a lower 92.75 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 91.70.
The DAX traded heavy for most of yesterday with the market finally hitting my 15430 buy level before rallying. I covered this position too early at my revised 15454 T/P level and I am now flat. As we know the DAX has strong support from 15240/15310 where I will again be a buyer with a 15185 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15355.
The FTSE traded in a narrow range yesterday before having a small sell-off into the close. I am still flat and I will now lower my buy level 6910/6960 with a lower 6875 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6990.
Dow Rolling Contract
In contrast to both the NDX and S&P, the Dow traded heavy albeit in a narrow range for all of yesterday’s session and I am still flat. I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 34170/34320 with the same 34405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has support from 33650/33800 where I will be a small buyer with a 33495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 33925. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34050.
Thankfully the NASDAQ sold off to my 14240 exit level on my 14235 average short position from Tuesday and I am now flat. I will continue to be an aggressive buyer on any dip lower to 14100/14190 with the same 13995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NASDAQ has resistance from 14380/14450 where I will be a small seller with a 14525 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14260. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 14325.
The Bund sold off 40 points yesterday and I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase the Bund lower and I will leave my 172.65/173.10 sell level unchanged with the same 173.45 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 172.35.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today, I will lower my buy level to 1742/1757 with a lower 1729 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1765.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver again traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. I will leave my 24.95/25.55 buy level unchanged with the same 24.62 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 25.85.
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